Originally Posted by TimovieMan
Ugh. MP+1. You know who I meant.
I would of but you also cited MP's 5% PFR as a reason for flatting since he has a tight range.
Initial raiser has a pfr of 19.3% so he is probably raising ~25% from MP+1 when folded too(He raises too much). Especially with nothing but nits and a single fish left to act in front.
When we squeeze here there is plenty of his range to fold. Here is his raising range. What part of this range will call the squeeze? Well lets say he calls wide, even though he should fold a little tighter since the he has to worry about the button and probably won't have position if he flats. Let's keep it wide though.
What?? He folds ~60% of his range?? That is some nice fold equity. but wait, the button also called. Well $#%* him. He is a nitty tag that would of 3 bet a hand that he is going to call your 3 bet with, we have so much fold equity with him that I shouldn't have to go any further.
So we already established MP +1 will fold ~60% of his range to a squeeze so what is the perfect bet sizing here? $1.65, we want to go pretty large here since we are OOP and slightly deeper.
So we are betting $1.60 to win $0.75 and to do this profitably we need folds ~47% of the time and by our earlier calculations we have that! Even better is that if he does call we can still hit a set ~12% of the time on the flop and we are a coin flip against his continuing range. We also create a lower SPR which makes it easier to get stacks in when we hit. We can also make better hands fold on some flops. We kind of have the world of EV open up to us when we squeeze.
Now you tell me why flatting with a low pocket pair against a wide range OOP is the better play. How often are we stacking a wide range OOP? How often are we putting in 3bbs just to x/fold the flop? A TON!! If you always flat here with small pocket pairs to set mine you probably have a leak. Pardon any slight mistakes I may have had, it's 3 am after a 14 hour session of zone.