$10 NLHE 6-max: QQ 4bet pot Ace on the board

bgomez89

bgomez89

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$10 NL HE 6-max: QQ 4bet pot Ace on the board

poker stars $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 547796
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

captainejo (CO): $13.05
Mayotruck (BTN): $1.45
dcsscd (SB): $11.45
jomty (BB): $41.65
Hero (UTG): $14.05
shaka01 (MP): $10.35

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is UTG with Q
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Q
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Hero raises to $0.40, 1 fold, captainejo raises to $1.25, 3 folds, Hero raises to $4, captainejo calls $2.75

Flop: ($8.15) A
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T
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3
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(2 players)
Hero ???

villian was a 41/10 3bet:7%
 
M

Marginal

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Against a 41/10 I probably just 4 bet shove preflop. You can't bet here because he never folds an ace and by checking you allow him to bluff.
 
bgomez89

bgomez89

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im not too deep to 4bet shove QQ?
 
bgomez89

bgomez89

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it makes me sad when I hear things like that
 
U

Ubercroz

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41/10 calls with any garbage but his 3bet rangesos probably a lot tighter than that. After all his pfr is 10. I think you are too deep to shove QQ preflop even though in this spot you were ahead of him. A big part of his 3bet range contains A's. It's a shitty spot because he flatted you but if he's not aggressive he may check behind if he does not have an A.
Don't bet here with a hand you will fold to a raise. committing more money is a mistake and if he bets it could be stupid small like .10.
 
bgomez89

bgomez89

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Should make us happy... :D

makes me sad that I didn't do it and had to lay down my queens on the flop :(

41/10 calls with any garbage but his 3bet rangesos probably a lot tighter than that. After all his pfr is 10. I think you are too deep to shove QQ preflop even though in this spot you were ahead of him. A big part of his 3bet range contains A's. It's a shitty spot because he flatted you but if he's not aggressive he may check behind if he does not have an A.
Don't bet here with a hand you will fold to a raise. committing more money is a mistake and if he bets it could be stupid small like .10.
That was pretty much my thoughts exactly
 
M

Marginal

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He is 3 betting 7%, he is not passive.
 
U

Ubercroz

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He is 3 betting 7%, he is not passive.

But his agg factor is a 1. Though I didn't really look at his 3bet range so yeah QQ is pretty far ahead of that. I guess stacks in preflop would be a reasonable choice given the 3bet range.
 
M

Mamushi

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Just did a simulator of QQ against 7% and then did it again on the flop.


QQ against the top 7% is 61.1 to 38.8
On the flop QQ is 36.2 to 63.7

Strictly speaking that means you should have shoved instead of 4-bet. Normally, I believe, 4-bets are reserved to counter light 3-betting which you probably are not getting enough of at these limits.

His range has alot of aces in it, so this board sucks for us, but it is a 4-bet pot and we still have 36.2% equity...

i forgot to mention that sample size is a big deal with 3-bets%, and if you don't have several hundred hands on him it might not be accurate.
 
bgomez89

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yes it wasnt too accurate. I only had about 50 or so
 
M

Mamushi

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One last little thing concerning the 4-bet size. Generally when 1/3rd of your stack goes in pre, you are pretty much committing your entire stack which is why you make your 4-bet bluffs/4-bets just under 30% of effective stacks.

With effective stacks of $13.00 that means 3.90 would have committed him almost regardless of what comes on the flop. As it stands that makes me wonder whether you can even let this go. If someone out there can do an SPR analysis I think even having middle pair here and 33ish% equity means we can stack here correctly regardless of the results.
 
thepokerkid123

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I actually like shoving the flop as a bluff. It would take a very strange range range to be ahead of you more than half of the time here (and you need him to fold 50% of the time to break even on the shove).

I don't think we can play QQ for value against a player like this, I don't mind it against a reg who you can make some sense of (even if that just means he has a well balanced range) but you'd need a very solid read to play this for value and I don't think that's likely here.

I mean, if you bet does he call with worse or give you credit for the A? In my opinion A's are the one card in a deck that fish will fold a mid pocket pair to. I'm just not comfortable betting this for value. We could of course check/call a shove, but for that you need to be confident that he bets/shoves with less than the A and I think we can very rarely be confident that he's going to put chips in often enough with weak enough hands to justify a call. If we check we only need to be ahead 1 time in 3 which against a someone with a balanced range is a super easy call, against a nit it's a fold, against a fish... I just can't see him thinking this hand through well enough to shove with less often enough, we're relying entirely on him spazzing out which I don't think even fish do >33% of the time. I think you're winning a small pot when you're ahead and losing a big one when you're behind, if you bet.

But I think a bluff shove is +EV on fold equity alone, plus we can still rely on him to make occasional calls with stuff we actually beat.


Shove.
 
thepokerkid123

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Just because I just realised my previous post is advocating bluffing out hands that we beat which doesn't make a whole lot of sense (normally).

I can't see any way of playing this for value that's going to be +EV and shoving is absolutely +EV.... make sense? Probably not.

Just shove anyway and you'll make more money than if you fold.
 
B

baudib1

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This is a very basic WA/WB situation. C/C a reasonable flop bet on such a wet board is OK, I think we give up on the turn if he fires again.
 
thepokerkid123

thepokerkid123

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This is a very basic WA/WB situation. C/C a reasonable flop bet on such a wet board is OK, I think we give up on the turn if he fires again.

How big a flop bet are you willing to call here and still fold on the turn?
 
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