$10 NLHE 6-max: KK, ace hits on the turn

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 28/22/3

Merge - $0.10 NL - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

CO: $3.50
BTN: $10.00
Hero (SB): $10.91
BB: $10.00
UTG: $11.74
MP: $9.82

Hero posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero has K:heart: K:diamond:

fold, MP raises to $0.30, fold, fold, Hero raises to $1.00, BB calls $0.90, MP calls $0.70

Flop: ($3.00, 3 players) 7:spade: 4:spade: 3:diamond:
Hero bets $2.25, BB calls $2.25, fold

Turn: ($7.50, 2 players) A:club:
Hero checks, BB bets $1.00, Hero calls $1.00

River: ($9.50, 2 players) T:diamond:
Hero checks, BB bets $4.00, fold

Flop sizing was made to shove the turn, but when the ace is c/f correct on this board?

Since the turn bet is so small, is a call okay? Comments anywhere are great.

He played this awfully odd..

I feel like A9, A10, AJ, AQ of spades, 65, 77, or very unlikely but possibly 10 10.

Don't see a bluff anywhere here, easy muck.

Gotta call turn bet, although most likely has you crushed.

When you called that turn it was clear you do not have the A.
If it was a blocker bet it worked great against you.
I really do not know what advise to give in this spot so i will w8 for others comments
I myself would had called the river because of the showdown value of my hand and if he really had an A with a weak kicker i would take a note for the future.
I do not think it cannot be a bluff. The size of the bet on the turn was so weak . But because you just called you do not know where you are on the river.

bet/fold is the nuts at small stakes.

baudib1 said:

bet/fold is the nuts at small stakes.

Click to expand...

The turn or the river? Or river as played?

3bet bigger preflop when OOP (I'd make it $1.20 here).

As played, I'm calling the river bet.

Only bluff I see here is missed flush draw and that would a donk bet on turn, and a good value bet bluff on river. Two unlikely plays. Any info on opponent?

How many Aces does he call the 3bet with (very few most likely). Then, if he does have an Ace why bet so small on the turn and river? He's either got a monster or a hand he's turning into a bluff. Monsters are hard to come by and I beat all bluffs. I call and only have to be right less than 25% of the time to be profitable.

I think he's going to have AXss a lot but as played I'm obv. not folding either.

What? Good value bet on the river? This is a terrible value bet on the river, lets just call and so be it, a good amount of the time we lose to Ax but either way, villain is terrible at getting value if he's playing Ax like this, he's probably capable of playing SDV hands we beat like this a % of the time so it's fine.

We cant fold here to small bets like that, we also get some cheap info on villain.

It's only a good value bet on the river because he has KK. Of course in general it's not a good value bet, but considering the fact he has KK and i'm putting him on Ax a lot, this really is one.

Clearly this guy is not some kind of value bet mastermind as he bet $1 on the turn like a donk. But against him here, with KK, an amount he would really consider calling is $4. And a lot of people are saying he should call, now if he has a winner, as I believe he does, he would be getting ultimate value from him on the river.

Regardless, I said it's a good value bet bluff, if it were to be a bluff, not a good value bet. With such a small bet if he were to be bluffing it really doesn't seem like one, and gets a good number of hands to fold.

All he knows is that we have a hand we liked preflop and cbet on the flop but probably didn't like as well after the Ace hit the turn. So if he has an Ace it's a value bet and if he has air it's a cheap bluff.

All that really matters is do we beat him at least 23% of the time? I think we do.

But is that how we are supposed to play all of our hands? I mean sure it's possible he could be bluffing but it'd be close around 23%, i'm almost just considering busted flush draws.

Regardless if you really think you're beat should you call anyway because it's a profitable enough hand if you beat him 23% of the time? Seriously wondering, and if so should you put him on a multitude of hand ranges and then pick out whether he would be bluffing around 1/4th of the time?

And isn't it $4 to call to win $13.50.

Therefore around 3.3 to 1

33% shouldn't be the calling range?

If so I would say busted flush draw, Ax, 10 10, 65, bad play of 77? Probably wouldn't be out of his range while he seems like a bit of a donk.

I'd say his range on the river is
sets (12 actual combos but I'd discount to maybe 6 due to bet sizing),
AXss (Say he calls the 3bet preflop with 5 of those (ATss-AQss,A5ss,A2ss),
A2s,A5s (included in his ss range so the remaining 2 combos)
That's 13 likely hands that beat us.
That means that even if the ONLY hand he plays like this that we beat is 55 (6 combos) calling is very profitable (we win 31% of the time). Add air, other pairs (66,88) and we're crushing.

I doubt you could build a realistic range even if you include every Ax hand possible that we wouldn't have the odds to call that river bet against.

-Phil Ivey27 said:

And isn't it $4 to call to win $13.50.

Therefore around 3.3 to 1

33% shouldn't be the calling range?

If so I would say busted flush draw, Ax, 10 10, 65, bad play of 77? Probably wouldn't be out of his range while he seems like a bit of a donk.

Click to expand...

3.3 to 1 is 1/4.3 or 23%

3.3 to 1 means 3.3 times we lose to every 1 time we win so it's 23% so pretty much he would need lets say 4 times more value combinations than bluffs for us to justify folding.

Anyways i do expect to lose here a good bit of the time but the info is great because we know if he's capable of bluffing when he bets small on turns, how he likes to bet for value i.e. under half pot on the river, plus i really do think when we call the turn bet and check out on the river we're looking really weak so he will think we missed the ace and bet some bluffs on the river.

I know if i was the in position to RSsurfer here, once he lets me know he's weak by calling the turn bet/checking the turn i'm always gonna be bluffing him on the river.

Ahhh I see. Well that makes sense. It seems the math is correct to make this call. But at the same time we couldn't possibly do all of that within the 30 second time limit they give you online.

I suppose if you were to do a quick assessment you could say that you beat pocket pair bluffs, and busted flush draw bluffs, but so far as pocket pairs are considered it really makes the $1 bet on the turn highly improbable. Then you lose to Ax, set combos, and 65. Therefore you beat around 40% of hands or so?

Acky I agree with the math, and information like this is very valuable. But I feel like $4 or 40BB is a little steep for this. Also considering he could just get out of the session 5 minutes later.

Yeah, in game I just know that I only need to be good less than 25% (I actually just divide $4 / $16 and know there will be $$ left over) of the time and his range would need to be almost exclusively better than my hand not to call. That's not the case since there are a couple of missed draws and I beat all his bluffs.