$10 NLHE 6-max: River decision: call or fold ?

R

razzor94

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Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 31/22/0.9

$0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $11.14 (111.4 bb)
BB: $17.86 (178.6 bb)
UTG: $10 (100 bb)
MP: $7.37 (73.7 bb)
Hero (CO): $11.03 (110.3 bb)
BTN: $14.38 (143.8 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A
spade4.gif
Q
spade4.gif

2 folds, Hero raises to $0.25, BTN raises to $0.80, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.55

Flop: ($1.75) 8
spade4.gif
2
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5
spade4.gif
(2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $0.90, Hero calls $0.90

Turn: ($3.55) A
club4.gif
(2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

River: ($3.55) 5
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(2 players)
Hero bets $1.66, BTN raises to $4.99, Hero ?

Its a snap or zoom table whatever you wanna call it, so there is not much dynamics going on. I only have 61 hands on him. His 3bet is 25% from 28 hands that he has faced a raise. So I'd say pretty aggressive from a small sample.
On the river he is really only repping 65s, 54s and maybe 75s.
What do i do ?
 
Andrew Popov

Andrew Popov

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call
But you should also bet on the turn when you got an ace.
 
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kozong

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it could be AK, but it could be Ax w/ lower kicker & JJ+

when im not sure & OOP id check the river too, we might call cheaper there

as played, calling doesnt seem so bad
 
Andrew Popov

Andrew Popov

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Of course, it would be interesting to know the statistics on this villain. How much he is inclined to bluff and half-bluff?
 
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razzor94

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call
But you should also bet on the turn when you got an ace.

You cant just say call/fold/raise and not explain your reasons. What is the point of this post then ?
Also you are saying i should lead out turn, for what reason ?
If he is on some sort of bluff what does my donk bet accomplish ?
What worse hands will call my donk bet ? Maybe AT, AJ but what do i do on the river when they call, bet again ? They will probably fold the riv when i bet so i am getting 1 bet out of them anyways when they check turn. And if i bet turn and i get raised what do i do then ? I will probably have to fold and trow away all my equity in this spot because i wont be getting good enough price.
And you are saying you need more info on the player when i have given pretty much all relevant info i could have on a 61 hand sample.
 
IPlay

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I call because wtf does he have and play this way? Highly doubtful he has 5x, AK would probably bet the turn. Also if we are folding here then what are we calling with? 88 only? I call and expect to see some bluffs vs our weak looking range or maybe even a chop against AQ and sometimes losing to AK.
 
Andrew Popov

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You cant just say call/fold/raise and not explain your reasons. What is the point of this post then ?
Also you are saying i should lead out turn, for what reason ?
If he is on some sort of bluff what does my donk bet accomplish ?
What worse hands will call my donk bet ? Maybe AT, AJ but what do i do on the river when they call, bet again ? They will probably fold the riv when i bet so i am getting 1 bet out of them anyways when they check turn. And if i bet turn and i get raised what do i do then ? I will probably have to fold and trow away all my equity in this spot because i wont be getting good enough price.
And you are saying you need more info on the player when i have given pretty much all relevant info i could have on a 61 hand sample.

There are very few hands that beat you, and most of them are unlikely to play pre-flop raise. But a lot of hands that will be behind.
 
bmw13

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What he had ?? you make me curious...
 
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AlexTheOwl

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Also you are saying i should lead out turn, for what reason ?
If he is on some sort of bluff what does my donk bet accomplish ?
What worse hands will call my donk bet ? Maybe AT, AJ but what do i do on the river when they call, bet again ? They will probably fold the riv when i bet so i am getting 1 bet out of them anyways when they check turn. And if i bet turn and i get raised what do i do then ? I will probably have to fold and trow away all my equity in this spot because i wont be getting good enough price.

I bet the turn also, agree with Andrew.

Flop bet by villain looks like a c-bet. If he c-bets frequently then it tells us nothing about his hand (what is his c-bet stat?)

On the turn you have top pair with a good kicker, and a draw to the nut flush. This is the kind of hand a person hopes for when they decide to play AQs.
You want to get value for your hand on at least one street, and maybe two if the river card is favorable or if the villain is a calling station (what is his VPIP? WTSD?).

Your objections are basically:
- Villain may fold
- Villain may have you beat
- Villain may bluff you

All of this is true, poker involves risk. All three of these things are almost always true on the turn in hands where we are likely to be ahead. Would you argue that we should never bet these hands for value?

The only time I wouldn't bet the turn here was if I thought there was a better chance to get more chips in the pot on this street by checking. I'd have to know the villain well enough to think that he'll probably fold if I bet, but there is a good chance he will bet if I check.

I'd call the river also, agree with IPlay.
 
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razzor94

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I bet the turn also, agree with Andrew.

Flop bet by villain looks like a c-bet. If he c-bets frequently then it tells us nothing about his hand (what is his c-bet stat?)

On the turn you have top pair with a good kicker, and a draw to the nut flush. This is the kind of hand a person hopes for when they decide to play AQs.
You want to get value for your hand on at least one street, and maybe two if the river card is favorable or if the villain is a calling station (what is his VPIP? WTSD?).

Your objections are basically:
- Villain may fold
- Villain may have you beat
- Villain may bluff you

All of this is true, poker involves risk. All three of these things are almost always true on the turn in hands where we are likely to be ahead. Would you argue that we should never bet these hands for value?

The only time I wouldn't bet the turn here was if I thought there was a better chance to get more chips in the pot on this street by checking. I'd have to know the villain well enough to think that he'll probably fold if I bet, but there is a good chance he will bet if I check.

I'd call the river also, agree with IPlay.

1. VPIP/PFR/AG are all stated in the first post, below the title. Cbet is 60%, but that is a stat that u cant rely on too much cause its a cbet stat in a single raised pot. You should look for cbet in a 3bet pot, and we dont have enough info for that stat to be reliable. WTSD is 25% (3 times out of 12)
2. I would probably never bet the turn here. Yes i do have TP good kicker and a nut FD, but you also have to think what does my opponent have, how will he respond and how is his range shaping given his actions.
Surely i might be ahead at the time but is that really a reason for me to bet out here ? I think if bet the turn when i am ahead i am winning the exact same as if i check turn and loosing much more when i am behind.
I went for the x/c turn line for the same reason i did it on the flop. Cause i thought i was ahead. If i had a weaker FD i would probably x/r the flop and try to realize my fold equity.
Then again maybe i am mistaken. It is interesting to think of different lines in different situations but u just dont see this being a +EV play.


I did fold on the river but analyzing it i saw it was a very bad fold.
If i did put him on a 5x adding just 76s as a bluff boosts my equity to 40% and i only needed 25%.
I guess the fact that i was leaking money with loose river calls had to do with me making this kind of fold.
So yes i do agree with iPlay in this situation.
 
bmw13

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how could you fold that ...with top pair and good kiker? to someone how is c-betting half from his hands and cheaks the turn.... its was a really bad play even he were for example better than you ... but i think 75% you were better. There was a big reason to call that hand.
 
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Just my opinion

I would have made a check-raise on the flop (you got a good shoot with flus and you have known if he is just c-betting you), if he call your check-raise that means that he has top pair or maybe 6-7 suite, if he re-raise your check-raise you could think he has a stronger pair (T's, JJ, also 9's). In this point if he re-raise you putting you in all-in obviously you have to fold te hand, but if he doesn't put you in all-in you could just call.
When the turn arrived you should bet cause now you got top pair with a nut flush, now he got two options, go all-in or fold, cause if he had 6-7 suite or pair like T's or JJ for shure he is going to fold cause he's putting you on AK or AQ of spades but if he goes all-in after your bet of course you have to think that he has AK or KK's or maybe AA and he doesn't want that you pay to get your tirth spade on the river (I would call either way).
Now, he just called the turn and the river arrived, the flush is not complete and you only have top peir with a very good kiker, you have to check and wait his chek (he just is goint to check if he has AK or KK's) but if he bet I think I call cause now I'm not putting him in a set the only hand that could win us is the AK.
That's just my opinion and the way I played.
 
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AlexTheOwl

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1. VPIP/PFR/AG are all stated in the first post, below the title. Cbet is 60%, but that is a stat that u cant rely on too much cause its a cbet stat in a single raised pot. You should look for cbet in a 3bet pot, and we dont have enough info for that stat to be reliable. WTSD is 25% (3 times out of 12)

I don't know how I missed those stats in the first post, sorry for the stupid question.

Villain doesn't seem like a calling station, so out of position I'd be looking for value on one street unless my hand improves, or maybe a 1/3 pot thin value bet on the river.

I think the best argument for betting the turn is that 15 cards improve your hand on the river (spades, aces, queens), so by the "rule of two" you have a ~30% chance of your hand improving. If it does improve, you'll wish you had bet the turn, because you'll have a good chance at winning a big pot at the river.

With just top pair, there is also some minor advantage to getting your opponent to fold on the turn, instead of on the river. His hand could always improve on the river, or he could put you to a difficult decision with a bluff.
To be clear, I'd want him to call a turn bet, because I think hero has the best hand. But if he folds, it's not all bad.
 
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