Originally Posted by Stu_Ungar
An overpair is fairly unlikely as the CO did not 3bet you would expect him to 3bet at least QQ+ so that leaves JJ
There are 9 combos of sets he could have and 6 for JJ so the range shifts to sets or air.
If you shove the turn you fold out the air and get called by the sets. It dosent matter if he calls / folds JJ he still wins with a range of sets and JJ more than he loses.
Skaplun's post made me rethink this, and even more in favor of shoving.
Here's why :
Villain is 27/21, he's IP so we can say he calls something about 10% of his hands here, maybe more maybe less but we can go with that. Adding a few pairs in pokerstove, 11% range is something like
Also, he's an aggro player. He will raise cbets on dry boards often enough, especially if he has a draw, even a backdoor. Happens to me all the time, and I do it all the time as well with air too against regs.
So we can include suited hearts from his range there, AT,kT, QT, I think JT and T9 (mostly suited) as well although they're not in the PS range. He may or may not call most of his 10's here, he probably will AT and KT, I'm pretty sure 66-99 fit well here too.
I don't know if he'll call stacks with a FD but even if he doesn't we're not letting him improve for free or hand him the pot.
So I think you'll agree the combos he raises flop and bets the turn with are way higher than sets and JJ, even if we're behind the range that calls our shove it's not by much and the FE more than compensates for that. We can't call OOP because we're clueless on the river, alot of cards will make for great bluff spots
If he was nitty or 17/14 folding here makes way more sense, as he is in LAG-ish territory I doubt it