$10 NLHE 6-max: KK facing aggression on dry board

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Kidsoldja

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$10 NL HE 6-max: KK facing aggression on dry board

villain 26/21 over 77

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.10(BB) Replayer
SB ($10)
BB ($10.25)
Hero ($10)
UTG+1 ($10)
CO ($11.82)
BTN ($6.17)

Dealt to Hero
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Hero raises to $0.30, fold, CO calls $0.30, fold, fold, fold

FLOP ($0.75)
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5s.gif
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Hero bets $0.40, CO raises to $1.20, Hero calls $0.80

TURN ($3.15)
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Hero checks, CO bets $2.40, Hero ?

should i just raise the flop and get it in? is it wrong to feel that villain might be raising a set on such a dry flop? i think this might be one of my greater leaks...
 
blueskies

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He's an aggressive guy. He probably thinks the flop missed you too. He figures you would have reraised him on the flop with a huge hand. Maybe he puts ya on AK or AQ.
 
Stu_Ungar

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He probably has a set!

There is little point in reraising the flop.

You must donk out for 1/2 pot on the turn.

If he raises again you can happily fold, if you check you are underrepping your hand and forcing yourself to call down 2 streets.

So KK against a flop raise is still likely best but against a flop raise + turn raise its no good. You are only putting in about 1/3 of your stack this way so folding isnt a disaster given the way the hand plays out. However if he didnt reraise until the river you would still put in 1/3 of your stack.

If the CO is very passive postflop or nitty preflop then I would probably just muck to a flop raise but if he has been raising a bit then I wouldnt fold to 1 raise.
 
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ComplexPlaya

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He has a set or overpair that you beat, possibly AT, possibly 66-99. Or air. He probably always bets the turn here, maybe less with air, but if he doesn't it's pretty weak.

I think you should shove the turn and if you lose to a set shrug it off.
 
Stu_Ungar

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He has a set or overpair that you beat, possibly AT, possibly 66-99. Or air. He probably always bets the turn here, maybe less with air, but if he doesn't it's pretty weak.

I think you should shove the turn and if you lose to a set shrug it off.

An overpair is fairly unlikely as the CO did not 3bet you would expect him to 3bet at least QQ+ so that leaves JJ

There are 9 combos of sets he could have and 6 for JJ so the range shifts to sets or air.

If you shove the turn you fold out the air and get called by the sets. It dosent matter if he calls / folds JJ he still wins with a range of sets and JJ more than he loses.
 
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you have to add 67 and Tx hands to this range, you are being extremely cautious with the range you built. villain never has AA here and I agree with that.
how about this range?
TT,55-44,ATs,KTs,QTs,76s
I added only suited hands not because I think he only plays suited hands but because it decreases combo #s and balances the range where off suit hands will completely overpower the relatively few set combos.
you are flipping vs this range btw
 
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ComplexPlaya

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An overpair is fairly unlikely as the CO did not 3bet you would expect him to 3bet at least QQ+ so that leaves JJ

There are 9 combos of sets he could have and 6 for JJ so the range shifts to sets or air.

If you shove the turn you fold out the air and get called by the sets. It dosent matter if he calls / folds JJ he still wins with a range of sets and JJ more than he loses.

Skaplun's post made me rethink this, and even more in favor of shoving.

Here's why :

Villain is 27/21, he's IP so we can say he calls something about 10% of his hands here, maybe more maybe less but we can go with that. Adding a few pairs in pokerstove, 11% range is something like

JJ-22,A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,AJo+,KQo

Also, he's an aggro player. He will raise cbets on dry boards often enough, especially if he has a draw, even a backdoor. Happens to me all the time, and I do it all the time as well with air too against regs.

So we can include suited hearts from his range there, AT,kT, QT, I think JT and T9 (mostly suited) as well although they're not in the PS range. He may or may not call most of his 10's here, he probably will AT and KT, I'm pretty sure 66-99 fit well here too.

I don't know if he'll call stacks with a FD but even if he doesn't we're not letting him improve for free or hand him the pot.

So I think you'll agree the combos he raises flop and bets the turn with are way higher than sets and JJ, even if we're behind the range that calls our shove it's not by much and the FE more than compensates for that. We can't call OOP because we're clueless on the river, alot of cards will make for great bluff spots

If he was nitty or 17/14 folding here makes way more sense, as he is in LAG-ish territory I doubt it
 
Stu_Ungar

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Skaplun's post made me rethink this, and even more in favor of shoving.

Here's why :

Villain is 27/21, he's IP so we can say he calls something about 10% of his hands here, maybe more maybe less but we can go with that. Adding a few pairs in pokerstove, 11% range is something like

JJ-22,A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,AJo+,KQo

Also, he's an aggro player. He will raise cbets on dry boards often enough, especially if he has a draw, even a backdoor. Happens to me all the time, and I do it all the time as well with air too against regs.

So we can include suited hearts from his range there, AT,kT, QT, I think JT and T9 (mostly suited) as well although they're not in the PS range. He may or may not call most of his 10's here, he probably will AT and KT, I'm pretty sure 66-99 fit well here too.

I don't know if he'll call stacks with a FD but even if he doesn't we're not letting him improve for free or hand him the pot.

So I think you'll agree the combos he raises flop and bets the turn with are way higher than sets and JJ, even if we're behind the range that calls our shove it's not by much and the FE more than compensates for that. We can't call OOP because we're clueless on the river, alot of cards will make for great bluff spots

If he was nitty or 17/14 folding here makes way more sense, as he is in LAG-ish territory I doubt it

You dont have enough invested in the pot to shove.
 
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ComplexPlaya

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You dont have enough invested in the pot to shove.

Sorry, why does that matter? If it's a winning play it will bring profit long-term, folding you will always lose what you invested already, calling probably more.

So the only issue is if shoving here wins long-term or loses, how is that thinking wrong ?
 
forsakenone

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26/21 loose aggressive, probably has JJ or AT, QQ maybe. i would reraise on the flop, try to get it all in on the turn.

this is 10nl, even if he has a set it is so wrong to fold a pair of kings on a board like that.
 
Stu_Ungar

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Sorry, why does that matter? If it's a winning play it will bring profit long-term, folding you will always lose what you invested already, calling probably more.

So the only issue is if shoving here wins long-term or loses, how is that thinking wrong ?


Its not a winning play.

Your raise folds out all of his draws and gets called by a range that crushes you.
 
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ComplexPlaya

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Its not a winning play.

Your raise folds out all of his draws and gets called by a range that crushes you.

It sucks that I can't do the math on his draw combos that fold, maybe someone that can will help us. I'm not sure AT folds here tbh, and since it is 10nl not sure about his draws always folding, but even if they are:

If we fold here, it means we fold everything but sets, don't we become incredibly vulnerable to this type of player bluffing in pots that are unlikely to have hit our range? I really don't see any other way but aggression here to counter a bluffy player, calling can not work OOP
 
Stu_Ungar

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It sucks that I can't do the math on his draw combos that fold, maybe someone that can will help us. I'm not sure AT folds here tbh, and since it is 10nl not sure about his draws always folding, but even if they are:

If we fold here, it means we fold everything but sets, don't we become incredibly vulnerable to this type of player bluffing in pots that are unlikely to have hit our range? I really don't see any other way but aggression here to counter a bluffy player, calling can not work OOP

You have to realise that people dont bluff a great deal or get it in with weak draws all that much. 90% of the time when someone raises a flop bet its because they have a big made hand not because they think they can level us by raising a dry board as its more likely to be a set than a draw!

This is 10NL IF he were bluffing the flop, he is unlikely to doubel or tripple barrell as a bluff.

This is not to say it never happens but it just dosent happen enough for you to be able to do anything fancy to combat it. If he is BLUFFING this i.e. he has nothing rather than a guy who value raises AT (different mentality) then you are going to get tons of better chances to win his stack. If he is this bluffy he will at some point try and bluff you off the nuts so you should aim to fold more against him knowing that when you do hit you have huge implied odds.

But really, when he raises the flop we are likely beat. If we call then we should donk the turn, partly for value (we may have the best hand) bpartly for info, if he has nothing he folds if he has the nuts he may raise and if he has a margional hand he calls. Also its partly for pot control, we should not feel happy getting stacks in with pairs so if we donk 1/2 pot on the turn and river and dont get raised then we have built a pot in lign with the strength of our hand. If we get raised we must fold.

Dont assume that most players are doing anything other than raising big hands because 90% of the time, thats what they are doing.

If the board were wetter.. maybe a FD too then we could think about stacking with a pair because of the sheer number of draws out there, but this isnt the board for that.
 
Pokerstudent

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I think this range is more realistic. He reraises w/ QQ's+.

But the 1/2 donk bet on turn should work, provided he is not a skilled player and recognizes what you are doing.
 
Stu_Ungar

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I think this range is more realistic. He reraises w/ QQ's+.

But the 1/2 donk bet on turn should work, provided he is not a skilled player and recognizes what you are doing.

Its 10NL I dont expect anyone to be skilled.

QQ+ .. he has to flat QQ KK and AA preflop! He would normally 3bet


However even if he does flat QQ+ preflop, postflop we chop against his overpair range.

QQ we beat but AA we lose to and KK we chop so the fact that he could be doing this with an over pair shouldn't be the overriding factor in the decision because we have an EV of 0 against his over pair range

The sets obviously crush is and there are so few draws he could have that the only reason to even call the flop bet is incase he raise AT/KT/9T hoping to win there and then. Against any hand that raises our turn bet we are so far behind we have to fold.
 
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ComplexPlaya

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You have to realise that people dont bluff a great deal or get it in with weak draws all that much. 90% of the time when someone raises a flop bet its because they have a big made hand not because they think they can level us by raising a dry board as its more likely to be a set than a draw!

This is 10NL IF he were bluffing the flop, he is unlikely to doubel or tripple barrell as a bluff.

This is not to say it never happens but it just dosent happen enough for you to be able to do anything fancy to combat it. If he is BLUFFING this i.e. he has nothing rather than a guy who value raises AT (different mentality) then you are going to get tons of better chances to win his stack. If he is this bluffy he will at some point try and bluff you off the nuts so you should aim to fold more against him knowing that when you do hit you have huge implied odds.

But really, when he raises the flop we are likely beat. If we call then we should donk the turn, partly for value (we may have the best hand) bpartly for info, if he has nothing he folds if he has the nuts he may raise and if he has a margional hand he calls. Also its partly for pot control, we should not feel happy getting stacks in with pairs so if we donk 1/2 pot on the turn and river and dont get raised then we have built a pot in lign with the strength of our hand. If we get raised we must fold.

Dont assume that most players are doing anything other than raising big hands because 90% of the time, thats what they are doing.

If the board were wetter.. maybe a FD too then we could think about stacking with a pair because of the sheer number of draws out there, but this isnt the board for that.


You know what I do tend to not give villains enough credit in general, and suffering from it. Hell, I just lost a very similar hand for stacks last night with KK vs a set, on a 9 high board tho.

Would you say overpairs play like sets with most villains here though, so if it had been a 6 or 7 high board instead of 10 high on the flop shoving is the better option ?
 
Stu_Ungar

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You know what I do tend to not give villains enough credit in general, and suffering from it. Hell, I just lost a very similar hand for stacks last night with KK vs a set, on a 9 high board tho.

Would you say overpairs play like sets with most villains here though, so if it had been a 6 or 7 high board instead of 10 high on the flop shoving is the better option ?

If its a 6 high board then the board becomes more coordinated. Now his small PP not only make sets, they also make straight draws. His suited connectors now make more 2 pairs or pair + draw hands.

So although there are a few more Overpairs he could obver value in his range, there are also a ton more 2paor and straight hands which more than cancel out the possibility of him getting it in with 99+ rather than QQ+
 
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If its a 6 high board then the board becomes more coordinated. Now his small PP not only make sets, they also make straight draws. His suited connectors now make more 2 pairs or pair + draw hands.

So although there are a few more Overpairs he could obver value in his range, there are also a ton more 2paor and straight hands which more than cancel out the possibility of him getting it in with 99+ rather than QQ+

Hand today, I have AA, I 3-bet, guy flats. Flop KQx 2 clubs, awesome so I cbet, villain shoves. Thought about this thread, I of course called :)) he had K8 hearts. He was a 10/10 nit. This is 10NL.
Same villain, diff table, I open J6ss from CO, he calls from BB, flop J76cc, he checks I cbet he raises I 3bet he shoves AJ.

I mean, I got what you're saying, but there is so much spazzing going on I still think we're ahead of the range. Sure, he didn't shove but the pot wasn't built for that.

The way I recommended playing it - shoving - I got from Ed Miller in a couple of almost identical hands in one of his playing vids (50nl). I know you respect Ed Miller :D
 
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Stu_Ungar

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Hand today, I have AA, I 3-bet, guy flats. Flop KQx 2 clubs, awesome so I cbet, villain shoves. Thought about this thread, I of course called :)) he had K8 hearts. He was a 10/10 nit. This is 10NL.

I mean, I got what you're saying, but there is so much spazzing going on I still think we're ahead of the range. Sure, he didn't shove but the pot wasn't built for that.

The way I recommended playing it - shoving - I got from Ed Miller in a couple of almost identical hands in one of his playing vids (50nl). I know you respect Ed Miller :D

Do it 1000 times and then tell me nits generally call shoves with TPNK.
 
rileyl

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Whatever you do don't fold now...thats so terrible and shouldn't be mentioned!

I put 6 combos of sets in his range as I'm pretty sure this guy is probably 3Betting TT. A guy who is 26/21 is probably aggressive by nature so I'm assuming he will raise draws on this flop as well as random air seeing as he is thinking "There's no way he could hit anything on this flop...I can bluff him for sure!"

Even if he never bluffs with random crap he still has 4 combos of 76s in his range. (may have more if he flats 76o but I'm being safe) Also some of you are completely ignoring the fact that he can easily have AT here which is another 12 combos. (May even have KT in his range here who knows)

As you can see, I'm being fairly safe with my analysis and still getting way more combos of stuff we beat than not.

Basically its this simple...you have the near the top of your range in this spot so don't fold! You can't narrow villains range here to just sets that is just plain dumb! Either call, and check/call river if you think villain is bluffy. Or just get it in on turn if you weigh his range more towards tens. Either line is fine just DONT FOLD!
 
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