$10 NLHE 6-max: Pocket 9s, should I raise this flop?

bgomez89

bgomez89

Resident Thugmaster
Silver Level
Joined
Jan 3, 2009
Total posts
3,127
Chips
0
$10 NL HE 6-max: Pocket 9s, should I raise this flop?

Hey guys no real reads on the guy over 27 hands hes an 18/14. Is it ok that I c/r this flop? Previous hand I just stacked a guy with pocket 66s and flopped a full house (board was K 6 K and the guy had KQ) if that helps. Since I did raise the flop what do I do to his turn raise? Should I have even bet the turn after his flop call?

poker stars $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 864989
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BTN: $23.89
Hero (SB): $19.06
BB: $10.00
UTG: $10.00
MP: $4.00
CO: $10.51

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is SB with 9
diamond.gif
9
heart.gif

2 folds, CO raises to $0.30, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.25, 1 fold

Flop: ($0.70) 5
heart.gif
3
spade.gif
5
club.gif
(2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $0.40, Hero raises to $1.50, CO calls $1.10

Turn: ($3.70) 4
club.gif
(2 players)
Hero bets $2, CO raises to $5, Hero
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

Is drawing with AK
Silver Level
Joined
Jan 2, 2007
Total posts
8,819
Chips
0
Preflop stats? Because 3-betting pre should definitely be on the table here.

Against an 18/14, I don't hate check/raising this flop, but when you do, you have to be ready to stack it. The 4 on the turn doesn't hit his range much, except maybe the odd A2s, so you pretty much need to be willing to stack this. You should probably lean towards just check/calling though if your table image is good, or you think this guy is aggressive. I also think you should consider bet/3-betting this flop as well (instead of check/raising), given the stack sizes.

Some ranges I made up:

Range when he c-bets the flop:
33.5% { 22+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, J9s+, T9s, 98s, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+ }
66.8% { 99 }


Range after he shoves over your turn bet:

60.9% { 55+, 33, AcKc, AcQc, AcJc }
39.1% { 99 }


So if these ranges are anywhere near accurate, they essentially tell you that you have enough equity to stack the turn, given the money already in the pot. I also might've put too many floats in his range, but people do weird stuff on paired boards, so its probably wrong to count out random goofiness.

Tricky hand. Lots of different lines I like here. But I think if you are going to make a big pot & commit yourself with a check/raise, you need to stack this.
 
Last edited:
bgomez89

bgomez89

Resident Thugmaster
Silver Level
Joined
Jan 3, 2009
Total posts
3,127
Chips
0
So when you 3bet this are you hoping for a fold? If we 3bet and he calls do we bet/ call shove on this board?
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

Is drawing with AK
Silver Level
Joined
Jan 2, 2007
Total posts
8,819
Chips
0
So when you 3bet this are you hoping for a fold? If we 3bet and he calls do we bet/ call shove on this board?
Yeah, 99 is an in between hand, so when we 3-bet, we can 3-bet either as a bluff or for value. The trick is to know which we're doing.

I kinda gazed over the fact that we only have a small sample on our opponent. But at 10NL, I'd probably lean towards 3-betting for value. Once we make a huge 3-bet pot, we probably can't fold. And most players at this level, at least in my experience, don't fold to 3-bets as often as they should.

However, if we had stats that villain didn't steal wide, and folded a lot to 3-bets, then we should be 3-betting as a bluff (and thus, bet/folding this flop).
 
bgomez89

bgomez89

Resident Thugmaster
Silver Level
Joined
Jan 3, 2009
Total posts
3,127
Chips
0
Yeah, 99 is an in between hand, so when we 3-bet, we can 3-bet either as a bluff or for value. The trick is to know which we're doing.

I kinda gazed over the fact that we only have a small sample on our opponent. But at 10NL, I'd probably lean towards 3-betting for value. Once we make a huge 3-bet pot, we probably can't fold. And most players at this level, at least in my experience, don't fold to 3-bets as often as they should.

However, if we had stats that villain didn't steal wide, and folded a lot to 3-bets, then we should be 3-betting as a bluff (and thus, bet/folding this flop).
Whats at the bottom of your range for 3betting for value/3betting as a bluff against an opponent like this(unknown)?
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

Is drawing with AK
Silver Level
Joined
Jan 2, 2007
Total posts
8,819
Chips
0
Whats at the bottom of your range for 3betting for value/3betting as a bluff against an opponent like this(unknown)?
99/AQ for value. I don't really have a "bottom of my bluffing range", since by definition, its the bottom of our range anyways.

I don't hate calling pre, its just going to get us into weird spots with 2nd pair or a weak over pair OOP. And that's really tough to play when the SPR is larger. But yeah, 3-betting is also going to get us into some pickles, but with the SPR lower, I feel more comfortable stacking a weaker over pair.

Also, I think this hand history is really interesting. You've essentially picked a hand that's at the bottom of our range (or close to it) for calling and 3-betting and is very difficult to play post flop. I hope we get some more responses to this thread.
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 7, 2007
Total posts
22,973
Chips
0
Hey guys no real reads on the guy over 27 hands hes an 18/14. Is it ok that I c/r this flop? Previous hand I just stacked a guy with pocket 66s and flopped a full house (board was K 6 K and the guy had KQ) if that helps. Since I did raise the flop what do I do to his turn raise? Should I have even bet the turn after his flop call?

Poker Stars $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 864989
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BTN: $23.89
Hero (SB): $19.06
BB: $10.00
UTG: $10.00
MP: $4.00
CO: $10.51

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is SB with 9
diamond.gif
9
heart.gif

2 folds, CO raises to $0.30, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.25, 1 fold

Flop: ($0.70) 5
heart.gif
3
spade.gif
5
club.gif
(2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $0.40, Hero raises to $1.50, CO calls $1.10

Turn: ($3.70) 4
club.gif
(2 players)
Hero bets $2, CO raises to $5, Hero

Are you raising the flop as a bluff, for value, or for protection? I'm not sure it functions well as anything but for protection and that's generally not a great reason to raise. I def. do think it leans more toward value than bluff though so if it's for value that we raised the flop the turn changes nothing other than the fact that the villain has committed himself. I can't see myself ever folding the turn here given the way the rest of the hand has played out. I stick his last ~$3.70 in and I think we'll see Axcc/AK/66/77/88 enough to make it profitable. Case could be made for calling the turn raise and ch/calling any river card if we think he ever folds overs if we shove the turn but bluff shoves a lot of rivers, I suppose. I probably just get the rest in on the turn though because we can't rely on him to shove the river with basically zero FE.
 
forsakenone

forsakenone

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 24, 2009
Total posts
1,385
Chips
0
i like the 3-bet on the flop, but on the turn i just shut down in this spot, seems like a tight player i i doubt he is bluffing here.
 
Top