$10 NLHE 6-max: KK over pair vs all in on the river

M

micromoi

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BTN: 54.5 BB
SB: 147 BB (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 25.00, 3Bet Preflop: 33.33, hands: 4)
BB: 101 BB (VPIP: 10.53, PFR: 7.89, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 38)
Hero (UTG): 189.5 BB
MP: 100.5 BB (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 4)
CO: 69.5 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 2)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K:heart: K:club:

Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, BTN calls 3 BB, fold, BB calls 2 BB

Flop: (9.5 BB, 3 players) 8:club: Q:spade: 4:diamond:
BB checks, Hero bets 6 BB, BTN calls 6 BB, BB calls 6 BB

Turn: (27.5 BB, 3 players) T:heart:
BB checks, Hero bets 17.5 BB, BTN calls 17.5 BB, fold

River: (62.5 BB, 2 players) J:heart:
Hero checks, BTN bets 28 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 28 BB
 
TimovieMan

TimovieMan

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Bet more on the turn.

I'd bet half pot on the river. He'll call wider than he'll bet.
 
C

CactusCat

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You are getting better than 3:1 and for that I price I might call too since KQ/AQ sometimes desperation shove as a bluff and use the river as a scare card since they perceive you as having big pairs you can laydown.

He can have some Q9/J9 hands as well... I think this is a case where from the button he actually does have the straight or two pair a lot. A lot of players do correctly value bet 2pairs here vs. UTG raises. your turn bet should have folded out cheap floats with backdoor equity like A5 of clubs, so most of his hands beat you.

If you ever think he can turn a random 1-pair hand like A8 into a bluff, I'd call. If he's at all a solid type of player, I'd fold.
 
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