$10 NLHE 6-max: JJ vs. shove on rag flop

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pyrotheassassin

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This hand came from a session I played last night and need some opinions.

Starting Stacks:
HJ - 4.07
Hero - 10.14
Button - 11.41

Hijack raises to 0.30, Hero 3-bets to $1 with JcJs, Button calls, and HJ folds

Flop: 6d 5c 4h (Pot: 2.45)

Hero leads for $1.50, Button shoves all-in ($10.41). Hero folds

Do you agree with this line? I don't have much information on the villian at this point, as he only sat down at the table about 15 hands previously. Any opinions are welcome, including discussions about any actions taken in the hand. Thanks again.
 
Beanfacekilla

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This hand came from a session I played last night and need some opinions.

Starting Stacks:
HJ - 4.07
Hero - 10.14
Button - 11.41

Hijack raises to 0.30, Hero 3-bets to $1 with JcJs, Button calls, and HJ folds

Flop: 6d 5c 4h (Pot: 2.45)

Hero leads for $1.50, Button shoves all-in ($10.41). Hero folds

Do you agree with this line? I don't have much information on the villian at this point, as he only sat down at the table about 15 hands previously. Any opinions are welcome, including discussions about any actions taken in the hand. Thanks again.


His cold call looks pretty strong. He's unknown to us at this point, give him credit. He prob has us beat. He does this with sets and overpairs, and perhaps 7x or made straight rarely. Any overpair you beat probably doesn't shove. We could argue calling, but I just don't think we're good enough of the time.

If we knew something about him, perhaps we could make a better read.
 
TimovieMan

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His preflop coldcall and flop shove is either a set or a bigger overpair, imo.
Good fold!
 
c9h13no3

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What the **** are you guys smoking? He's got 40 big blinds, and we have an over pair that beats 4 other overpairs. The SPR is like 1.5.

I hate this fold so hard.
 
TimovieMan

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What the **** are you guys smoking? He's got 40 big blinds, and we have an over pair that beats 4 other overpairs. The SPR is like 1.5.

I hate this fold so hard.
You might want to check again. ;)

What are YOU smoking??? :p
 
IPlay

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What the **** are you guys smoking? He's got 40 big blinds, and we have an over pair that beats 4 other overpairs. The SPR is like 1.5.

I hate this fold so hard.

It's 100bbs though, SPR is ~4.5. I believe hero is in the CO in this hand and that it is a 6 max table and that he just left the BB and SB out on purpose because they were irrelevant?

Did you have any reads at all? 15 hands should be enough to know if he is playing goofy/getting out of line. If we don't have a read by now, why? Because he hasn't played a hand or are we not paying attention? 100% Readless I probably don't fold. Button can make a bad call pre with hands like 76s, can have 77-1010 or even a piss poorly played AK etc... It's probably not a huge +EV call but it is +EV and I expect to be ahead here some of the time. We also get some pretty damn good info by calling on villains cold call range and how he plays what on a board like this. Folding probably isn't terrible though and for sure lower variance.
 
Aces2w1n

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Yeah definetly hard to put him on QQ+ or even AK since he didn't 3bet us pre.

plenty of combo's we beat ... If he flats there with low PP its bad cuz hijack could easily jam pre and he doesn't have the odds to setmine profitably.

So prolly he has medium PP a gutshot or open ender 77 at best... and worse 88-TT :)
 
Beanfacekilla

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What the **** are you guys smoking? He's got 40 big blinds, and we have an over pair that beats 4 other overpairs. The SPR is like 1.5.

I hate this fold so hard.


What are you talking about 40 BB?? Hero and V both started with full stacks.
 
c9h13no3

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You might want to check again. ;)

What are YOU smoking??? :p
Nevermind, it's the BTN who shoved, not the HJ >_<

Yeah, now it's probably a fold.

(I'd like to take this opportunity to say "please, use a hand converter")
 
Beanfacekilla

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Nevermind, it's the BTN who shoved, not the HJ >_<

Yeah, now it's probably a fold.

(I''d like to take this opportunity to say "please, use a hand converter")


Lol.
 
Samuel Lee

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Good fold!
I think he got scared of a potential straight with TT+.
You only beat one of those pairs, you have equal against one of them and lose against the other ones.
I don't think it is a bluff or a small over pair. Maybe set but he called your 3-bet preflop so mostly I put him on TT+.

Good fold again.
 
John A

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It's a call. I mean even if you put him on 66-AA it's a call. This is adding no AK or any kind of bluffs in his range at all. You're flipping to a slight dog depending on how you want to weight the ranges. I don't hate the fold, but mathematically it's not the correct play.
 
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pyrotheassassin

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Does anyone know of a hand converter that works with betonline? I haven't found any software that works with the website through research so far
 
John A

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Does anyone know of a hand converter that works with betonline? I haven't found any software that works with the website through research so far

You can also just auto export from drivehud. It actually has a cardschat export option for all hands you play. Makes it ubber easy:

http://drivehud.com
 
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YsoSerious

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villian cant exploit us i guess since we can have QQ,KK,AA on thsi spot and fold JJ would be ok
 
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unknown at 10nl? snipity snap call.. well im calling against an unknown at any stakes actually.. 10nl makes it easier.
 
Romario2223

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on this board he easy can have set or QQ+. Fold
 
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dontquit

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LOL at this post. Playing for dimes right? You guys put this villan on QQ or better or a set on that flop? No way. I insta call this boy. He flats you...then jams post flop. I think he has TT or lower and it was the perfect flop for his hand. He puts you on AK/AQ and jams for the win. Fold was WAY TOO TIGHT!
 
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pyrotheassassin

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Thank you all for the feedback. After further thought and discussion, I can see the merits of both plays (call or fold), but I strongly disagree with the primary justification for calling.

Most posters advocating calling are using the justification that this is 10NL and we are playing for dimes. The level you are playing is not an adequate reason to call off a stack. While I will admit that most 10NL players (myself included, that's why I am a member of the forum) are bad players, I will not accept that they are dumb, as all poker players deserve more respect than that until proven otherwise. Also, another thing to consider is that the Villian acts second, not first, postflop. Had they acted first, I feel a fold would have been too tight based on the information I had. Acting second, it's much closer.

In my experience, 10NL players make many mistakes, but they tend to be mistakes of passivity (checks when bets are better, calls when raises/folds are better), not aggression. Most players and games are passive, so my initial assumption about all unknown players at this level is they are passive. If you find a player being aggressive, they tend to be polarized: either a maniac who is splashing around a lot, or a nit with strong holdings. Because most players at this level are recreational, and hate to lose money (and hands), the aggressive players tend to be weighted toward the nittier side. Since the player was unknown, I would like to go through a quick rundown of player types, and see which ones I could beat based on the action.

Maniac: A call is justified here and will probably be best, as they could be bullying and their hand range is very wide. However, my opponent has been too quiet through the first 15 hands to be one, so we can rule this one out.

Good LAG: No way I am beating a good LAG, as they would read my 3-bet PF and c-bet as strong and would not be shoving a rag board trying to get me to fold AK, since 10NL players don't let that hand go on this board. Good LAGs shove for value in this spot, expecting to get called by worse. A bluff from this player would tend to be smaller, trying to look like a "keep 'em in" value bet. Think min-raise.

Bad LAG: It's possible a call would be good, as they aren't as skilled and tend to try to bully more, but not to the level of a maniac.

Good TAG: Not likely. A good TAG isn't shoving 7x with many bluffs. I could possibly cooler TT (which I don't think shoves here-most likely raises something that could extract value from worse hands). Also, good TAGs won't be shoving a full stack on the flop often.

TAGfish, Tight-Passive, Nit, Loose-Passive, Calling Station, Fish: No chance in hell! While we all consider these guys to be the bread and butter of money in poker, by definition, they tend to be passive and only make aggressive actions when they are certain they have the best hand. Some could argue these players will show up with TT-77 here, but I would expect these players to be afraid of me holding overcards and "sucking out" once all the chips are in the middle. Plus, because I 3-bet (putting AA-QQ in my range), these players shoving with those hands becomes more unlikely.

Now some may say that these players will call the PF raise with a wide range, including connectors like 54o and 75o, to which I say, yes you are right. But when 10NL players do this, they are typically playing fit-or-fold, not bluff 'em out. So, considering the action, which of these extra hands shove? I'm guessing 87-32, all of them +EV for Villian in this spot, since 76 and 43 are pair+OESD combos (13 outs twice) even though I am currently beating them. Fish will overplay draws, but on the flop, it can often be profitable to do so at 8+ outs if you get stacks in the middle, and if something is profitable for your opponent in a HU pot, the profit comes from you. The Villian possibly shoves some of the two-gappers (particularly 64, with 75 and 53 being possible as well).

So, Villian's shoving range (at widest) is QQ-44 (expect AA, KK, AK to shove PF), 87-32, 86-42, and at most AQ as a pure bluff (which I rarely expect at 10NL) for a total of 187 combos, broken down as follows:

Straights: 32 combos, my equity = ~0%, needs runner-runner
Sets: 9, equity = 8%
Two Pair: 24, equity = 8%
Overpair: 6, equity = 8%
Underpair: 24, equity = 92%
Pair+OESD: 48, equity = 52%
Pair+Gutshot: 24, equity = 66%
Bluff: 16, equity = 75%
Equal Pair: 1, equity = 50%

This gives a total equity against the widest possible shoving range of ~42% for JJ. pot odds = 11.59:7.41, remembering that Villian has me covered, so I need at least 40% equity. Mathematically, it's a thin edge that vanishes completely if Villian does not have the AQ combos in the range (Equity = 39% without AQ) and gets smaller as hands are removed from this range, starting with the weak pair gutshot combos. From this analysis, it is a close call at best with high variance to a fairly easy fold. I would also argue that, at 10NL, folding is most likely the exploitative play that saves you money and limits Villian's profit.

The big take-home here is that at 10NL, insta-calling this shove because Villian could have TT or lower AND puts you on AK/AQ will deplete a bankroll quickly and it could point to a leak in your game. Just a warning to be careful with that thought process because it is dangerous to cap your opponent's range to only hands you beat without the nuts.
 
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IPlay

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Pretty sure majority of the players that said it is a call beat 10NL pretty easily so I don't think we would deplete our bankrolls making bad calls but thanks for being condescending to people giving you advice. You need to work on your range assignments because I highly doubt villain is calling pre with all combos of straights and two pairs so before you low key insult better players for giving you advice make sure you know what you are talking about or you might make yourself look like an asshat.
 
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pyrotheassassin

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IPlay, your advice was sound and very helpful. You gave legitimate thought into why you would make the call. My post is not intended to be condescending towards anyone. I disagreed with those who say this is an insta-call (which you did not) just because it was 10NL. That logic just doesn't make sense, and based on advice you have provided to me on other posts, I am certain you would agree with the fact that the level you are playing is not a legitimate reason to stack off. Go back through and check some of the posts after yours to see what I mean by that.

I can respect that the Villian may not have all the two pair and straight combos in his range, but if we remove those, we also have to remove the pair+combos we have positive equity against and those bluffs. This removes 72 combos of positive equity and 59 combos of negative equity. If we remove those, we would still be looking at a (relatively) tight range of QQ-44, where a call looks better but is still very high variance. Your earlier post seemed to agree with this assessment.

I also think that someone would bet/call suited connectors, and eliminate those that missed to the flop bet, so I believe 87-54 would bet in this manner.

Range assignments are something that I struggle with, and are actually part of the reason I joined this forum, so I would welcome any help you can provide on that. What hands in this range do you think wouldn't be there? What range would you assign here, given the action. In order for the call to be breakeven, I need to beat 2 combos out of 5 in his range. While JJ has ~62% equity against QQ-44, I don't think that entire range plays this way, particularly TT-77, the portion I am beating. Your advice has been solid on other posts, so this is one area where if you can help, I would greatly appreciate it.
 
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pyrotheassassin

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Once again, I apologize for posting something that could be taken in a condescending manner. After re-reading my post, I see that I did use some inflammatory language and broke forum etiquette. Thanks to IPlay for pointing that out and making me consider this.
 
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