Originally Posted by fletchdad
^^^^^^ You mean TT-JJ only, I guess? I was just thinking how a guy like this would play, and what his calling range is, but you have a point, . TT is certainly in it, and JJ as well, it depends, since a squeeze could also warrant a 4 bet with JJ just for the FE as well as flopability..??
I was mostly thinking that his 3-bet% is a mere 4%, so his 3-bet range is basically JJ+/AK, and since he's OOP, he might even be calling with JJ.
Of course, since he's up against a weaker opponent, he should be more eager to 3-bet JJ/TT/AQ here, but we don't know how much of a thinking player he is.
So yeah, he likely doesn't have QQ+/AK here, and JJ is a toss-up.
TT/99 and suited broadways and connectors are his most likely range here.
A lot of those outflopped us, and a big part of those that didn't won't continue on a flop like that. That's why I like the check on the flop.
Since he didn't fire on the turn, I would take a stab at it for 50-60% of the pot.
I would check the river back as well, but I really like Fig's suggestion of making a thin value bet here by betting 25-30% of the pot.
At these stakes they're not bluff-raising in a spot like this, and we're going to get "bluff-catching" calls by weaker two-pairs and Kx hands.
Most opponents that DO have a J will likely call as well, as they wouldn't want to bloat the pot since they're most likely chopping, and getting more money in simply means they'll pay more rake and win less