$10 NLHE 6-max: passive villain fires river on 77K7Q, best move for value w/KQ?

Villain is a passive station (43/0) after very short (11 hand) sample.

Everything until the river seems fairly standard.

Poker Stars $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 1228765
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

BTN: $10.01
SB: $7.12
BB: $13.54
Hero (UTG): $12.53
CO: $10.00

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is UTG with Q

K

Hero raises to $0.25, 3 folds, BB calls $0.15

Flop: ($0.55) 7

K

7

(2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.40, BB calls $0.40

Turn: ($1.35) 7

(2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1.10, BB calls $1.10

River: ($3.55) J

(2 players)
BB bets $1, Hero ???

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Clearly not a fold but is it a value raise or a call?

jam jam jam

You're concerned about exactly one hand (A7) versus the entire range of hands that contain a K or some pocket pair?

Expect to tie a lot here, but what he ^^^ said.

Really that simple? What are you expecting a passive villain to lead this river with after X/C two streets?

Basically...I'm curious what part of villain's betting range will call a raise/shove that I actually beat. With that in mind is a non-shove raise going to be more profitable?

I would just call.

ship in the nickels, it is basically that simple, you have a lot of the time the best hand here or a split, and a lot of the time he does that as a blocking bet.

We never win vs. his calling range. We never ever fold out better or get worse to call.

Think about our narrow our range is. Even people on first-level thinking would probably figure we have a K here. Admittedly the hands that beat us are unlikely but it is more than just 7x:

AA
JJ

Everything else is air (will not call a raise) and Kx that we chop with.

baudib1 said:

and Kx that we chop with.

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and pay a lot of rake.

It's a basic WA/WB situation. Worse is folding and better is calling.

baudib1 said:

We never win vs. his calling range. We never ever fold out better or get worse to call.

Think about our narrow our range is. Even people on first-level thinking would probably figure we have a K here. Admittedly the hands that beat us are unlikely but it is more than just 7x:

AA
JJ

Everything else is air (will not call a raise) and Kx that we chop with.

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Maybe he misclicks enough to make it profitable

_dogmeat said:

and pay a lot of rake.

It's a basic WA/WB situation. Worse is folding and better is calling.

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Yeah...the "don't raise as I expect a split and f*** paying more rake" thought line happens a lot more often than I'd expect.

@baudib - you think villain is ever blocking here with like Qx/Ax/66-88 and will pay off a min-raise or something? Or is that too spewy in the face of the far more likely Kx/x7?

IDK, I think that a passive player here can call down with a pocket pair (Zeebo) but I doubt he leads out like this.

_dogmeat said:

It's a basic WA/WB situation.

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Um, aren't all river situations?

Its also a basic Zeebo theorem situation.

I don't think villain can fold a jack here. So that should pretty much tell you what I think.

I think that's true if the board is 7J7 K 7 but how does he get to the river with a random J?

baudib1 said:

I think that's true if the board is 7J7 K 7 but how does he get to the river with a random J?

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Villain sucks.

baudib1 said:

I think that's true if the board is 7J7 K 7 but how does he get to the river with a random J?

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If it was AJ, he may have thought his ace high was good.

If villain calls a raise with tens:

48.193% { KdQc }
51.807% { TT+, AJs, A7s, K9s+, QsJs, JsTs, J7s, T7s, 97s, 87s, 75s+, AKo, AJo, A7o, K9o+, 87o, 76o }

So meht, flat if you like. You can pretty much sway this either way you want by changing an assumption or two about his range. I feel like villain will be calling all the way down to like 88 in this spot if we raise.

c9h13no3 said:

If villain calls a raise with tens:

48.193% { KdQc }
51.807% { TT+, AJs, A7s, K9s+, QsJs, JsTs, J7s, T7s, 97s, 87s, 75s+, AKo, AJo, A7o, K9o+, 87o, 76o }

So meht, flat if you like. You can pretty much sway this either way you want by changing an assumption or two about his range. I feel like villain will be calling all the way down to like 88 in this spot if we raise.

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note how much of our equity is in chops. My stove has us at 32%.

baudib1 said:

note how much of our equity is in chops. My stove has us at 32%.

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51.064% { TT+, AJs, A7s, QsJs, JsTs, J7s, T7s, 97s, 87s, AJo, A7o, 87o, 76o }
48.936% { KdQc }

Removing the chops doesn't do much to our equity. Cuz you know, if you're averaging 50% equity, and you remove a bunch of 50%'s, it doesn't affect the average... Really this comes down to this:

1) How many pairs other than JJ/KK/AA does villain have in his range (Jx included)?
2) Does he slowplay all his quads/boats?
3) Does he fold smaller pairs on the river.

I think the answer to question #1 is pretty wide, down to 5's mebbe. I think #2 mebbe so. #3, I don't think he folds most of them.

I mean, in any given hand vs. a NL10 unknown they have a certain amount of WTF range but you also have a passive player fire into you after c/c 2 streets. Zeebo, fine, but also Beluga. Our relative hand strength given the board is not great when the nuts is reasonably likely -- we are talking about a handful of combinations he gets to the river with in most cases (QJss is pretty generous imo).

baudib1 said:

(QJss is pretty generous imo).

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Uh, what fish do you know folds flush draws?