$10 NLHE 6-max: QJ vs river shove

igySK

igySK

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Can I call on the river? Does he ever shove with anything else than AJ?

IPoker Network $10.00 No Limit Hold'em - 4 players - View hand 2243883
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

BB: $15.99 - VPIP: 56, PFR: 38, 3B: 22, AF: 0.8, Hands: 16
CO: $6.00 - VPIP: 14, PFR: 10, 3B: 0, AF: 2.0, hands: 79
BTN: $6.41 - VPIP: 28, PFR: 11, 3B: 0, AF: 0.0, Hands: 18
Hero (SB): $10.15 - VPIP: 21, PFR: 17, 3B: 5, AF: 4.8, Hands: 7102

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is SB with J
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Q
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1 fold, BTN raises to $0.30, Hero calls $0.25, BB raises to $0.70, BTN calls $0.40, Hero calls $0.40

Flop: ($2.10) K
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Q
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3
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(3 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, BTN checks

Turn: ($2.10) 9
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(3 players)
Hero bets $1.10, BB calls $1.10, BTN folds

River: ($4.30) T
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(2 players)
Hero bets $3.00, BB raises to $14.19, Hero folds
 
J

jsh169

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I would assume most the time your chopping here, if your going to fold to a raise here your probably better off check calling in this spot.
 
igySK

igySK

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yeah I should've b/called, AJ isn't a huge part of his range, I've already talked about this ;)
 
forsakenone

forsakenone

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vs that player I would have called.
 
A

AvaloNNN

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VPIP 56% !
This is a split pot probably, but against this kind of player
you never know, this could even be a bluff, or even AJ.
I would probably call this.
 
A

AvaloNNN

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So what? It is a decent sample size. You will not find much deviation in VPIP as the numbers go up.
Just look at the button guy. You have only 18 hands on him, but his VPIP is two times less.
 
G

grandpajesse

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So what? It is a decent sample size. You will not find much deviation in VPIP as the numbers go up.
Just look at the button guy. You have only 18 hands on him, but his VPIP is two times less.

*Facepalm*
 
C

Ctrlme

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yeah I should've b/called, AJ isn't a huge part of his range, I've already talked about this ;)

AJ is in fact a huge part of his range on the river.. Everyone saying that this is an easy call are pretty far off IMO, I would make the exact same fold at 100NL

I'm not going to go into detail (take too long ;) ) but I worked out ranges and equities and it is a clear fold given his line

Remember he is NEVER shoving with worse (well maybe 95%), we need 35% equity to call to win 1/2 the pot.

Have two shots of whiskey, cry for a bit and press the fold button. Your bottom line will thank you!

(However I could be wrong.. I haven't played a hand at 10NL for ~5-6 years. For all I know he could think he is shoving KK for value..)
 
Aleksei

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Donk flop. You have like 60% immediate equity (which is huge vs 3 people), then about 86% FE vs the nit and like 50-60% vs the apparent whale, and you STILL have 38% pot equity vs both of then when they both call. Checking is just murdering your own value with 15 extremely nutty outs unless you were planning to x/r, which there's no evidence either of these two bozos will let you do.

As for the river, you're nearly always chopping. and he's bad so he probably caught 2pair or a set or whatever. You're getting 2:1 and Stove says you have 72% (assuming a range of {TT,QT,KT,J7s,J8+}), so call.
 
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Aleksei

Aleksei

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AJ is in fact a huge part of his range on the river.. Everyone saying that this is an easy call are pretty far off IMO, I would make the exact same fold at 100NL

I'm not going to go into detail (take too long ;) ) but I worked out ranges and equities and it is a clear fold given his line

Remember he is NEVER shoving with worse (well maybe 95%), we need 35% equity to call to win 1/2 the pot.

Have two shots of whiskey, cry for a bit and press the fold button. Your bottom line will thank you!

(However I could be wrong.. I haven't played a hand at 10NL for ~5-6 years. For all I know he could think he is shoving KK for value..)
Shitty stations don't read boards. Shitty stations just think either "hmm, this hand might have some value, I call down"; "hmm, he might be bluffing so I'm good, I call"; "what the **** could he be doing that with? Let's call and find out" and finally OMGOMGOMG I HAVE AN AWESOME HAND HEHEHE I RAISE!!!!1" so they can do this with any hand they consider awesome enough to bet, regardless of texture.

Ergo, all that we can deduce from his river bet is that he has better than a pair (probably much better but not necessarily a better straight), and that the T completed his hand. And lest we forget, WE ARE GETTING 2:1.
 
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