€10 NLHE 6-max: Really weird line from villain, make a move on the river?

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ComplexPlaya

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Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 41/21/2

I was calling because his pot-sized insta-bets looked very strong and figured the implied odds where there

Then he shocks me checking a blank river, never expected that. Nothink but QT completed on the river, so what is he doing? His range now looks much more like a missed FD to me than any kind of strong hand.

Should I make a move and shove this ?

SB: €9.13
BB: €10.00
UTG: €17.34
Hero (MP): €11.65
CO: €2.00
BTN: €13.15

SB posts SB €0.05, BB posts BB €0.10, CO posts DB €0.10

Pre Flop: (€0.25) Hero has 5:heart: 4:heart:

UTG raises to €0.45, Hero calls €0.45, fold, fold, fold, fold

Flop: (€1.15, 2 players) J:club: 6:club: 3:heart:
UTG bets €1.00, Hero calls €1.00

Turn: (€3.15, 2 players) K:spade:
UTG bets €3.15, Hero calls €3.15

River: (€9.45, 2 players) 9:heart:
UTG checks, Hero ????
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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On the turn we're getting 2:1 ((3.15+3.15)/3.15) immediate, 4.2:1 ((7.05+3.15+3.15)/3.15) implied. So first off we're making like a break-even call here assuming our outs are clean, and second we aren't guaranteed those implied odds should we hit. Pretty easy fold on the turn for me.

As played, I'm a pretty firm believer that we should stick with our earlier read and not level ourselves into changing our mind. We decided earlier that we could draw because his range was so strong that we'd get paid off like every time, now we want to bluff him. Just doesn't add up. I think I see more than enough Jx/Kx/random slowplays/spazzy look-ups to make betting here bad. He may not do it always, but he definitely bluff-catches vs the missed flush draws kind of often.
 
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ComplexPlaya

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ChuckTs said:
On the turn we're getting 2:1 ((3.15+3.15)/3.15) immediate, 4.2:1 ((7.05+3.15+3.15)/3.15) implied. So first off we're making like a break-even call here assuming our outs are clean, and second we aren't guaranteed those implied odds should we hit. Pretty easy fold on the turn for me.

As played, I'm a pretty firm believer that we should stick with our earlier read and not level ourselves into changing our mind. We decided earlier that we could draw because his range was so strong that we'd get paid off like every time, now we want to bluff him. Just doesn't add up. I think I see more than enough Jx/Kx/random slowplays/spazzy look-ups to make betting here bad. He may not do it always, but he definitely bluff-catches vs the missed flush draws kind of often.
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Yeah you're right I realized posting the hand my implied odds were less than I thought, probably miscalculated a bit while playing.

But for future reference, can I assume a pot sized from a non-maniac is good strength and almost never TPWK / midpair stuff ? Don't really see the marginal hands betting the pot I don't think.

Pretty spewy play from me perhaps, went with gut feeling etc. it worked out this time (he folded to my shove) but I shan't make a habit of it...
 
icemonkey9

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Not sure how 10nl plays, but against this guy I don't mind floating the flop. Against a nit, I'm actually raising this flop because we can bluff the turn with sooooo many cards. If you think you can bluff with a river shove, then shove, but I think just playing straight up and nothing fancy is the right way to play 10nl so I am not sure the turn play was wise here and it was more of a time to give up with 8 perceived outs despite what you might think your implied odds were.
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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ComplexPlaya said:
But for future reference, can I assume a pot sized from a non-maniac is good strength and almost never TPWK / midpair stuff ? Don't really see the marginal hands betting the pot I don't think.
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It's usually pretty significant strength. I find pot-sized donks are strength, anything less is usually weakness (in which case I'd be happy raising the flop here).

Depends on your opponent of course - I always note what people show down when they donk or raise the flop because it makes spots like these much easier to play.
 
rssurfer54

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fold pre? I know thats avoiding the more interesting things later, but in utg+1 we arent guaranteed to be playing in position, we
 
WVHillbilly

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rssurfer54 said:
fold pre? I know thats avoiding the more interesting things later, but in utg+1 we arent guaranteed to be playing in position, we
Click to expand...

I agree especially since CO has a $2 stack he's undoubtedly looking to shove with the slightest bit of a hand. Unless the blinds are just massive fish I don't like calling here at all.

As played, I fold the turn.
 
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