$10 NLHE 6-max: Should I Have Jammed?

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SpeedBump621

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I'm learning to LAGG. My table image is one that is punishing limpers (mostly for value) with a few 3bets with hands that play well after the flop. Villain in CO and I are 100BB deep.

Villain inCO opens for 2BB (hole cards are 99)
Hero on BTN 3bets to 6BB (hole cards are suited AK)
Short stack in BB shoves 17 blinds.

Villain flats. Total Pot Size is 40BB.

Hero shoves. That's 94 additional BB. Total pot size is now 134BB

Villain calls 83BB to win a pot of 134BB. His stack was 62% the size of the pot and he was about 55% to win.

So...did I error jamming my AK here? It seems like the best odds the villain had at winning the pot were about 55%. Much worse if I actually had a pocket pair larger than his 99.

Is my math ok? Any thoughts are appreciated!
 
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looks fine to me , he's capping his range flatting the shorties 4bet so likely to be JJ- Assuming that he 5bets QQ+, AK which gives you over 50% equity and the dead money in the pot makes this an easy shove.
 
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Gabe16

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$10 NLHE 6-max: Should I Have Jammed?

Did the jam from the blinds mean anything or was he a maniac?

For you once V caps his range it's massively +EV long term. Once V calls the 4B it's unlikely you have much FE. But you don't need any. I have it at +27BB.

It's a -EV call from V.
 
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braveslice

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I would like to believe that lag would go quite much lower. I hope I’m tag and my range for shoving would be something like ATs, AJo+

CO is really very top of his range; much worse hand is more likely given 2x raise and then flat. KK to AA is possibility but quite rare.
 
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I think that your move is EV+ with 40BBs already in the pot the shove is fine to me, in addition with AKs few hands are ahead to us.

Regards!
 
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looks fine to me , he's capping his range flatting the shorties 4bet so likely to be JJ- Assuming that he 5bets QQ+, AK which gives you over 50% equity and the dead money in the pot makes this an easy shove.

Thx much for detailing your thoughts. When I shoved I just felt V was weak when he capped and I saw a good amount of dead money in the pool. So actually...I didn't reason the play out as I should have. Your insight is very helpful.

Forgive me for asking another question. I just want to be very clear on this: You say my equity was over 50% when I shoved. Is this because you assigned V a range of hands that included pairs consisting of JJ-, along with hands I'm crushing like AQ, AJ, KQ, etc?

Here is what I think you did in your head:

V could flat with JJ-77ish. There are 6 ways to deal each of these pairs. 5 different pairs multiplied by 6= 30 total hand combinations where V is about 55% to win.

V could flat with AQ, AJ, A10, KQish. Maybe more. There are 16 ways to deal each of these hands. 16 multiplied by 4= 64 total hand combinations where V has a 25% chance to win.

Is this kinda what you based your statement on? (ohh man my math is rusty I have to figure out how to properly weight each of the above hand combinations to get an exact result).
 
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SpeedBump621

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Did the jam from the blinds mean anything or was he a maniac?

For you once V caps his range it's massively +EV long term. Once V calls the 4B it's unlikely you have much FE. But you don't need any. I have it at +27BB.

It's a -EV call from V.

Yes the BB was your basic drunken short stacked maniac type player (not being disrespectful at all...different people enjoy different things:)).

I just replied to a prior post about trying to understand how the gentlemen "did the math" in his head before making a statement.

I'm curious about how you arrived at +27BB. Did u just put V on a range, calculate HERO's EV and multiply the result by the size of the pot?

LOL! I know I may sound a bit "slow" but I want to make sure I have this part of the game down so as I move up I'll be able to adjust on the fly against better opponents. Thx!!!
 
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SpeedBump621

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I would like to believe that lag would go quite much lower. I hope I’m tag and my range for shoving would be something like ATs, AJo+

CO is really very top of his range; much worse hand is more likely given 2x raise and then flat. KK to AA is possibility but quite rare.

Thanks for reinforcing that CO holding 99 is very close to the top of his possible range of hands. This will help my thought process at the tables.
 
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Gabe16

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Yes the BB was your basic drunken short stacked maniac type player (not being disrespectful at all...different people enjoy different things:)).



I just replied to a prior post about trying to understand how the gentlemen "did the math" in his head before making a statement.



I'm curious about how you arrived at +27BB. Did u just put V on a range, calculate HERO's EV and multiply the result by the size of the pot?



LOL! I know I may sound a bit "slow" but I want to make sure I have this part of the game down so as I move up I'll be able to adjust on the fly against better opponents. Thx!!!



Not slow at all. I'm only considering you vs V and not the blinds equity in the hand. So it'll be slightly less. Against

EV= Folds x current pot + calls x (hand equity x MW) - calls x (V's equity x ML)

Its good enough I think for these situations. Not sure what factors I used for the result yesterday. Only had 2 hours sleep.

https://youtu.be/ym1774AC5Ww

I only use this for of table work though, on the fly is just practice. Looking at ranges and how they rate against different starting hands as well as my ranges.

Good luck (not against me of course)
 
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I just put this in an equity calculator considering all your thoughts on the hand.
When we give V a range of 66-JJ, AA, ATs-AJs, AJo+, KQs and giving the BB a very maniac range of 33+,A2s+,KTs+,A4o+,KQo, these are the equities:
V: 35.18%
H: 39.74%
BB: 25.08%

Since you are holding a hand which is clearly ahead, your shove is more than fine. With AQs, you would be slightly behind of V
 
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braveslice

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@Roockie4life, I can’t agree with that analysis, imo obviously =)

BB’s range should be at least around 30%, this is 6max after all.

Also when CO raises 2x he is saying: ‘I know I should be raising, but my hand is too weak for it, maybe I just 2x it’ and ‘I don’t know much about poker’
Three large group of players 2x raising are: 1) Small pairs, villains are stepping up from limp game and replacing it with 2x raise 2)Any suited players 3) Trappers with strong holdings

Largest part of 2x raises are from any 2 suited players and they don’t usually fold. So V’s range includes also hands like 78s, 53s and so on. Now 53s can sometimes fold, but 78s never. Pairs 99 to JJ are hardly ever worth of min raise, because most 2x raisers value these hand, but they are not strong enough to go to category 3).

Stream of consciousness to understand him a bit:
So would any suiter V fold to BB shove with 53s? Ansswer is no, lol. Because BB is drunken donkey and not scary because he is AI and he probably doesn't even think about hero, if he does he mostly think hero just flats (V would flat, why would hero be different) or folds. After all hero is not strong, they all raise me all the time with air, hands like AJo and other bad stuff, just while ago guy raised me K9s he was super donkey. (And he is not that wrong, many reg tags and too agressive players 6max is full, would fold insane amount of hands here, maybe?!? attack 15% range and continue 2% range, so they would fold 87%)

87s has 41% vs AKo, the difference is too small to see in practice without math or study.

Also to evaluate shove, the fold equity is very important factor, not only raw equity.
 
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c9h13no3

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How does this post have 10 replies? It's a standard spot.
 
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