re: Poker & $10 NLHE 6-max: New table wild action, bad call?
Originally Posted by F Paulsson
Yup, I call the flop raise, to entice SB to call. I really don't want SB to fold because this is a great board for me to play multiway.
It's trickier to figure out what to do on the turn, but most turns, be prepared to call. If we give them a range of 88+,Adkd,AdQd,AdJd,QJ,T9,98, we're still 27% to win the pot on the turn, and it's 3-way. If SB just flats the raise as well and the turn comes a 7 and the SB leads and the BB shoves, I could probably fold. Maybe the same for a card that pairs the 8 or the 9, but short of that... I just don't know.
Edit: Don't get me wrong - I don't hate shoving. But what we really, really want is for SB to shove and BB to call (so we hit the jackpot the way it played out), and I think the second best scenario is to see the turn 3-way. I'm not entirely sure that I'm right about this, by the way. It depends quite a lot on what we think BB will do with a missed draw on the turn.
Yes, I 100% agree that the scenario that played out was best for us. I also don't dislike the call on the flop nearly as much as I used to because as you pointed out, we still have pretty decent equity on bricked turns (far more than I had originally expected). This may even be my preferred line if I think SB tags along very very weak against the flop raise.
However, I still like a shove and here's why:
The primary reason I like just shoving the flop is that we will be faced with a tough turn decision almost no matter what and I'm becoming a believer of avoiding lines that put you in tough decisions if you can help it. The fact that we are read-less makes this principle even more true. I don't think that calling over shoving is +EV enough for us to call.
To elaborate a little more, let's look at the hand from the perspective of facing the reraise on the flop:
-SB did end up shoving, but I think this scenario is rare because at this point, I think SBs range is very wide. I also think BBs range contains very few draws because overall at 10nl, people play draws passively, and even if they were somewhat sophisticated, this is not a free card play because they are not last to act.
-Given this information, on the turn, we're either committing or not. Note that if SB calls, we have bad relative position from a decision making standpoint because BB is the aggressor (with what I think is a strong range). I guess bottom line is, if we can commit to calling most turns, even heads up against BB, then a call is best, but again, that seems like a marginal decision.
Just my 2 cents.
Edit: On a random note, I haven't really liked analyzing hand histories until now (I do most of my poker studying independently), but reading viewpoints that are backed up with thought and substance is quite helpful. Thanks