$10 NLHE 6-max: Miss a value bet?

xdeucesx

xdeucesx

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Villain stats: 22/14

Am I missing value by checking back nut flush on river?

I gave villain lots of sets/ 2p hands

Can't see any hands I'm beating other than straights, but I doubt str8's will be calling river bet

lots of 2p/sets which boated on river

MERGE_GAME #4956578100775: Holdem NL $0.05/$0.10 02/20/2012 19:53:28
Table Lima (49565781), Seats 6
Seat 1: JayTee3 ($10.00 in chips)
Seat 2: BRBARKER ($9.68 in chips)
Seat 3: kurtwinner ($14.22 in chips)
Seat 4: RollnAround ($10.19 in chips)
Seat 5: Hawk170 ($14.47 in chips) DEALER
Seat 6: RayRay1345 ($5.07 in chips)
RayRay1345: Post SB $0.05
JayTee3: Post BB $0.10
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to RollnAround [9s As]
BRBARKER: Raise $0.30
kurtwinner: Call $0.30
RollnAround: Call $0.30
Hawk170: Call $0.30
RayRay1345: Call $0.25
JayTee3: Fold
*** FLOP *** [8s 6s 4c]
RayRay1345: Check
BRBARKER: Check
kurtwinner: Bet $1.20
RollnAround: Call $1.20
Hawk170: Fold
RayRay1345: Fold
BRBARKER: Fold
*** TURN *** [7s]
kurtwinner: Check
RollnAround: Bet $2.66
kurtwinner: Call $2.66
*** RIVER *** [6h]
kurtwinner: Check
RollnAround: Check
*** SUMMARY ***
 
dooydoo

dooydoo

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River is about $9.22 and you have $5.84 roughly.

The rule of valuebetting is to get worse hands to call you. On this board there are some worse hands that will call but also a lot of better ones as well..

I really think a flush would have raised you on the turn because on that board he could be getting a ton of value from straights and other things.

He can have 5x in his range and didnt raise the turn because he was afraid of the flush. I dont think he will call a river bet if he was a good player with a 5x hand but its 10nl and he doesnt have awesome preflop numbers so i think he is capable of making some bad calls.

Overall i dont see anything wrong with just xing back. If the river was a 4 i would be more inclined to shove.

I still think you can get value from 5x and worse flushes but if you took the number of worse hands and compared them to better ones, he would more often have worse, but the question is will he call a bet with the worse hands or just fold.

I think xing back is a fine low variance play. You can get tons of value elsewhere when you know youre good.
 
xdeucesx

xdeucesx

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ya, i don't see him ever showing up w/smaller flushes, as you said he's definitely getting it in on turn


pretty much leaves FH's and Straights, w/lots more FH
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

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Not shoving the river is really bad. Great hand to squeeze preflop btw.
 
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NoOneYouKnow

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Easy jam. His range is plenty wider than just 2p & sets. I don't know why you would assume this as his range. I would feel I missed value if I didn't jam the nut straight on the river...
 
dooydoo

dooydoo

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he doesnt have a straight, he has a flush.
 
xdeucesx

xdeucesx

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why wouldn't he just shove flush on turn?
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

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No one said he had a flush. Hell you can get called here by all sorts of worse hands. Straights, overpairs (he probably has a couple in there), worse flushes. Also you think he never checks a flush on the river but you auto assume he checks boats??
 
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NoOneYouKnow

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he doesnt have a straight, he has a flush.

Correct. And I said I would shove all the way down to my nut straight for value, how do you think I feel about the nut flush?
 
xdeucesx

xdeucesx

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Correct. And I said I would shove all the way down to my nut straight for value, how do you think I feel about the nut flush?

shoving the nut straight here is just spewing $

look at villain's line again:

flop: donks out in multiway pot
turn: (board brings third spade) villain check/calls
river: (board boats up) villain checks

How can that line ever represent a flush?!?!

Maybe there are hands calling wider here (straights, 5x, overpairs?) but I think villain has a weaker flush like 0% of the time
 
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NoOneYouKnow

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shoving the nut straight here is just spewing $

look at villain's line again:

flop: donks out in multiway pot
turn: (board brings third spade) villain check/calls
river: (board boats up) villain checks

How can that line ever represent a flush?!?!

Maybe there are hands calling wider here (straights, 5x, overpairs?) but I think villain has a weaker flush like 0% of the time

If there are zero flushes in his range (which I don't agree with) then jamming the nut straight is the same as jamming the nut flush. Do you see why? Not important, but your thought processes are flawed.

The point I am trying to make is that this river is an easy easy value bet. You will not always win, he does have boats in his range, but there are plenty of worse hands that can call.
 
dwbrown7680

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shoving the nut straight here is just spewing $

look at villain's line again:

flop: donks out in multiway pot
turn: (board brings third spade) villain check/calls
river: (board boats up) villain checks

How can that line ever represent a flush?!?!

Maybe there are hands calling wider here (straights, 5x, overpairs?) but I think villain has a weaker flush like 0% of the time

It seems to me like you're viewing the hand too results oriented and not seeing the bigger picture of why we shove here to be profitable in the long run.
 
xdeucesx

xdeucesx

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explain to me why any reg would ever c/c flush on turn, then check back river again....
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

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explain to me why any reg would ever c/c flush on turn, then check back river again....
1) Explain why bad players do anything?
2) Why are you so hung up on him having a flush?

Fact is there are enough hands he'll call a shove with that even if he has ZERO flushes to make the shove better than checking back.
 
JOEBOB69

JOEBOB69

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1) Explain why bad players do anything?cause i want to
2) Why are you so hung up on him having a flush?

Fact is there are enough hands he'll call a shove with that even if he has ZERO flushes to make the shove better than checking back.
shove
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

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There you have it straight from the fishes mouth! :)
 
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