$10 NLHE 6-max: Over Pair vs drawy board

fletchdad

fletchdad

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Villain 26/16 AF 0.4 127 hands

I am wanting to check behind here since his line has been so passive and all kinds of draws got there, and I am thinking he will expect me to bet this river. Am I missing value by checking, or is any hand I beat folding anyway?

Party Poker - $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Holdem (5 players)
Party Poker Hand Converter Tool from CardsChat.com

SB: $22.27
BB: $11.37
UTG Hero: $10.01
CO: $19.09
BTN: $13.69

Pre-flop: ($0.15) Hero is UTG and dealt :kc4: :kd4:
Hero raises to $0.30, 2 folds, SB calls $0.25, BB calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.90) :7c4: :9s4: :jd4: (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $0.60, SB calls $0.60, BB folds

Turn: ($2.10) :7c4: :9s4: :jd4: :qc4: (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1.10, SB calls $1.10

River: ($4.30) :7c4: :9s4: :jd4: :qc4: :2c4: (2 players)
SB checks, Hero ?
 
benevg

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not every hand you beat is folding (AQ or even QT might stay), so i would recommend bet/folding here... or even bet/calling a small raise since not everyone will have hit a runner-runner.
 
jordanbillie

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I am an Omaha player first, so I advocate for checking behind here. I am interested to see what other experienced NLHE players have to say about this hand.
 
B

baudib1

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Bet larger all streets so you can shove the river.
 
acky100

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Checking is bad when so much worse can call. Not many draws have actually got there by the looks.

Turn bet is what i really dont like though, pretty much what baudib said actually, you can get stacks in against worse against loose passive types here.

4x pre
 
J

J_moly88

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Bet larger all streets so you can shove the river.

Are these kinds of spots where you want to aim getting your stack in?

If he's calling all 3 streets, more often than not he'll be showing 2 pair or a set.

I think the bet sizes are good, maybe a bit more on the turn. I would bet 50-75% on the river and fold to a big re-raise.

If you aim to get your stack in by the river, I think you are being called by better pretty much every time (occasionally AQ). Any worse hands will fold. If you bet the river the way you have played it, worse hands will be calling from time to time and you can get away from a shove (I think you would only need about 20% equity to call a shove, but I don't think you would even be getting that in this situation).

Can someone explain the thinking behind wanting to get your stack in by the river with this hand? Cheers.
 
jbbb

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easy b/f on the river I think. A 0.4 AF isn't shoving worse but will call with worse.
 
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baudib1

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Are these kinds of spots where you want to aim getting your stack in?

If he's calling all 3 streets, more often than not he'll be showing 2 pair or a set.

I think the bet sizes are good, maybe a bit more on the turn. I would bet 50-75% on the river and fold to a big re-raise.

If you aim to get your stack in by the river, I think you are being called by better pretty much every time (occasionally AQ). Any worse hands will fold. If you bet the river the way you have played it, worse hands will be calling from time to time and you can get away from a shove (I think you would only need about 20% equity to call a shove, but I don't think you would even be getting that in this situation).

Can someone explain the thinking behind wanting to get your stack in by the river with this hand? Cheers.

To maximize your winnings. Betsizing with big hands needs to be correct, which is why sizing on all streets is pretty important. Lines with big hands that don't carry with it the implicit threat of an all-in by the river should be eliminated from your play.
 
Deco

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I bet $1.80

I bet more on the flop. We have a drawy board and a fish. He's probably calling with 78/89/TT/88/T9/JT/QJ/KJ/AJ/A9/K9/Q9/67/KQ. This board isn't that wet for a tag but for a fish anything that makes a gutshot and a pair is coming along.

The turn is thinner but I bet all the same. I don't mind the sizing. It has ****ed stuff up as other than KQ all of the range I mentioned before is either weaker and less likely to call or now beats us.

The river is very thin as a lot of the weaker gutshotpair hands may leave us such as 78/89/T9 etc and even a jack may leave. A pot bet is defo -EV, a $2 bet will allow the weaker hands to call and give us ample room to fold should QJ/Q9 etc shove.
 
dooydoo

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fletch you really need to start betting bigger for value. I guarantee your winrate is cut in half simply from poor bet sizing. Every time you play a session bet huge for value and half pot as a bluff by default and adjust from there.

On the flop and turn i would bet near pot.

On the river i would bet small to get lots of worse to call and fold to a raise like it has been said.
 
dwbrown7680

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+1 to all streets needing to be bigger. You're costing yourself a lot of value on a board that you'll get tons of calls from worse hands on. I'm not objected to b/f here on the river though.
 
Nathan Williams

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More on the turn, really all streets like a lot of the others said. And ya, I am usually betting the river here. I don't think he has clubs very often. When he checks to us on the river I think he mostly has one pair hands. You could bet half pot here and probably get a call quite a bit of the time.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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Checking this river is burning money.
 
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