$10 NLHE 6-max: Small overpair with gutshot facing min-raise
Hand#3058012688000183 - Paris (6-max) 12688 -- $0.05/$0.10 NL Hold'em -- 2012/08/19 - 00:24:37
Dealer: Seat 1
Seat 1: onept5mill ($13.87 in chips)
Seat 8: BIG_MEX ($26.12 in chips)
Seat 9: btimm ($10.01 in chips)
Seat 10: BiWinning88 ($10.55 in chips)
BIG_MEX : posts big blind $0.10
Dealt to BiWinning88 [9d,9c]
BiWinning88: raises to $0.30
BIG_MEX : calls $0.20
*** FLOP *** [8c,7h,5d]
BIG_MEX : checks
BiWinning88: bets $0.40
BIG_MEX : raises to $0.80
I only have 17 hands against the villain so I'm assuming any stat info I have is useless. I'm guessing the villain's range could be anything below:
I'm leaning towards draws like T9 and top/middle pair. I'm assuming he thinks I didn't hit this flop, that I am c-betting with 2 overcards, and is hoping to take it right there. If he had a monster hand, I'm not sure why he doesn't bet more to keep me from drawing.
According to poker stove, my equity is about 50-50 against this range. I'm a little unsure about the best way to proceed here. Here is what I think I should consider:
Option 1: Call and try to keep the pot small. If an overcard falls on the turn, call the turn bet and fold if he continues on the river. Otherwise, call all the way, raising only if I make the gutshot or a set.
Option 2: Reraise. The tricky question is what to do if he rereraises. Assuming his range loses the weak top/middle pairs and now consists only of the monsters,overpairs, and A8/K8, I still have a 40% equity against that range. Without A8/K8 though, it's only 27%.
I'll probably have to analyze in a bit more depth what the implied/reverse implied odds
are of option 1 vs the fold equity of option 2. What are your opinions on this situation?