$10 NLHE 6-max: is shoving the turn correct here?

micromachine

micromachine

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Villain ~30 hands, 35/24, 3bet 17%

Just wondering whether I could have played this differently, and whether shoving the turn was the right thing to do. Should I have tried toe extract more value by calling or min-raising with my monster? And how does that balance with the risk of him hitting a better hand than mine?

Will put the rest of the hand up later.

pokerstars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (5 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (UTG) ($25.65)
MP ($23.09)
Button ($27.18)
SB ($23.90)
BB ($25)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q
diamond.gif
, Q
club.gif

Hero bets $0.30, 1 fold, Button raises to $1.50, 2 folds, Hero calls $1.20

Flop: ($3.25) 8
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, 5
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, J
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(2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $1.75, Hero calls $1.75

Turn: ($6.75) Q
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(2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $3.99, Hero raises to $22.38 (All-In),
 
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orangepeeleo

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I think a call is maybe better here, because of the stack sizes you really need the villain to have a set to call a shove there, he's aggressive enough to let him carry on betting imo.

I think with the stacks the way they are you can just c/c a scare card river or b/c if it blanks.

Although im not great at deepstack btw!
 
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baudib1

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Easy 4-bet pre.
Probably check-raise turn to like $11.


You can't take anymore action so what's the point in posting the rest of the hand?
 
tenbob

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4 bet pre.

I think that shoving the turn is far better than raising to $11 tbh. Every single hand that calls a turn raise calls a shove.
 
micromachine

micromachine

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Easy 4-bet pre.
Probably check-raise turn to like $11.


You can't take anymore action so what's the point in posting the rest of the hand?

Hmmm I didn't consider 4-betting. We would 4-bet hoping he calls with AK/AQs/JJ/TT right? If he shoved over I would have to fold, thinking he had AA/KK.

I thought people might be interested to see the result...maybe not :) If anyone is interested I will post it
 
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baudib1

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Let's see, if we 4-bet to say $5 and he ships it's $20.15 to win ~$30, no probably never folding JJ/AK to this guy.
 
micromachine

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He is aggressive but I doubt he would shove pre with worse than QQ and I really don't want to be flipping vs AK, so I would have to fold if he shoved.
I also don't want him to fold to a 4bet so the only scenario I would be happy with is if he called my 4bet.
 
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baudib1

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So rathole when you get 250 BBs then.
 
micromachine

micromachine

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So rathole when you get 250 BBs then.

You mean I am scared because I have 250BB?? Yes I am a little bit and I normally play 2NL or 5NL so this seems like a lot to me. But I don't shove AK or QQ unless vs a fish for 100BB at 5NL either
 
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baudib1

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You are allowed to play incorrectly. I mean if you were 100 BBs deep you could comfortably stack 77/AJs (paging c9). If you want to fold 99/AQ or something since we're deeping here I can see it but we have QQ vs. a fairly aggro player, his (and most people's) stackoff range is going to be more than KK+.
 
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micromachine

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Yeah his stacking off range is probably more than AA and KK, but I just wouldn't want to risk it. For 100BB maybe but not 250BB, probably because I don't have a huge BR and shouldn't really be playing at this table anyway (it is effectively a 25NL table). So I prefer to wait for less risky opportunities, like the one that presents itself later in the hand.

Maybe higher stakes players are stacking off with lesser holdings as semi-bluffs but from what I have seen at 5NL 100BB shoves preflop mean QQ+/AK 95% of the time.
 
JOEBOB69

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If we were IP would this be a good spot to flat a 3bet vs some one with a 3bet 17%?
 
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baudib1

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Maybe higher stakes players are stacking off with lesser holdings as semi-bluffs but from what I have seen at 5NL 100BB shoves preflop mean QQ+/AK 95% of the time.

If his shoving range is QQ+/AK we call
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 59.793% 57.93% 01.86% 172607388 5540034.00 { QQ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 40.207% 38.35% 01.86% 114253440 5540034.00 { QQ }

If he's going to fold worse hands when we 4-bet, it's probably a good idea since you don't seem to have a plan for flatting unless an A, K, or Q flops.
 
jbbb

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Dunno about pre. People are saying stacking is ok but we have little reason to believe this guy is gonna ship 250BB w/ less than QQ+. However being OOP makes me more want to 4bet due to having to play the hand OOP if we flat. Smaller SPR = easier decisions post flop, which we want when OOP.
So as played i'd probably 4bet for reason above, and also to see how he reacts to 4bets, maybe to set up bluffs and value hands later on. 30 Hands isn't enough to say he's 3betting light.
Also as played I really don't like the turn c/r. It's gotta be the strongest line you could have taken so only the toppest of top of his range is gonna call that (you could probably fold out AA/KK etc, whereas flatting will keep them in and set you up for a river shove/raise which is a lot more likely to call due to better odds).
 
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baudib1

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30 hands is enough to figure out his 3-bet range is reasonably wide. He doesn't have to be 3-betting light, either, he could just have a really wide value range.
 
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orangepeeleo

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What's his 3bet% sample size? Like 1/6 or something?

I think with hud stats people have a tendancy to see big numbers and ignore what sample its taken over, I think this could be one of those times??

Over 30 hands id be surprised I'd you could take anything from a 3bet stat that high
 
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baudib1

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Through 30 hands it's highly unlikely there's only been a raise to him 6 times. It's more likely to be 4/24 than 1/6.

There is almost no chance a nit plays 35/24 over any sample greater than 10 hands.

In any event we have QQ and 250 BBs, 4-betting is the correct play AINEC.
 
Nathan Williams

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I think you played it perfect. nh.
 
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BlueNowhere

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He is aggressive but I doubt he would shove pre with worse than QQ and I really don't want to be flipping vs AK, so I would have to fold if he shoved.
I also don't want him to fold to a 4bet so the only scenario I would be happy with is if he called my 4bet.

Why would you not want to go into a hand where your favourite and easily have the correct odds? +ev = call at a cash game.
 
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Gunner57

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My typical line with what I have seen would be more like 4 Bet, C-Bet, 1/2 pot Bet, All in. In most situations I would like being the aggressor with QQ OOP. By betting and being the aggressor you get to bet for value and get more information.

I think as played could be a good change up against this villain as he seems to be aggressive enough to let him build a big pot and then we pluck it on the turn.

I might be wrong on this but it seems a little odd that pre-flop you dont want to 4-bet because you think he will only call with AK/KK+ but then when the Q comes on the turn that could give him a str8 you overbet c/r. If you are afraid of loosing your buy-in 4-Bet Pre QQ then take control of the hand and bet.

As played you are hoping that he calls with lower set or str8/flush draw? I think he only calls with set of jacks or str8.
 
micromachine

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after a long think...

Button calls $18.39

River: ($51.51) 4
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(2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $51.51 | Rake: $2

Results:
Button had K
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, K
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(one pair, Kings).
Hero had Q
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, Q
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(three of a kind, Queens).
Outcome: Hero won $49.51
 
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