$10 NLHE 6-max: NL 10 Zoom: Flush Q High on Wet board

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 22/17/2

PokerStars - $0.10 NL ZOOM (6 max)

BTN: 228.2 BB (VPIP: 22 , PFR: 17, 3Bet Preflop: 6, AF 2,00 hands: 333)
SB: 288.4 BB
BB: 104.5 BB
UTG: 164 BB
MP: 100 BB
Hero (CO): 123.1 BB


Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q:heart: Q:diamond:

fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, BTN calls 3 BB, fold, fold

Flop: (7.5 BB, 2 players) 2:diamond: 4:diamond: 5:diamond:
Hero bets 4.8 BB, BTN calls 4.8 BB

Turn: (17.1 BB, 2 players) 9:diamond:
Hero bets 10.9 BB, BTN calls 10.9 BB

River: (38.9 BB, 2 players) 4:spade:
Hero ????

Thinking x/c if vilain bets=<50% of pot. Else x/f.

I think he's 3betting AK,AQ and KQ so I would go for him having 9xTd ,,,,I think your usually way ahead more than way behind...I would personally value bet the river.

probably B/F river

Villain seems to be tag, there isn't a lot of value that you can get by betting in this spot, since he'll probably be only calling with better. Unless if villain is capable of turning a top pair type hand into a bluff, I think the best play is, as you said, check fold. But I probably would fold to a bet that is larger than say 1/3 pot, since his betting range likely consists of only a high flushes or full houses that got there on the river

standard b/f

At these stakes, after you bet all three streets, I think your second best calling range is really going to drop here. Unless you've been really active or aggressive lately, I'd probably c/f, but maybe c/c a smallish bet. I mean his calling range on the turn is almost always going to have a D if his aggression is 2. It's just a matter of hoping he has TT/JJ/88 kind of hands with a diamond. And out of those combos, how many times is he calling a 3rd barrel with it? I don't think often enough. Maybe a different opponent and b/f would be more appropriate.

If you're saying you're behind too often to bet because his aggression is low, then c/c a smallish bet is silly.

I mean his range is almost exclusively mediumish diamonds after the turn. Letting him show down for free is terrible.

What can I say, I'm terrible.

C/c small, because he could bet some worse SMALL for value (I'll call this accounting for the bad bet factor, small bluff factor). C/f mostly because while his range is mostly medium diamonds, my opinion is this kind of player isn't calling with nearly any of those for 3 barells (maybe if we hadn't barreled the turn), so if you did the math of how many times he calls with better versus worse, and hero has to b/f, I think my line is higher EV in this spot imho. Like I said in my previous post, against a different opponent, and I think b/f is higher EV.

Looking at the preflop play this villain could have a very wide range calling from the button, it would be interesting to see the hero stats as that might effect why he just calls on the button. There are so many other overpair with diamond combos that we beat I'm considering a blocking bet here 25-30% of the pot which also acts for thin value and only folding to big re-raises.