€10 NLHE 6-max: Poker variance at it's most brutal.

This hand just crushed me, how can a maniac have such a freaking unbelievable run?? This was easily the most crazy table I have ever played on. I choose my spots were carefully and had almost doubled up. I had been thinking to myself what should I do if I get AK? Should I really risk it all? I said to myself that yes equity wise on this table AK is a shove and I was right, only problem was the variance just demotivated me and I left this table immediately afterwards.

Heck I even shouted "non sense" in the chat box something I never do. I still cannot believe what I saw last night, this guy was just on a sort of run that I have never seen before.

This hand also teaches me that a buy-in really needs to be very insignificant compared to your BR so one can lose such hands and not be so upset. But then again if that's really the case then perhaps one won't be so motivated to play.

Do you feel I shouldn't have done this? I always play a cash game equity wise and I try not to be results oriented. This is one of those rare instances where I somewhat regretted making the right decision.

iPoker - €0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: 191.5 BB (VPIP: 23.76, PFR: 9.43, 3Bet Preflop: 6.00, Hands: 428)
MP: 102.5 BB (VPIP: 50.58, PFR: 36.05, 3Bet Preflop: 16.36, Hands: 173)
CO: 179.5 BB (VPIP: 30.26, PFR: 19.08, 3Bet Preflop: 4.23, Hands: 155)
BTN: 1285.4 BB (VPIP: 67.10, PFR: 47.10, 3Bet Preflop: 43.37, Hands: 156)
SB: 100.5 BB (VPIP: 14.29, PFR: 8.57, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 35)
Hero (BB): 181.2 BB

6 players post ante of 0.2 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.7 BB) Hero has A:diamond: K:diamond:

fold, MP raises to 2 BB, CO calls 2 BB, BTN raises to 10 BB, fold, Hero raises to 180 BB, fold, fold, BTN calls 170 BB

Flop: (365.7 BB, 2 players) Q:diamond: 9:club: 4:heart:
Hero bets 1 BB, BTN calls 1 BB

Turn: (367.7 BB, 2 players) 2:spade:

River: (367.7 BB, 2 players) 3:heart:

BTN shows 8:heart: Q:heart: (One Pair, Queens) (Pre 36%, Flop 74%, Turn 86%)
Hero mucks A:diamond: K:diamond: (High Card, Ace) (Pre 64%, Flop 26%, Turn 14%)
BTN wins 347.7 BB

I know what you mean , been there
that's just fish being fish ..

you gambled IMO, you could have easily done a normal sized 3bet and im sure he is calling that to see a flop.

C bet since you raised, he will probably call the flop then you shut down.

although you lose some, you wouldnt have lost it all.

But thats how I play in the micros. Not sure if that has significance in the higher limits

Nice hand.

How does raising to 180bb when the pot holds 14.7bb constitute "the right decision"?

Arjonius said:

How does raising to 180bb when the pot holds 14.7bb constitute "the right decision"?

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my thoughts exactly

Arjonius said:

How does raising to 180bb when the pot holds 14.7bb constitute "the right decision"?

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Because I know there is a big chance he is going to call me with the worse hand. And that's exactly what happened.

IF we know that we have a Loose villian then we should rarely want to shove on him pre flop. This is gambling. Post flop is where you destroy a Loose player because they will call with worse more times and pay you off more often. I use a HUD and wont shove AI with my AK unless the are a little bit of a better player. Here is why

Better players will call AI with usually AA KK QQ JJ TT AK AQ AJ

So how often are we running into AA or KK with AK? not often
QQ-TT? we flip often here.

But this is were most REg players make mistakes. CAlling AI with A weaker ace. This is were we get profit on all in AK shoves.

They are on a 3 out draw ( not including flushes)

I just think you could have played that AK better instead of shove and pray.

If this was a tournament GO for it! Not against it. But cash, no.. sorry :/

erm against a mega fish, shoving AK isn't always a good idea, we're only going to be a 3:2 favourite over the majority of his calling range and even behind occasionally, you did get the hand in best and that's all you can do in poker, against these type of maniacs though i believe it's best to try and harness the best amount of equity possible, so if i was playing at this table i'd be sitting waiting for my QQ+ and trying to get it in against him in a spot i am positive i have him dominated 4:1

Thinker_145 said:

Because I know there is a big chance he is going to call me with the worse hand. And that's exactly what happened.

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So one reason to overshove, and how does the fact this particular opponent happened to call make it a good one?

And since you're so confident weaker hands will call, it seems like you shouldn't need AK for your play, just something better than their calling range. So how wide do you suggest we should overshove in this spot?

Also, are there no reasons not to overshove?

darkassassin89 said:

IF we know that we have a Loose villian then we should rarely want to shove on him pre flop. This is gambling. Post flop is where you destroy a Loose player because they will call with worse more times and pay you off more often. I use a HUD and wont shove AI with my AK unless the are a little bit of a better player. Here is why

Better players will call AI with usually AA KK QQ JJ TT AK AQ AJ

So how often are we running into AA or KK with AK? not often
QQ-TT? we flip often here.

But this is were most REg players make mistakes. CAlling AI with A weaker ace. This is were we get profit on all in AK shoves.

They are on a 3 out draw ( not including flushes)

I just think you could have played that AK better instead of shove and pray.

If this was a tournament GO for it! Not against it. But cash, no.. sorry :/

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My experience is very different from this. Regs will never call a mega shove with Ax where as many fish do especially with Axs. A reg is generally only calling a mega above with QQ+ and AK. The reason to shove a reg us because he is folding most of the time even JJ but if he calls then that's not good news most of the time.

3bet is definitely better strategy here. These maniac will call everything, should have waited for better shot.

Arjonius said:

So one reason to overshove, and how does the fact this particular opponent happened to call make it a good one?

And since you're so confident weaker hands will call, it seems like you shouldn't need AK for your play, just something better than their calling range. So how wide do you suggest we should overshove in this spot?

Also, are there no reasons not to overshove?

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See this guy had already made a 3 bet and I am OOP. It is my view that a 4 bet has to be either a shove or a really substantial bet. So do you suppose I raise to something like 30BB, miss the flop and fold? I saw this guy take down pots with bottom pair against another player who was 3 barrelling every hand. There is absolutely no value in a C bet if I miss the flop.

Or of course I could just call and shove if I hit TPTK or fold if I don't but that to me seems like playing scared.

Oh and if I had doubled up this hand then my range of pre flop shove would be reduced to AA and possibly KK. But with his mega stack it's really tricky to play AK in that spot.

Isn't cash game poker all about getting all your chips in while you are ahead? Isn't being scared of 3:2 advantage a results oriented approach?

If he had called me with 22 then it would have been a real gamble on my part. But I figured I have the best hand, people are not folding on this table so I might as well shove and I was right.

Oh and BTW in this particular spot I am nearly a 2:1 favourite so I don't see how this was a bad decision.

honestly shoving isn't that bad of a play, you can be confident you're getting it in ahead meaning the play has a positive expectation , but AK is a drawing hand, i'd rather opt to see a flop instead of running the risk of being outdrawn by a weaker hand which was what happened in this spot, the shoves fine it's just a bit of a gamble.

I think you had better options. Yes you got unlucky, but I think you could have found a better spot vs this fish. The reason why fish come back is because they win in those spots.

Im not saying you played it bad, i wasnt there i dont know the situation. again, i think you could have out played him instead is my honest opinion.

Thinker_145 said:

My experience is very different from this. Regs will never call a mega shove with Ax where as many fish do especially with Axs. A reg is generally only calling a mega above with QQ+ and AK. The reason to shove a reg us because he is folding most of the time even JJ but if he calls then that's not good news most of the time.

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micro reg to be exact. Just because they are regs doesnt mean they are good lol

darkassassin89 said:

micro reg to be exact. Just because they are regs doesnt mean they are good lol

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Anyone who calls a massive shove with AQ is either a fish or tilting. Unless of course players have history with each other which is a different situation.

Why is it shove or fold here? You are 180bb deep to start the hand and the 3bet was only to 10bb. Your stack is far from committed.

Shoving is not good.

Perhaps I missed something, but can someone explain why you bet huge preflop then lead with 1BB OTF then checked it through? Seems like neither aggressive or passive but just... weak?

at the 1bb behind.

As for the rest, against maniacs this is +EV, end of story. Healthy BRM enables this kind of stuff to be money minting. at all the ranges talk.

ScottRNugent said:

Perhaps I missed something, but can someone explain why you bet huge preflop then lead with 1BB OTF then checked it through? Seems like neither aggressive or passive but just... weak?

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I was going to shove all in pre but mistakenly left 1 BB behind lol. I wasn't checking the turn and river, I was all in.

LD1977 said:

at the 1bb behind.

As for the rest, against maniacs this is +EV, end of story. Healthy BRM enables this kind of stuff to be money minting. at all the ranges talk.

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This is exactly the sort of mentality I have when playing poker. But yes it requires healthy BR and a long term approach of making money.

And that 1BB thing wasn't intentional hehe.

Thinker_145 said:

Oh and BTW in this particular spot I am nearly a 2:1 favourite so I don't see how this was a bad decision.

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You were 2:1 against his actual hand, which is 20/20 hindsight.

Would it have been an equally good decision to shove if he had called and flipped over AA or AK, both of which are presumably also in his calling range?

Arjonius said:

You were 2:1 against his actual hand, which is 20/20 hindsight.

Would it have been an equally good decision to shove if he had called and flipped over AA or AK, both of which are presumably also in his calling range?

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That wouldn't be a bad decision but bad luck or bad read. Even against good players its generally not easy to get away with AA vs AKs anyways if you play aggressively because by the time you realise you might be in trouble you have so much invested anyways. Who here has ever folded AKs pre?

Even if I had played this hand the normal way I am still losing close to 50 BB without knowing if I really was beat or not.

Thinker_145 said:

Who here has ever folded AKs pre?

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I've snap folded it pre after getting limp/raised by a reg fish. He showed KK.


Anyway...

Just because a player is a huge aggro fish doesn't mean he's calling off 170bb with junk. He may have actually done it in this case, but his poor decision doesn't make your decision good. You basically gave him every incentive to fold instead of 4betting a normal amount and letting him call with a dominated range. In most cases, you are just going to fold out a TON of worse hands and get snapped off by AK/QQ+. The guy is clearly a fish, so use your postflop edge to make money.