$10 NLHE 6-max: JJ vs Check-Raise on this board [6h 7d 9d]

Hello all, this is my first hand review post ever! (so please correct me if I am missing info or anything).

The vilain in MP position is a winning reg at this limit and always seems to have 3x buyin on all tables he is on.
I am wondering if my TURN fold with Overpair is the right move VS his check raise.

Should Ive check/call the TURN and RIVER instead of betting?
With my 2.21$ bet, does I am too commited to fold?

The only range I can think the vilain has is :
55, 66, 77, 88, 99, TT, KdQd, AdTd, A9

Im pretty sure he doesnt have AA, KK, QQ, AK since he would had re-raised me preflop, instead he just called.
Im also sure that he is not pure bluffing here, I never seen him bluff with a check raise.

Here is the hand:
==============================
MP: $10.00 (VPIP: 28.48, PFR: 22.15, 3Bet Preflop: 7.02, hands: 1,224)
CO: $7.68 (VPIP: 30.00, PFR: 7.14, 3Bet Preflop: 8.70, Hands: 71)
Hero (BTN): $9.25
SB: $8.60 (VPIP: 23.24, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 4.19, Hands: 584)
BB: $3.84 (VPIP: 24.13, PFR: 2.70, 3Bet Preflop: 2.04, Hands: 381)
UTG: $9.96 (VPIP: 43.75, PFR: 7.81, 3Bet Preflop: 3.33, Hands: 66)

SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Hero has Jh Js
fold, MP raises to $0.30, CO calls $0.30, Hero raises to $1.25, fold, fold, MP calls $0.95, fold

Flop : ($2.95, 2 players) 6h 7d 9d
MP checks, Hero bets $2.21, MP raises to $5.20, fold

MP wins $6.97
==============================

I think the range you posted is too narrow (as in, he likely has other hands in his range as well, even if he rarely bluffs - surely he sometimes does?). But, even with the range you stipulated, you're ahead. Folding is a huge mistake, if that's the range you're putting him on.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

21,863,769 games 5.326 secs 4,105,101 games/sec

Board: 6h 7d 9d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.101% 41.57% 00.54% 9087981 117009.50 { TT-55, AdTd, A9s, KdQd, A9o }
Hand 1: 57.899% 57.37% 00.54% 12542440 117011.50 { JhJs }

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Oh, what I didn't respond to - what should you do then? Call or shove? That seems to depend on how you think he'd play A9. If you think he folds A9/99 to a push, you call. If you think he'll call with A9, you shove. He won't fold sets or flush draws (I'm pretty sure) so it comes down to what he'll do with his straight draws.

I personally fold. At these stakes JJ in this spot is basically a flip especially vs a reg if you put in sets, slowplayed aces, and draw combinations (I can't imagine there's a lot of them in this spot floating a squeeze OOP). I'd err on the side of caution let it go and move to the next hand but would pay attention to his check raise frequency and what he's going to showdown with. If you think about it (unless you have a read that says otherwise) his most likely holding is a PP that was setmining.

Keep in mind that he raises preflop, gets called by CO and raised by Hero. He has a good reason to think this may be a threeway flop and, if not, that he gets to play in position against the aggressor. That widens his range a bit.

How is being in MP vs BT in position? This is why I think his most likely holding is a set mine pocket pair (unless I've seen a reason to think otherwise). The best possible scenario if didnt hit a set is 88.

Whoops, confused it with another hand from yesterday. I thought we were in the blinds.

I would call raise and jam blank turns. You can't lay down overpairs on this wet of a flop vs a reg or else you will be very unbalanced and only continuing with the top of your range and the reg can take advantage of that. MP also seems like he is quite the aggro reg too which makes this even more of a call.

What about a bluff catch line? Check/Calling the flop...

Im thinking about this :

If on the flop
and straight possible or flush possible
and the POT is over 20BB
and we have overpair
and the vilain still have more than 40BB
=
Check/Call

What do you think about this idea ?

Dont think that he has set here, he woould slow play it I think, but he could have A9 or TT, I would call and see smth on turn, if any diamond or A/KQ/, check/fold.

We are in position here guys so no check calling and you shouldn't be checking back JJ on this flop very often if ever. I also disagree that he would slow play a set on this flop(MAYBE sometimes) because it is just far too draw heavy and it is a 3 bet pot so Hero would have a hard time folding any overpairs he may hold.

IPlay said:

I would call raise and jam blank turns. You can't lay down overpairs on this wet of a flop vs a reg or else you will be very unbalanced and only continuing with the top of your range and the reg can take advantage of that. MP also seems like he is quite the aggro reg too which makes this even more of a call.

Click to expand...

This is probably the best advice in the longterm.

"I would call raise and jam blank turns.", I also think that is the best advice.

But what do you think about betting 33%pot or 50%pot on the flop instead of 75%POT bet?

Fishove said:

"I would call raise and jam blank turns.", I also think that is the best advice.

But what do you think about betting 33%pot or 50%pot on the flop instead of 75%POT bet?

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On a flop like this in a 3 bet pot a bet of around 60% pot is pretty standard to get value out of his whole calling range. FWIW, if this was a random fish that seemed very passive folding here would be kind of whatever but since it is against a reg that you see often you should call.

Against a solid winning reg I would fold. He is committing himself to this pot and is willing to get it all in.

Thanks guys for your comment I was sure to get 0 reply or maybe 1 in couple of months!

After a lot of thinking, I think ive just put myself into an hard decision for no reason with this hand by betting too big on the FLOP.

It is 100% clear that I needed to bet on the FLOP. Now the question is how much, and also did my 3bet size PREFLOP too? Example:

Preflop: 3bet to 1.05, vilain call : POT 2.30
FLOP: vilain check, bet 1.20, vilain 3bet 3.30 = easier call

What do you think of it?

I like your squeeze sizing in the hand but I do think your flop sizing is a little much. I think 1.85-2.10 into a pot of 2.95 on the flop is about right. You are not really worried about pricing out draws in this spot and the SPR is already small since it is a 3 bet pot. The 60-65% sizing sets up a very nice turn jam and that really is the goal.

Why wait for the turn to "jam"?

Really it's going to be a call no matter what card falls on the turn, your opponent is never checking the turn IMO.

atlantafalcons0 said:

your opponent is never checking the turn IMO.

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This is EXACTLY why we wait to get it in on the turn. We have position and he is betting almost always so we can actually fold on bad turns that make us dogs against his range instead of getting it in on the flop. This also allows villain to jam with low equity bluffs that he would fold to a flop jam(I doubt there is many but every edge counts) When we jam on the flop at this point he is almost never folding so WHY jam if we can make it too the turn for less?

atlantafalcons0 said:

Really it's going to be a call no matter what card falls on the turn

Click to expand...

I strongly disagree, we can fold on the turn when a 5, 10, 8, Diamond and probably an A comes since it would hit his potential bluffs with AdKd AdQd. This is ~40% of turn cards that we can pretty easily fold to. because on these turns, if we were ahead on the flop we are probably not ahead now. Also don't forget the times villain does check turn and allows us to get to the river for free(I don't think this will happen often but it will happen and once again, every edge counts)

IPlay said:

This is EXACTLY why we wait to get it in on the turn. We have position and he is betting almost always so we can actually fold on bad turns that make us dogs against his range instead of getting it in on the flop. This also allows villain to jam with low equity bluffs that he would fold to a flop jam(I doubt there is many but every edge counts) When we jam on the flop at this point he is almost never folding so WHY jam if we can make it too the turn for less?



I strongly disagree, we can fold on the turn when a 5, 10, 8, Diamond and probably an A comes since it would hit his potential bluffs with AdKd AdQd. This is ~40% of turn cards that we can pretty easily fold to. because on these turns, if we were ahead on the flop we are probably not ahead now. Also don't forget the times villain does check turn and allows us to get to the river for free(I don't think this will happen often but it will happen and once again, every edge counts)

Click to expand...

But the pot is already $13.35 after the flop?

Our opponent will only have $3.55 left?

After we call the flop raise we only have $2.8 left?

Nah, he's never folding on the flop to a jam. He's committing himself to the pot with the raise. He's never checking the turn meaning the money is going in anyway. If we fold on the turn getting 4.76:1 odds, why even consider calling the raise on the flop. Just fold to the raise.

Our decision on the hand is made on the flop, not on the turn IMO.

True, I did over look the stack sizes. The fact that we start this hand short and bet the flop so large does make this hand awkward when we get raised. I guess this hand is a lesson on topping up and bet sizing in 3 bet pots.

Yep good lesson, Ive juste modified my auto rebuy setting to top up when I lose 1BB. I will also lower my flop betting size with this type of hand/board, it will make my decisions a lot easier!