$10 NLHE 6-max: KK vs 3 bet PF caller

Villain 29/19 aggression 1.0 over 68 hands. This hand was not the last one I played with him, so at the time he was pretty unknown to me, simply had not done anything really noticeable yet.

Party Poker - $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Holdem (6 players)
Party Poker Hand Converter Tool from CardsChat.com

SB Hero: $19.80
BB: $8.44
UTG: $10.04
MP: $13.42
CO: $2.64
BTN: $11.99

Pre-flop: ($0.15) Hero is SB and dealt
UTG raises to $0.30, 2 folds, BTN calls $0.30, Hero raises to $1.20, BB folds, UTG calls $0.90, BTN calls $0.90

Flop: ($3.70) (3 players)
Hero bets $1.80, UTG calls $1.80, BTN folds

Turn: ($7.30) (2 players)
Hero ?

I also was in the dark about the flop. I was thinking AA-QQ maybe AKs he is gonna 4 bet me pre(?) and AQs(?), 22-JJ seemed more in line with his call. So I was unsure what to bet on the flop as far as size goes. If I check this turn, he can value bet or bluff and I have no idea either way. If I bet the turn I have to shove....? Betting anything small and folding seems way to wrong, checking seems way to wrong, but WTF is he still doing in this hand, other than being a complete idiot or having me crushed???

First i think you need to squeeze way bigger. You are oop and theres 2 players so about $1.50.

On the flop i would bet a lot bigger as well and look to jam a lot of turns. So i would bet around $3. Betting half pot here 3way on a wet board when a lot of the turns will hurt further action i think is a bad idea compared to betting big and jamming the turn.

I think your preflop range is off too. Not everyone will 4b AK, especially in this spot when your range here is always strong, same with QQ. His calling range will be wide because of his player type. He can easily have AJs+, all pairs, KQs and probably a few other hands.

On this turn though i expect him to have something. AJ, set (although i expect him to raise the flop more often than not), pp, flush, AK. We cant put him soley on a flush so i prefer to jam the turn. I think he will call with worse like QQ, AJ, AsXs, maybe TsTx etc.

Another stat you might want to look at to help you is fold to cb. You dont have a lot of hands on him but later on when you do also consider fold to 3b, flop xr and raise flop.

@dooydoo, thanks. A well thought out answer. Nice to have new members who contribute.

He had not been spewy or out of line at all that I had seen, but such a small amount of hands he could be smart, stupid or anything in between. I tend to make the mistake of thinking people play like me, but AJs and KQ s defo in his calling range. I would expect QQ and AKs to 4 bet here at least some of the time since I could easily be pretty polarized here, and will be folding a portion of my squeezing range to a 4 bet.

Bigger preflop (at least $1.50 and more if you think they are likely to call). Much bigger on the flop. Save the 1/2 pot bets for when you miss in 3bet pots. I'd make it $3 as played preflop. If you had played it correctly you'd be all in or very nearly by the turn so you then have no hard choice to make. As played I'd just bet again and get it in vs an unknown but again you should have never put yourself in this situation on the turn.

Bigger pre ($1.50)
Bigger on the flop (3.20)
Shove turn (As played and theoretically)

Flushes got there but it's an UTG open and it's a 3bet pot there's not going to be as many combos as a non-3bet attempted steal from the button.

QQ/AJ/KJ/TsT-88s could all look us up here for a nice 39combos.
There are only 12 sets and between 2-20ish flushes based on villains 3bet flatting range. The more flushes he has present the more Jx hands we can add to counteract it.

Even if we had less than 50% equity on average here (we don't imo). This is one of those exceptional spots were we'd still shove because our villain will shove worse.
Lets say we check and villain shoves we'd be getting laid 2 to 1 odds to call when AJ/QQ are more than likely shoving here. We'd have to call. But if we had shoved instead we'd have got more marginal hands such as weaker Jx and potentially lower pairs with draws to come along, even worse checking allows even the parts of villains range that would not have called with a spade in to see the river. When we are getting the money in either way when villain has us beat we need to look at the best way of doing so even if the equity doesn't add up to 50%. (Doesn't apply to this hand as it's above 50% but making this point to make it clear why this is a snap shove).

shove turn ainec

Anyone else realised seems to be a lot of new comers around recently who actually give good HH analysis?
Makes a change to "i raise to see where im at" or "probably just check becoz he might call wif a flush draw".

jbbb said:

Anyone else realised seems to be a lot of new comers around recently who actually give good HH analysis?
Makes a change to "i raise to see where im at" or "probably just check becoz he might call wif a flush draw".

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Yea, its a nice trend to see happening here.

should have made it bigger pre, should have bet more on flop and check fold the turn.

forsakenone said:

should have made it bigger pre, should have bet more on flop and check fold the turn.

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Lets say we check the turn and villain shoves.
We're calling $7 into a $14 pot
We need 33%equity to call

This range is absurdly pessimistic so no-one can gainsay me.
*I have included every suited connector
*I have included every suited ace
*I threw in plenty of J9/K9 crappy flushes.
*I have left out any jack weaker than KJ.
*I have included 77.
*I have not negated sets or flush draws that are likely to raise the flop.
*I have included no Flush draws

Board: Js 3s 5c 7s

Hand 0: 40.219% { KcKd }
Hand 1: 59.781% { QQ-JJ, 77, 55, 33, AsKs, AsQs, AJs, AsTs, As9s, As8s, As7s, As6s, A5s, As4s, As3s, As2s, KsQs, KJs, KsTs, Ks9s, QsJs, QsTs, Qs9s, JsTs, Js9s, Ts9s, 9s8s, 8s7s, 7s6s, 6s5s, 5s4s, AJo, KJo }

Shove!
Even then we cannot fold. Why shoving is better than C/C is explained in my previous post.

I even took QQ out of that range and we still have 34%. But ye please don;t take these ranges as serious our equity will be much higher than they suggest. This is not a close cut thing and me being able to put in a crazy pessimistic range shows that.

Hero made it 12xBB pre after villain raised 3x UTG. Suggesting that we should be 5Xing UTG raises in position with KK is just really retarded. The flop bet is way way way too small. Bet the flop bigger and turn is an easy shove. As played, bet the turn for $3.

baudib1 said:

Hero made it 12xBB pre after villain raised 3x UTG. Suggesting that we should be 5Xing UTG raises in position with KK is just really retarded.

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Hero is OOP, villain is fishy, our hand is strong, we're at 2NL.
I admit a little too much emphasis has been put on it but it's far from retarded.

sorry I thought we were OTB HU.