$10 NLHE 6-max: Small overpair with gutshot facing min-raise

Hand#3058012688000183 - Paris (6-max) 12688 -- $0.05/$0.10 NL Hold'em -- 2012/08/19 - 00:24:37
Dealer: Seat 1
Seat 1: onept5mill ($13.87 in chips)
Seat 8: BIG_MEX ($26.12 in chips)
Seat 9: btimm ($10.01 in chips)
Seat 10: BiWinning88 ($10.55 in chips)
BIG_MEX : posts big blind $0.10
Dealt to BiWinning88 [9d,9c]
btimm: folds
BiWinning88: raises to $0.30
onept5mill: folds
BIG_MEX : calls $0.20
*** FLOP *** [8c,7h,5d]
BIG_MEX : checks
BiWinning88: bets $0.40
BIG_MEX : raises to $0.80


I only have 17 hands against the villain so I'm assuming any stat info I have is useless. I'm guessing the villain's range could be anything below:
77+,55,A8,K8,T9,T8,97,87,75,64.
I'm leaning towards draws like T9 and top/middle pair. I'm assuming he thinks I didn't hit this flop, that I am c-betting with 2 overcards, and is hoping to take it right there. If he had a monster hand, I'm not sure why he doesn't bet more to keep me from drawing.

According to poker stove, my equity is about 50-50 against this range. I'm a little unsure about the best way to proceed here. Here is what I think I should consider:

Option 1: Call and try to keep the pot small. If an overcard falls on the turn, call the turn bet and fold if he continues on the river. Otherwise, call all the way, raising only if I make the gutshot or a set.

Option 2: Reraise. The tricky question is what to do if he rereraises. Assuming his range loses the weak top/middle pairs and now consists only of the monsters,overpairs, and A8/K8, I still have a 40% equity against that range. Without A8/K8 though, it's only 27%.

I'll probably have to analyze in a bit more depth what the implied/reverse implied odds are of option 1 vs the fold equity of option 2. What are your opinions on this situation?

Any conclusions are tentative since 17 hands is a very small sample, but that doesn't mean the info you have is useless. For instance, if he's 53/6, you have a rather different preliminary indication than if he's 12/12.

Call the min raise unless you think he'd call a 3bet with worse (I don't think I'd make that assumption vs an unknown).

Call any turn if he bets again and bet most turns if he doesn't.

I call. Calling the turn depends on the size of his bet. I can't see a pair+GS or TPAK potting the turn. Big bet I fold, little bet I call, check I bet.

Arjonius said:

Any conclusions are tentative since 17 hands is a very small sample, but that doesn't mean the info you have is useless. For instance, if he's 53/6, you have a rather different preliminary indication than if he's 12/12.

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+1

Please use this for your next hand.
http://www.handconverter.com

Deco said:

I call. Calling the turn depends on the size of his bet. I can't see a pair+GS or TPAK potting the turn. Big bet I fold, little bet I call, check I bet.

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+1 This

Some times your opponent will be beat but have outs, sometimes you'll be beat and have outs, and there are a few spots where villain is drawing slim and some where you are drawing slim (maybe dead by turn). W/out read on villain I think this is just one of those situations that the pot odds will dictate your action. If your ranges are in right ball park and pstove says you have 50% equity then you can obv never fold getting the price he laid on the flop. The turn will really change that 50% one way or another in a big way. You should be very elastic in your continuation here i think. Assuming brick, fold to pot sized +, call less than 2/3 pot, bet if he checks, and anything between 2/3 and 1X pot is kinda close IMO. (obviously depends on the exact turn card)

Flop min check-raises are often B.S. Pretty standard value float.

call and try to keep the pot small.

But consider this: I still have substantial all in equity against the villain's monsters. Against a two pair, I have 40% equity. Against a set, I have 23%. Against TT+, 25%. And against that entire range, I have 29% equity.

Let's say I just jam all-in right here. The pot was $1.80 and I threw in my $9.85 stack on top, villain has me covered. Assume all worse hands than mine fold and all better hands call. So A8,K8,T8,T9,98,97, and 66 fold. That's 82 combinations of hands. Everything that calls is TT+, 87,75 , and sets. That's 52 hand combos. So from doing this, I win on average $1.1 from fold equity, and lose on average -$1.4 from getting called by monsters and overpairs (29% equity with a 39% chance of a call). So theoretically, the play is only slightly -EV by -$0.30. However, this assumes that the villain makes the correct call every time, which he wont. He may not fold top pair, T9, 66, and other hands I am ahead against. At the same time, he may fold weak overpairs like TT-QQ, which comprise a significant amount of the range that dominates my hand. So based on the fact that the villain cant make the perfect call every time, I still expect this to be a +EV action.

I think calling may be the correct decision since I have position, but I think I'd be inclined to reraise/go all in if I was in the big blind. Does that seem reasonable?

If you were in the BB he couldn't c/minraise you so the point is moot.

Ah yes, good point lol

BiWinning said:

But consider this: I still have substantial all in equity against the villain's monsters. Against a two pair, I have 40% equity. Against a set, I have 23%. Against TT+, 25%. And against that entire range, I have 29% equity.

Let's say I just jam all-in right here. The pot was $1.80 and I threw in my $9.85 stack on top, villain has me covered. Assume all worse hands than mine fold and all better hands call. So A8,K8,T8,T9,98,97, and 66 fold. That's 82 combinations of hands. Everything that calls is TT+, 87,75 , and sets. That's 52 hand combos. So from doing this, I win on average $1.1 from fold equity, and lose on average -$1.4 from getting called by monsters and overpairs (29% equity with a 39% chance of a call). So theoretically, the play is only slightly -EV by -$0.30. However, this assumes that the villain makes the correct call every time, which he wont. He may not fold top pair, T9, 66, and other hands I am ahead against. At the same time, he may fold weak overpairs like TT-QQ, which comprise a significant amount of the range that dominates my hand. So based on the fact that the villain cant make the perfect call every time, I still expect this to be a +EV action.

I think calling may be the correct decision since I have position, but I think I'd be inclined to reraise/go all in if I was in the big blind. Does that seem reasonable?

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No, this is all off. You can 3-bet/get it in if his range is mostly 8x, 7x, 6x and T9. We have blockers for T9 and 98 unfortunately. Overpairs constitute a tiny percentage of his range and he won't fold them. Having a good equity share (25%-40%) is reason to call, not raise.

Call and use position.

What second best hands are you expecting to call without information on your opponent? That's always the first question you should be asking before you make a decision.

baudib1 said:

No, this is all off. You can 3-bet/get it in if his range is mostly 8x, 7x, 6x and T9. We have blockers for T9 and 98 unfortunately. Overpairs constitute a tiny percentage of his range and he won't fold them. Having a good equity share (25%-40%) is reason to call, not raise.

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Gah, I need to be more careful with my math. But yeah, I'd agree with calling now.