$10 NLHE 6-max: Overpair on paired board facing min raise

No Brainer

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Villain is 25/17 9% 3 bet over 120 hands. I have a note on him that he donk/folded on a paired board.

The raise on the flop is so small we should be continuing here if he would ever do this with a flush draw right? If we do continue what's the plan for the rest of the hand? There are a lot of ugly turn cards for us including clubs and overs.

poker stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

Hero (SB): $15.01 (150.1 bb)
BB: $10.15 (101.5 bb)
UTG: $10.15 (101.5 bb)
MP: $20.34 (203.4 bb)
CO: $11.65 (116.5 bb)
BTN: $10 (100 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with T
club4.gif
T
diamond4.gif

UTG folds, MP raises to $0.30, 2 folds, Hero raises to $0.90, BB folds, MP calls $0.60

Flop: ($1.90) 9
club4.gif
2
club4.gif
9
diamond4.gif
(2 players)
Hero bets $1.25, MP raises to $2.60 Hero???
 
IPlay

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Flush draws are blocked very hard and its a 3 bet pot unless he is calling with Ace rag suiteds pre. He pretty much has AKcc, AQcc only as flush draws. We block 109 also so only 9 he should have here is SOMETIMES 89s.

Do quads really raise this flop? Can probably discount 99 so all that is really left is pocket pairs and how wide do you think he is calling with those?

IP This deep he is probably calling pretty wide with PP so 77+

Does he raise 77-88 to see where he is at or to charge overs or some other weird logic here?

Does he slow play QQ+ pre flop to raise and get stacks in on low flops from your 1010/JJ type hands?

Ask yourself these questions and then assign a range and see where you are at.

FWIW I am peeling a flop min raise here as a standard when readless.
 
No Brainer

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Yeh that's the thing, I think I am currently doing Ok against his range and have the direct pot odds to continue. I think the big problem is that we are in a tricky spot for the rest of the hand if we call here.

Do we just fold to a turn bet if it is a club, Ace or King?

Even if the turn and river are blanks, do we have to shut down to a river bet?
 
TimovieMan

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I'm shutting down to a club, ace or king, yes.

If none fall, then I'm calling the river, but hating it.
 
John A

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Aggression numbers? Aren't those the most important stats here?
 
No Brainer

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Aggression numbers? Aren't those the most important stats here?

His aggression percentage is 50% overall, flop - 43%, turn - 58%, river - 57% with an aggression factor of 10.5.

A few questions about aggression stats,

What are the different conclusions we can draw with agg % vs agg factor?

What sort of numbers would you consider to be aggressive, normal and passive?

What sort of hand sample do we need to make aggression stats reliable? Obviously need more hands to make the turn and river reliable than just the flop/overall.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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Wow, that's aggressive! Especially since he's not a 15/14 or something nitty like that.

Aggression % converges pretty quick. It's not # of hands that matter, but number of flops seen. I used fold to flop bet X/X or cbet X/X on my HUD.
 
Aces2w1n

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Shouldn't we be raising $1.10 or $1.20 pre?

Also leading out doesn't that cancel everything we beat from villain? So a call generally means higher pp. and fold means he folds out lower side of his range.
So I guess if he re-raises he's got a nutty/bluff range.

Call flop raise and re-assess on turn?
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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No one folds a pair on this flop for 1 bet. Unless they're setmining in a 3-bet pot (but if they're making that mistake, they're likely still calling too).
 
IPlay

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Yeah pre should probably be larger since we are deep and OOP
 
Figaroo2

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aggression

His aggression percentage is 50% overall, flop - 43%, turn - 58%, river - 57% with an aggression factor of 10.5.
A few questions about aggression stats,
What are the different conclusions we can draw with agg % vs agg factor?
What sort of numbers would you consider to be aggressive, normal and passive?
What sort of hand sample do we need to make aggression stats reliable? Obviously need more hands to make the turn and river reliable than just the flop/overall.

That is a very high level of aggression, from using Leakbuster regularly the acceptable best level is AF 2.5-3.6. Any lower they are passive any higher they are aggro and outside of these ranges you can become slightly exploitable.

Agg % over that sort of sample anything over 41% is agg, under 31% is passive, 35% ideal

So AF 10.5 means he literally raises for fun almost every play, in which case we are definitely at least calling.

I can see a case for re-raising GII on the flop or if he calls jamming any low non club on the turn. I'd want to be protecting this hand from his overcards/backdoor flush draws. There are a lot of unblocked broadways and aces here, for me the min raise pretty much guarantees he has at least one big club.

.
 
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