Originally Posted by flatcaller
Flecthdad believes the player he is up against is taking a stab at the pot. Therefore calling in this spot with a set can induce a player to continue bluff the river because it is the only play he has in order to win pot. So flatting turn allows for opponent to continue bluff the river. If he checks river, Fletch then has option to value bet. A raise on the turn works if you are putting your opponent on a hand or draw but if you think he is stabbing at a pot a set is def good so you need to pretend you are on draw to induce bet on river. Flatting turn allows max value of hand rather than bet, raise, fold.
No he doesn't. To value bet 2 things must be true,
1) We have to have the best hand (almost always true)
2) We have to think our opponent will call with worse (almost never true if he checks the river)
I mean don't get me wrong if you take that line you have to bet the river but you're almost never getting called.
Also the last line of your post assumes our opponent will fold to the raise when their are clearly several hands in his range that he could flat a turn raise with (Qx,SDs,FDs) and even a few that he'll shove over with since our turn raise reps such a narrow value range.