$10 NLHE 6-max: rivered a boat, how to size Vbet?

JCgrind

JCgrind

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Jun 28, 2012
Total posts
2,490
Chips
0
110 hands on villain, hes running at 29/22, with a 3b of 16.7% and an AggF of 4. Squeeze is 33% (9 samples) and 3b out of BB is 29%

poker stars $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 1870768
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

Hero (BTN): $13.52
SB: $11.76
BB: $11.36
UTG: $18.05
MP: $11.24
CO: $10.00

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is BTN with 8
club.gif
8
heart.gif

1 fold, MP raises to $0.30, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.30, 1 fold, BB raises to $1.20, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.90

Flop: ($2.75) J
spade.gif
2
club.gif
7
heart.gif
(2 players)
BB bets $1.40, Hero calls $1.40

Turn: ($5.55) 2
spade.gif
(2 players)
BB bets $2.80, Hero calls $2.80

River: ($11.15) 8
diamond.gif
(2 players)
BB checks, Hero????

Plan for this hand was to call down pretty much any board due to his ridiculous 3b stat and aggro and just let him spazz out. if i didnt fill up OTR i wouldve checked it back.
When he checks the river i guess he has a lot of air, a few Jx, 99-TT. id assume hes shoving overpairs but its not uncommon for micro players to c/c rivers with them- with this in mind i want to shove, but such a small % of his range his is overpairs, so do we think hes snapping off Jx to a ship too? or should i bet something like $3 here to try and induce a call from weird TP/midpair type hands?

ESS for the river is $5.96
 
B

baudib1

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Dec 2, 2008
Total posts
6,635
Chips
0
Shove of course. I think I like shoving pre but I'm not brave enough to call down "any board" with 88.
 
JCgrind

JCgrind

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Jun 28, 2012
Total posts
2,490
Chips
0
shove pre or raise any point and he folds tho, im much more willing to watch him spazz out and showdown 88 vs air 90% of the time and 88 vs something that actually beats me the other 10%

so general concesus is theres no merit to leaving him a dollar or so behind? (you know, so hes more willing to call when its not his entire roll lol) also thinking if i bet something dumb like $1 im likely to getting some wtfshove over the top/K high herocall?
 
B

baudib1

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Dec 2, 2008
Total posts
6,635
Chips
0
He's not calling with Queen-high no matter how much you bet. I think you need a specific read that he could shove over a bet that's begging for a call. He'd have to pretty much snap any J and arguably worse. If he's 3-betting a merged range he probably has a ton of AJ/KJ/QJ/JT/J9 type hands.
 
JCgrind

JCgrind

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Jun 28, 2012
Total posts
2,490
Chips
0
If he's 3-betting a merged range he probably has a ton of AJ/KJ/QJ/JT/J9 type hands.

tbh id say it has to be merged, which is why im thinking something small (even though it screams vbet) instead of just gii
 
Deco

Deco

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
May 7, 2009
Total posts
2,544
Chips
0
I'd prefer a 4bet to the call down (probably just fold myself). You've too little information on his barreling tendencies to stack any board. Heck the samples a bit small to even conclude his 3bet% is huge, it's defo going to be light but that 16% is far from converged. My 3bet% has been 33% before after 100 hands (it's actually 7).

Your saying you don't want him folding as if 88 crushes his range, it doesn't. Even if his range is 16% your a dog to his range.

Hand 0: 50.455% { 66+, A7s+, A5s, K9s+, Q9s+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QJo }
Hand 1: 49.545% { 88 }

Granted it will be polarized but heck it's unlikely to be 16% and polarizing won't change us from a dog to crushing.
 
JCgrind

JCgrind

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Jun 28, 2012
Total posts
2,490
Chips
0
I'd prefer a 4bet to the call down (probably just fold myself). You've too little information on his barreling tendencies to stack any board. Heck the samples a bit small to even conclude his 3bet% is huge, it's defo going to be light but that 16% is far from converged. My 3bet% has been 33% before after 100 hands (it's actually 7).

Your saying you don't want him folding as if 88 crushes his range, it doesn't. Even if his range is 16% your a dog to his range.

Hand 0: 50.455% { 66+, A7s+, A5s, K9s+, Q9s+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QJo }
Hand 1: 49.545% { 88 }

Granted it will be polarized but heck it's unlikely to be 16% and polarizing won't change us from a dog to crushing.

I meant on the flop though.... Surely I have him smoked? (not in comp so can't run a stove)
 
Deco

Deco

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
May 7, 2009
Total posts
2,544
Chips
0
shove pre or raise any point and he folds tho, im much more willing to watch him spazz out and showdown 88 vs air 90% of the time

For pre I was responding to this as I believe calling is a mistake.

Postflop you have absolutly no reads saying he''ll triple barrel his entire range on any board. His AF being 4 after 100 hands means absolutly nothing, filter your hands in HM to see what sort of AFs you will have over 100 hands. It varies from as much as 0 to 9. I think AF is the most overrated overused stats as it takes so long to converge and by the time it has there are better stats out there for any given scenario.

I'm fine with the flop and turn calls in this particular scenario, its the overall plan I hate.
 
Top