10NL JJ Hand Review
Hi Aces2w1n. I'll try and go through this hand in some detail.
Pre-flop: So, MP raises here. He seems like a pretty loose, very aggressive player. He can have a pretty wide raising range from MP, something like 22+, A9o+, A2s+, KTo+, K8s+, QTo+, Q9s+, JTo, J9s+, 65s+, T8s.
Now, the CO makes a standard sized 3-bet (3.5x), but his stats are interesting. You have some data on him, and it looks like he's a very loose, passive player. It doesn't look like he plays well, it looks like he calls in spots where he shouldn't. He also only 3-bets premium hands by the looks of it. The thing is, we don't have enough of a sample size to even take notice of his 3-bet stat. We need at least 100 hands before we even consider it. He does seem somewhat passive though, so I'd give him a range of QQ+, AK, KQs, ATs and A2s-A5s. We give him a few bluffs, as well as a pretty tight value range.
Now, it comes to us with JJ. Let's be clear, calling is a bad play in this spot. Firstly, it pretty much turns out hand face-up because most of the time when people call in these spots, it's a medium pocket pair or AQ. This allows our opponents to read us easily and play perfectly against us. Secondly, we're OOP against two players, one of which still has the chance to 4-bet, which would really suck for us. Thirdly, because we're OOP, we're pretty much going to have to fold to a bet on any unfavourable flop, due to A, K and Q high flops hitting our opponents range a lot. No, calling isn't an option.
I think against a fishy player, JJ is too strong to fold. If we had more data (and CO was 3.45 3-bet over say 200 hands), we could get away from this, but the sample just isn't big enough to suppose his range crushes us. I would suggest a raise, 4-betting this.
I notice some commenters have suggested a small 4-bet, and whilst that would usually be the optimal play, we must take into account our opponent's tendencies. He's a calling station, that much is obvious. He's likely to make bad calls for lots of cash, so let's give him a chance to do that and shove this. Just 4-bet jam, as OP has done, and he's likely to call with his entire range, a lot of which we beat (or flip against). Out of the 58 combos in the range I gave him, only 18 beat us. Any bluffs (A2s-A5s) will probably fold (although who knows against this type of player) so that's another 16 combos we win a small pot against. If he calls with the rest of his range we're usually on the right side of a coin flip. Plus, fish always have the potential to go completely nuts, there's a small chance he has absolutely nothing, is on tilt and will call anyway!
Think you played this perfectly. It's a really rough spot, and as I say, against a tighter player, or if we had a better sample on his 3-bet, I would probably muck this, but I think we can still get called by plenty of worse hands against a probable station. But 4-betting small ($2.90-3.10) also has some merit, although you can never 4-bet fold in this spot, so you'd have to call it off. You could also fold this, it'd be on the tight side, but at least you avoid a tricky spot so I don't mind that either. I don't particularly like calling in these spots, but it's not an awful play.
Basically, no option here is too bad.