$10 NLHE 6-max: KK-A on the river

$10 NL HE 6-max: KK-A on the river

Villain - 19/12 and has folded to 12/15 (80%) 3bets over 489 hands

Absolute, $0.05/$0.10 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players

UTG: $18.97
MP: $6.03
CO: $13.90
BTN: $19.45
Hero (SB): $10.42
BB: $10

Pre-Flop: K K dealt to Hero (SB)
UTG raises to $0.35, 3 folds, Hero raises to $1.25, BB folds, UTG calls $0.90

Flop: ($2.60) 9 5 T (2 Players)
Hero bets $1.40, UTG calls $1.40

Turn: ($5.40) Q (2 Players)
Hero bets $2.90, UTG calls $2.90

River: ($11.20) A (2 Players)
Hero...

Depends on his post-flop stats, methinks. You need to be looking at Fold to C-Bet on Flop and Turn. AQ ain't in this guys range, certainly not by the turn. AK's a long shot. Your own stats at the table also come into account, I think. If you've been 3-betting like mad then he might not be so scared of you on the flop. Looks like you're pretty committed though, the most reasonable chance of him having an ace is him having bullets. Trouble is, he might be slowplaying a set. If you're ahead, you check, he checks, or you bet, he folds, no difference. If you're behind and you check, he goes all in and you dunno what to do, if you're behind and you push, obviously you're getting called. If he never seems to call down much (high FTCB on flop and turn, high AF/AFq), then he is perhaps slowplaying a PP that hit a set... By the same token, he could have JJ... 6 combos of JJ, 3 combos of QQ and TT and AA... 1 combo of KK... JJ seems the most likely given his actions and the 'combinatorics' or whatever they call it...

I think the bottom line is that you're pretty committed here. You beat 6 combos, get beat by 9 combos, and split with 1 combos, so you're behind his range, but only at a 3:2 ratio, while the pot is giving you 3:1. Check-call - if he has jacks and you have him beat, he'll likely be pushing on that river ace.

That's my analysis anyway, I'm not the most expert member here, so see what others think.

EDIT: Sorry I typed that while I was thinking it out, the first bit about flop/turn stats is pretty pointless, it's much more a question of his range at the end of the hand. My 2nd paragraph is a lot more relevant than the first, the first was me sort of thinking it through, lol.

It should read:Ace On The River (Barry Greenstein)

I think you are committed here too especially given the possiblities your opponent could have

I'd like bigger bets throughout (both pre and post). Basically by the time that Ace falls you want your decision to be easy because you've built the pot to the point that you can't fold (and neither can he). Honestly the way the hand played out I doubt you're good here very often but I likely check/call and hate myself for my poor bet sizing.

WVHillbilly said:

I'd like bigger bets throughout (both pre and post). Basically by the time that Ace falls you want your decision to be easy because you've built the pot to the point that you can't fold (and neither can he). Honestly the way the hand played out I doubt you're good here very often but I likely check/call and hate myself for my poor bet sizing.

Click to expand...

i tend to agree, on flop i would bet almost pot, and on the turn i would do the same, leaving me with very few $. the river i would ceck but if he goes all in i call. also if you bet close to pot on the flop, you are left with a little under 7 $ of the turn which is only a little above pot size so i would shove here and i would not see the river.

If he floats flop a lot AJs could be in his range.

A lot depends on your 3-bet history against him and his fold to flop c-bet.