$10 NLHE 6-max: Line check: turning 55 into a bluff

bgomez89

bgomez89

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full tilt poker $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 1208826
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

BTN: $10.36
SB: $11.21
BB: $15.41
Hero (UTG): $10.00
MP: $17.57
CO: $9.85

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is UTG with 5
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5
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Hero raises to $0.30, 1 fold, CO calls $0.30, 3 folds

Flop: ($0.75) 3
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A
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6
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(2 players)
Hero bets $0.50, CO calls $0.50

Turn: ($1.75) K
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(2 players)
Hero bets $1.10, CO calls $1.10

River: ($3.95) 4
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(2 players)
Hero bets $3.60

villain is a 31/18/29afq flop fold to cbet is 33% 1/3

what do you guys think?
 
ChuckTs

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Think about what you're trying to actually bluff out and how a hand like that got to the river.

Obviously we're never folding out the nut flush, and (almost) never folding out Th/Jh. If he had 9h-7h, how did he get to the river with them? Did he double float 77/99? If so he never folds when he backdoors a flush. Did he flat Ax7h? Never folds.

Your hand is actually good a lot too, and given how tight people generally value bet in 'scary' spots like this, peoples' ranges for betting river will be very polarized. ie he's rarely if ever betting worse than like the Jh for value, but may turn some hands into bluffs. Either way, I think it's a clear check, and act accordingly on the river.
 
bgomez89

bgomez89

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Thanks for the response. Are you saying that because we have some showdown value and because people are only vbetting this board with a good flush most of the time we should be fine with check/folding to a bet because there's like no bluffs in his range? Just wondering, is bluffing the river better when we dont have a flush eg I have two black 5s?
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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Your hand is actually good a lot too, and given how tight people generally value bet in 'scary' spots like this, peoples' ranges for betting river will be very polarized. ie he's rarely if ever betting worse than like the Jh for value, but may turn some hands into bluffs. Either way, I think it's a clear check, and act accordingly on the river.
You think villain bluffs the river often enough to give us that 30%ish equity we need? 29% AFq is pretty passive.

My default line is to value bet this river against your average passive 10NL villain. But Chuck, if you could gimme an argument on why his range is nothing but flushes & things he won't call a river bet with, I could entertain a check/call line.
 
B

baudib1

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The funny thing is I think at much higher levels people will pay you off with worse here because you are essentially representing like nothing other than AxQh or AxJh.

Basically you will fold out worse hands on the river and very occasionally get a slightly better hand to fold.
 
rileyl

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Shouldn't we be just check/folding turn
 
ChuckTs

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@riley: not if we think he peels lots of 77+/random floats (and can fold turn), in which case a barrel is pretty good here. Otherwise if his range is more weighted towards Ax/flushes then yes, of course, c/f is much better.

@c9: I'm not advocating bluffcatching necessarily and agree this is mostly a vbet or c/f spot. I can't say that his range is flushes/hands that will fold because tbh I'm really not sure what frequency his non-flush made hands will call with. That said, if we're value betting I think I prefer just like 1/2 potting it; I doubt his range is really that inelastic in this spot and that we get a near pot bet of value from TP. Could be wrong though.
 
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