$10 NLHE 6-max: QQ Facing cold 4-bet.

$10 NL HE 6-max: QQ Facing cold 4-bet.

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 19/16/3.6

Don't have a ton of hands on villain here, though he seems to be pretty competent over the ~100 hands I played with him. Though I do find it really tough to credit him with the ability to cold 4-bet bluff ever. I was playing fairly laggy at this table like 26/22. UTG Raiser is kind of a nit, like 15/11 over 500+ hands. I guess I just need to know if AK is in his range often enough here to make this shove profitable.

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HAND #1
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party poker, $0.05/$0.10 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

Hero (MP): $10.30 (103 bb)
CO: $11.05 (110.5 bb)
BTN: $10.60 (106 bb)
SB: $10.05 (100.5 bb)
BB: $11.40 (114 bb)
UTG: $10.70 (107 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is MP with Q Q
UTG raises to $0.40, Hero raises to $1.30, 2 folds, SB raises to $2.90, 2 folds, Hero ???

Well I definitely think this is not a bluff ever EVER. AK is definitely in his range and in my opinion his most likely holding. The problem is that we apparently don't know any of his 4bet stats, right?

Anyways, if we say his range is AK-AA-KK-QQ-JJ (could he do this with JJ??) then you're facing a flip (equity wise) with doubtful fold equity. Let's take JJ and QQ out of the equation and suddenly your equity is a 40-60% dog.

I fold here. It is almost certainly -EV without reads that he 4 bets light.

I think this is going to be AA, KK mostly. Like Ice said I dont think this is a bluff hardly ever, unless he misclicked or you have been trying to run him over. Especially with the way the action went before him.

Also with his bet size it looks as if he wants action. He's probably used to the 10nl players flatting his 4bets with atc, so I think he might make a larger 4bet with ak to avoid the awkwardness.

icemonkey9 said:

Well I definitely think this is not a bluff ever EVER. AK is definitely in his range and in my opinion his most likely holding. The problem is that we apparently don't know any of his 4bet stats, right?

Anyways, if we say his range is AK-AA-KK-QQ-JJ (could he do this with JJ??) then you're facing a flip (equity wise) with doubtful fold equity. Let's take JJ and QQ out of the equation and suddenly your equity is a 40-60% dog.

Click to expand...

Yeah, only 100 or so hands, so no usable 4-bet stats.

If we assume 0% FE (highly likely, imo)

EV vs. KK+ = -$5.01

EV vs. KK+,AK = -$0.50

EV vs. JJ+,AK = +$0.94


Not as good as I thought originally. I thought it was a lot better when AK was in his range. Clear fold?

Assuming those calcs are correct it looks like it's thin at best and is pretty much a high variance flip. So yeah, fold.

And i wouldn't even be thinking that AK is necessarily in the range of a nl10 player with stats like that and if it is i highly doubt that he would be doing it 100% w/ AK whereas it would be 100% w/KK+. I don't think you should ever give nl10 villains for having awareness of image, etc. so i think this is probably almost always a huge hand.