$10 NLHE 6-max: Implied Odds... math help!

teh_colonel_saigon

teh_colonel_saigon

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I think I played this poorly. I have the hand, then the math.

3 handed. 100bb effective @ .05/.10

SB (Hero) with :10c4: :10d4:
BB (Villain)

BTN folds, Hero raises to .35, BB calls

Flop: :4h4: :qc4: :kh4: ... pot- 0.67

Hero checks, Villain checks

Turn: :4h4: :qc4: :kh4: :jd4: ... pot- 0.67

Hero checks, Villain bets .50, Hero calls

River :4h4: :qc4: :kh4: :jd4: :ad4: ... pot- 1.61

Hero bets .80, Villain calls.

---------------------------------
MathOn turn...OESD needed to win the hand, outs are 8/46. bet to call is .50 to win 1.17. How much more will we need?

8 / 46 = .50 / 1.17 + x

x = 1.70 ... we have to win this much more to break even, which is a river over bet.

He's rarely calling that, so is it just a turn fold? Do we shove the river anyway?
 
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Sidetracked

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I might be missing something, but I don't see the river card.
 
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gustav197poker

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It is a fold on the turn. You do not even reach 30% so you are far from your safe line.
I understand that you wanted to catch him but you have many implicit ones against you.
Maybe the hand ended in the flop in the face of a large increase, since I am still against several higher scales, which can harm me worse in the future.
 
Tenek26

Tenek26

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You got 8 outs on the turn, I don’t think you made a big mistake when you made the call. One could try to set a trap on the river, but I do not know if this is a good solution.
 
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nameless1537

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It’s an interesting dilemma. I think that how you play this hand will likely be influenced by the reads you have on the villain. If villain has been playing fishy, and loose on the calls, then an overbet could be called by a villain with a set or even 2 pairs, even with such a connected board. If the villain has shown a lot of aggression post flop, then setting a trap could also work by betting a little less and hope for a raise.

If villain has shown capacity to fold when he thinks he’s beat, even with a semi strong hand, then you are probably right... the math would appear to dictate that the call on the turn is a bit loose if you don’t think the villain will bite on the river bet.

Without reads or a hunch on the villain’s play, it seems that it’s more than likely the villain will folding on the river with such a connected board.

Side question though: what was your plan on the flop - check-call or check-fold? Did you consider a c-bet and if so, what stopped you? too many overcards? I’m often caught in this kind of dilemma with pocket pairs (with 1 or 2 overcards)... do I represent the range or just give up on the flop after showing some strength preflop?
 
teh_colonel_saigon

teh_colonel_saigon

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nameless1537 said:
It’s an interesting dilemma. I think that how you play this hand will likely be influenced by the reads you have on the villain. If villain has been playing fishy, and loose on the calls, then an overbet could be called by a villain with a set or even 2 pairs, even with such a connected board. If the villain has shown a lot of aggression post flop, then setting a trap could also work by betting a little less and hope for a raise.

If villain has shown capacity to fold when he thinks he’s beat, even with a semi strong hand, then you are probably right... the math would appear to dictate that the call on the turn is a bit loose if you don’t think the villain will bite on the river bet.

Without reads or a hunch on the villain’s play, it seems that it’s more than likely the villain will folding on the river with such a connected board.

Side question though: what was your plan on the flop - check-call or check-fold? Did you consider a c-bet and if so, what stopped you? too many overcards? I’m often caught in this kind of dilemma with pocket pairs (with 1 or 2 overcards)... do I represent the range or just give up on the flop after showing some strength preflop?
Click to expand...

My flop plan was probably to check-fold. Villain is a smart and tricky player, who might prefer a flat cal Blind v blind than a 3-bet. I don't think a bet here gets us much value, as he could call with so much...

AQ, AJ, KQ, KJ, QJ are all possible. Unlikely he will fold to a flop bet, and if we bet out we will have to fold to a raise.

When he checks behind it looks like a good place to bet out, but this guy is a reg and could be trapping, checking 2 pair behind. Plus, although the J gives us outs, it helps him more than us.

...too passive?
 
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