$10 NLHE 6-max: Can i fold a Full House ?

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 25/20/3

$0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 3 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $11.82 (118.2 bb)
Hero (BB): $16.50 (165 bb)
BTN: $5.16 (51.6 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9 9
BTN folds, SB raises to $0.30, Hero calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.60) 3 3 3 (2 players)
SB bets $0.48, Hero calls $0.48

Turn: ($1.56) 4 (2 players)
SB bets $1.24, Hero calls $1.24

River: ($4.04) J (2 players)
SB bets $3.50, Hero ?

Villain is a Reg with a sample of 623 hands. In this session he played very straight forward because the table was fishy. This hand was about 2nd or 3rd after the table broke down to 3 players.

I chose to defend the BB with 99. Calling or raising are fine i think in this spot. 99 is at the top of my defending range, it keeps the pot small as we are somewhat deeper, 99 have SD value built into them, and if i 3bet he is most likely to fold his worse hands and 4bet his better hands and some bluffs which still puts me in a very bad situation.

I guess flop is standard. He cbets around 60% and he knows i can get sticky with a lot of hands here.

Turn cbet is what worries me. He is polarizing his range here. I think he is going to check all his Ax here. So its either a full house/quads or nothing.
One thing that also worries me is his bet size. He is betting around 80% pot.
It could be that he is trying to get me away from Ax or that he is trying to build the pot.

J on the river is kind of irrelevant. It shouldnt be in his range too much. If i had him beat on the turn i most likely have him beat on the river. He could catch up with something like KJ, QJ, JT, J9s or J8s. His is aggresive. He knows i can get here with Ax. He knows when he bets big on this board it looks like a bluff and he knows i can make light calls here with that in mind.
His WTSD is 21 and W$SD is 57. Also he played this session very straight forward as i said.

you're flipping against his pairs , ahead of his Ax , broadways that hit the flush, i'm calling but expecting to lose about 50% of the time

Raising pre

Raising turn and then checking back riv... we can snap his shoves cuz he will have Axs a lot n spaz out

Ap folding river

Keith_MM said:

you're flipping against his pairs , ahead of his Ax , broadways that hit the flush, i'm calling but expecting to lose about 50% of the time

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I think if i am folding 99 here i am folding too much. I am at the top of my range here i mean the only better hands that i can have here given my pre and post flop line are AJ and A3s. Then again he really shouldnt have many bluffs here.
I did end up making the fold though.

Aces2w1n said:

Raising pre

Raising turn and then checking back riv... we can snap his shoves cuz he will have Axs a lot n spaz out

Ap folding river

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Raising turn just looks very strong and i am almost never bluffing when i raise turn. I mean what hands can u throw in as a bluff to balance against these kind of opponents on this board ? Maybe some blocker combos like KQ, AT etc. but still if i were to bluff raise i would do so on the flop and follow up on the turn and then make my decision on the river depending on the runout.
When i raise turn and get 3bet shoved on my hand doesnt look pretty at all.
I would much rather go for cheap showdown at this point and keep all his bluffs in.
That said i should have called on the river but i ended up folding.

razzor94 said:

Raising turn just looks very strong and i am almost never bluffing when i raise turn. I mean what hands can u throw in as a bluff to balance against these kind of opponents on this board ? Maybe some blocker combos like KQ, AT etc. but still if i were to bluff raise i would do so on the flop and follow up on the turn and then make my decision on the river depending on the runout.
When i raise turn and get 3bet shoved on my hand doesnt look pretty at all.
I would much rather go for cheap showdown at this point and keep all his bluffs in.
That said i should have called on the river but i ended up folding.

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No but when he 3bet shoves u he is now polarized and he now has bluffing in his range

What is villains AFq? How often is he barreling turn? Kind of need slightly more info because this hand is kind of right on the fence but I do lean towards calling. I would fold against the right kind of NIT though. Don't think we can go around capping our range against regs and then folding the top of it.