$10 NLHE 6-max: Ship/no ship the overpair

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ComplexPlaya

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41 hands on villain, he's 0/4 for raising the flop until now. 3-bet 0%, 0/14 so small sample.

This is more of a line check than anything, I believed i played it alright but now I'm wondering, want opinions. Wondering because he is a nit and they don't tend to bluff with crap most times, can I include JJ-QQ in his range or it's more realistic he would 3bet them.

What about straight draws (89 is unlikely but not impossible), FDs, TPTK, that is the biggest question I think, can I put them in his range, and really are there any flush draws that don't have the A spades in them seeing he plays 12%? In which case I'd be flipping and not happy to get it in since his range includes sets as well.

What do you do here, call and c/f turn or shove ?

Thinking some more, what do you think about a line of calling the flop raise then b/f any non-spade non-A turn?

SB: €12.23
BB: €16.51
Hero (UTG): €12.44
CO: €9.30
BTN: €14.50

SB posts SB €0.05, BB posts BB €0.10

Pre Flop: (€0.15) Hero has K:spade: K:club:

Hero raises to €0.35, CO calls €0.35, BTN calls €0.35, fold, BB calls €0.25

Flop: (€1.45, 4 players) T:spade: 2:club: 7:spade:
BB checks, Hero bets €1.20, CO raises to €2.80, BTN calls €2.80, fold, Hero raises to €12.09 and is all-in, CO calls €6.15 and is all-in, fold

Turn: (€22.15, 2 players) 5:spade:

River: (€22.15, 2 players) J:diamond:
 
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vasysm

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and what did he have? it smells like set from the postflop action.

on this board I would have called and check-raised the flush draw on turn, forcing him to take a stand and define his hand properly.
 
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ComplexPlaya

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vasym : It doesn't matter what he had, we are analyzing a hand. Betting for information is losing money.

Update : Started to analyze the hand on my own, I gave him a starting range of 13% being TT-22,A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,ATo+,KJo+ (assuming JJ+ 3-bet) and a raising flop range of TT,77,22,AsKs,AsQs,AsJs,KsQs,KsJs,QsJs,AsTc,AsTd,AsTh

Do you find that raising range realistic? All of it will call a shove imo thinking he's flipping with FD+overs and has the pot odds. Pokerstove says


equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 21.152% 20.93% 00.22% 8603027 89563.50 { TT, 77, 22, AsKs, AsQs, AsJs, KsQs, KsJs, QsJs, AsTc, AsTd, AsTh }
Hand 1: 78.848% 78.63% 00.22% 32313142 89563.50 { KhKs }

So, played it right? Any mistake in analyzing the hand ?
 
WVHillbilly

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I'd pull out a few of those hands. Just because he plays ATo/KJs/KQs/QJs doesn't mean he calls UTG opens with them.

So against a range of TT, 77, 22, AsKs, AsQs, AsJs, ATs you're actually in pretty rough shape with 33% equity. Add JJ to his range (and I certainly think it could be there) and it's 50/50.

It's a pretty marginal shove, but I doubt it's a huge mistake.
 
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ComplexPlaya

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I'd pull out a few of those hands. Just because he plays ATo/KJs/KQs/QJs doesn't mean he calls UTG opens with them.

So against a range of TT, 77, 22, AsKs, AsQs, AsJs, ATs you're actually in pretty rough shape with 33% equity. Add JJ to his range (and I certainly think it could be there) and it's 50/50.

It's a pretty marginal shove, but I doubt it's a huge mistake.

Thanks for settling my mind a bit.

Ugh, me being stupid forgot to put the board on pokerstove lol. So by the range I gave I'm 34%, I need 43% to make it work given pot odds. If JJ is there I'm good like you said. Even more so if QQ is there.

It might be a gray area but I doubt he's going to fold QJs and KQs b/c I'm UTG.

Does he always raise his AsTx hands though along with sets and big draws, or is that being overly optimistic from my part? Does he always raise his big draws with overpairs, his AsJs type hands, or does he do it a significant % of the time? I think it would be the case with his aggression.

Anyway, you are right about JJ, even if his range is just sets and JJ I get the odds I need to make the shove profitable. I guess it can't be known without history of what he 3bets/calls with. One more thing going for me is the third guy 42/11/2 that might call as well with some draw and cancel some of villain's outs.

Any merit at all to calling ? Folding does have merit I guess as well.
 
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Pascal-lf

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I'd pull out a few of those hands. Just because he plays ATo/KJs/KQs/QJs doesn't mean he calls UTG opens with them.

So against a range of TT, 77, 22, AsKs, AsQs, AsJs, ATs you're actually in pretty rough shape with 33% equity. Add JJ to his range (and I certainly think it could be there) and it's 50/50.

I include the suited broadways in this guy's range unless he was ridiculously tight - just how tight was he?
 
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ComplexPlaya

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I include the suited broadways in this guy's range unless he was ridiculously tight - just how tight was he?

I guess I forgot to put the stats in, I don't remember them now tbh. As a default tho I'm never thinking someone is folding any broadway, especially not connectors like QJs, JTs nit or not.

My question to you though : Do you think normally a nit/reg with decent/high AF will raise FD+overcards here?
 
REI53

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Thank you for your valuable input.

What u want me to say, u have an overpair and flop comes rainbow...the action pf is standard i guess...so even if u are facing fd (likely) or set (not so likely but still...) u can't ever fold that hand in this flop...IMO

I like when people post standards hands, when u can't have another line, just because they've lost them...gg
 
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ComplexPlaya

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What u want me to say, u have an overpair and flop comes rainbow...the action pf is standard i guess...so even if u are facing fd (likely) or set (not so likely but still...) u can't ever fold that hand in this flop...IMO

I like when people post standards hands, when u can't have another line, just because they've lost them...gg

What was that proverb... "Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt" (ty google)

No offense, saying this is standard and not to be played in any other way is just....if there's any standard here it is to fold, try it and save yourself some monnies. Thank me later.
 
REI53

REI53

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What was that proverb... "Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt" (ty google)

No offense, saying this is standard and not to be played in any other way is just....if there's any standard here it is to fold, try it and save yourself some monnies. Thank me later.

Ok bud...everyone plays their way..."well see who's around in 5 years" Hellmuth quote :)
 
ChuckTs

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[ ] flop was rainbow
[ ] standard spot
[x] quoted Hellmuth :eek:
[x] quit posting useless one-liner posts. Nobody gains from them and you spam up the forum.

People post in HA to get constructive feedback. Your constant 'call flop, raise turn'/'standard spot'/'duh this hand is easy' posts aren't adding anything to the forum. If you want to fit in, maybe give some reasoning behind your opinion, and drop your ego.
 
bgomez89

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thank God im not the only one who thought that
 
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ComplexPlaya

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[ ] flop was rainbow
[ ] standard spot
[x] quoted Hellmuth :eek:
[x] quit posting useless one-liner posts. Nobody gains from them and you spam up the forum.

People post in HA to get constructive feedback. Your constant 'call flop, raise turn'/'standard spot'/'duh this hand is easy' posts aren't adding anything to the forum. If you want to fit in, maybe give some reasoning behind your opinion, and drop your ego.

thank God im not the only one who thought that

+1 gazillion helmuth lice. I'm going to say things straight up like Chuck next time! hah :)
 
Melkor

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I guess I forgot to put the stats in, I don't remember them now tbh. As a default tho I'm never thinking someone is folding any broadway, especially not connectors like QJs, JTs nit or not.

My question to you though : Do you think normally a nit/reg with decent/high AF will raise FD+overcards here?

I would say absolutely yes, especially if hero is LAG and c-bets a lot.

We have to remember we have the K of spades in our hand. That takes out some combos of flush draws. I reckon villain is definitely calling preflop with QsJs, AsJs, AsQs, ATs and unsuited as well as JJ, TT, 77, 22 and villain is raising all of them on the flop and calling a shove as well (I don't think villain finds a fold with AT or JJ because of the flush draw potential and money invested in the pot). We are 51% against this range and that potentially dead money from the BTN further tips things in our balance. BTN could show up with a set but with their stats we have to take our chances.

Edit: In fact, I think I forgot to add JJ and we are actually 59%
 
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