$10 NLHE 6-max: Should I bluff catch vs a nit?

IPlay

IPlay

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Not much of a read on villain because of how tight he was but his river bet just seems bluffy. I really don't think many nits go for 3 streets of value with 1010-QQ here but not sure if that is an assumption I should make almost read less. I think he has plenty of Adxd hands that have missed and my range is pretty capped by the river. Also his small flop sizing and big turn and big river sizings are pretty suspect because over pairs would generally bet larger on such a wet flop.

All in all I think villains line is pretty polarized to 77, 99, JJ+ or bluffs with Adxd hands.

Winning Poker Network (Yatahay) - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: $10.69 (VPIP: 11.90, PFR: 11.90, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 42)
MP: $14.60 (VPIP: 26.30, PFR: 17.78, 3Bet Preflop: 8.47, Hands: 276)
CO: $6.35 (VPIP: 26.11, PFR: 20.83, 3Bet Preflop: 3.42, Hands: 323)
BTN: $12.64 (VPIP: 25.06, PFR: 20.29, 3Bet Preflop: 10.99, Hands: 907)
SB: $11.00 (VPIP: 29.31, PFR: 24.14, 3Bet Preflop: 7.14, Hands: 58)
Hero (BB): $29.70

SB posts SB $0.05, Hero posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Hero has 5:heart: A:heart:

UTG raises to $0.30, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.65, 2 players) 5:diamond: 2:spade: 7:diamond:
Hero checks, UTG bets $0.30, Hero calls $0.30

Turn: ($1.25, 2 players) 3:club:
Hero checks, UTG bets $0.90, Hero calls $0.90

River: ($3.05, 2 players) 9:spade:
Hero checks, UTG bets $2.50, Hero ???
 
froggeedogs

froggeedogs

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I would fold here, putting him on 88 or 99 at least. what did you do?
 
IPlay

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I would fold here, putting him on 88 or 99 at least. what did you do?

Don't think 88 fires a 3rd barrel but I'll share the results later. Want some input from others first
 
Jillychemung

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Why isn't A5s in your 3-bet range in this spot if you choose to play it against a nit? Calling to flush mine is just burning money. Your hand beats nothing against a nits UTG opening range when the nit keeps firing away at it. And to him your hand looks exactly like a FD and he's not afraid if you happen to have any pair with it.
 
IPlay

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Because I have ~33% against the tightest of ranges (77+,ATs+,KQs,AQo+) and only need ~30% to call. It's also pretty easy to be that tight over 42 hands so it is probably wider than that. I'm definitely not flush mining, lol.
 
IPlay

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and yeah, my range does look weak and I have flush draws that have missed. All the more reason for him to barrel off all his bluffs. My range is pretty capped to a 7 at best here.
 
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braveslice

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Any player 3barreling is scary, from nit that is set of 9:s, 6d8d and KK+ like always :D He might not to be a nit like you said, but imo I would argue that one should think him as a one to maximise decisions, because it's most likely that he is one. So given he is nit, he will not 3barrel without hand, maybe if he is too drunk AdKd is there.
 
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braveslice

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What is you calling range vs nit UTG open? And how that is different than against TAG?

I folded just while ago AJs from SB vs UTG nit open :D
 
IPlay

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What is you calling range vs nit UTG open? And how that is different than against TAG?

I folded just while ago AJs from SB vs UTG nit open :D

Sounds pretty weak tight to me :p I would fold AJo myself but I think AJs is a pretty easy call, or raise.

From BB I'm calling vs tight UTG range with

TT-22,AJs-A2s,KJs-K9s,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,98s,87s,76s,AQo-ATo,KJo+,QJo,JTo

We only need 30% equity to call pre and all these hands have 33%+.

FWIW I folded river but I still feel like I could call here. Maybe I'll call with 87s, A7s, Ad9d, Kd9d, Qd9d, Jd9d, Td9d and 9d8d and fold my 5x.
 
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braveslice

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Yeah from SB I can see myself 3betting AJs vs nit, but I rather use AK, and call AQs. I don't really know what to do with AQo. The thing is that it might be more logical to 3bet hands that blocks hands villain will call instead of going AI:

From BB I will call AJs.

Do you really do profit from BB with low suited aces?
 
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IPlay

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I think we would be ok 3 betting AJo as a bluff, flatting AQo, AQs and AJs for value and with the option to raise.
 
Figaroo2

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Well for me to call the river you need to some sort of read that you might be good and I don't see it. Just calling here when we have very little information you are just guessing which can't be good.
All we have to work with is his vpip of 11.9 in 42 hands and his bet sizing and it is difficult for me to read much into this sort of sizing. He could bet those flop and turn sizings with both good and bad hands. Its hard to fire that 3rd barrel as a bluff when called twice, nitty players don't tend to bluff much in my experience they are usualy weaker players who usually give up with their air. I'd weight the river bet more towards value here. Yeah he might have air occasionally but we don't have that information.
I think it wise to err that he is tight and you are likely beaten by an overpair that vpip is from all positions and here he is UTG and this is 6 max, that is a tight vpip even for full ring.
So what line is better for you? I can't really see one tbh, you could raise the turn with your pair, gutshot and an overcard, you do have plenty of small pairs in your range here but it seems risky against this guy.
 
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