$10 NLHE 6-max: How to play TPGK as PFR. 2/3Barrel?

The villain was new to the table, about 15 hands in and was at about 20/11.
Any thoughts on what his hand/range is during this hand?
Also what is a good move for the River after 2barreling. I find 3barreling with no info on a player hard to do.
I had a lot of different things going through my mind as I played this hand and I'm curious to see how you guys would have played it.


Merge Network $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players

CO: $9.46
BTN: $10.92
SB: $24.21
BB: $10.00
UTG: $6.21
Hero (MP): $18.21

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is MP with J A
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.30, 1 fold, BTN calls $0.30, 2 folds

Flop: ($0.75) A 7 2 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.50, BTN calls $0.50

Turn: ($1.75) 9 (2 players)
Hero bets $1.16, BTN calls $1.16

River: ($4.07) Q (2 players)
Hero bets $2.71

I think bet/folding river here is fine, and your sizing is OK (maybe a bit smaller on river). You could also check/fold river. The only thing I wouldn't be doing here is check/calling (unless he minbets or something stupid obv).

Would have played it the same.

Thanks for the replies,
Here was the result. He left after about 10 more hands.
River: ($4.07) Q (2 players)
Hero bets $2.71, BTN calls $2.71

Final Pot: $9.49
BTN shows Q A (Two Pair Aces and Queens)
Hero shows J A
BTN wins $9.02
(Rake: $0.47)

I guess I could break down the questions I have like this:

1. What kind of notes, if any, would you make for this player on the fly? Having not 3bet from IP with AQo and just calling me down with TP seems like a tight/passive play.
2. Does he fold the river if that Q doesn't peel off?
3. I was trying to think about what worse hands call and what better hands fold and I guess I put myself pretty far ahead based on the lack of aggression throughout the hand to the point to where I thought I might be facing a strong FD or mid PP's which meant value town (in my eyes with no math involved)

Sometimes you run into a better hand.

B/F, B/F, B/F

Nh Imo

I bet the turn smaller. This is a horrible card and we ought to slow down the growth of this pot. Flush draws beat us but even worse A9 has caught up, AT is our only solid 3street hand now and even that is questionable. I bet tiny on the river or check/fold we are making an assumption villain is a fish as he's more or less unknown, a fair assumption but an assumption none the less as we need aces with weak kickers to call both pre and on the river. Even then it isn't massively +EV as a range this wide will bring many more flushes into villains range along with A2 and A7.

I check/fold river.

I think c/f river is good

At 10nl, 20/11 doesn't lead me to believe this guy can't call a third barrel with his worse hands. Check/fold isn't bad, but I'm not pussing out of 3 streets of value because we're beaten by like only AQ here.

It's pretty close I think given our read is pretty bad. IDK, I feel nitty reading these hand histories because it's so obvious people only post hands they lose.

Would an average player that's either hit a 2 pair or flush by the turn here just call a small turn bet as a slow play? Or should we expect to see someone go balls deep into their stack when they see a weak bet on the turn? Thats what I would hope for really, but it doesn't always seem to be the case.
It makes a lot of sense that an Ax hand has caught up and that the we only beat 6/11 Ax hands (excluding AA and AJ) and lose to the slowplayed flush which could be the nut flush. Also the random set that hit kills me here, but I'm still oblivious as to how not to pay off sets without being nitty.

I had someone turn up with 6's on a very similar line the other night and I was expecting two see another two pair. I had a pretty loose image that night though so I don't blame the guy for not believing me

I know its not an exact science, but I'm trying to develop a good standard line here for nonregs.

B/f all streets for value when you have good/non-nut hands as a standard, unless the board runout is ridiculous, in which case a lot of times you should still b/f.

Stoober said:

It makes a lot of sense that an Ax hand has caught up and that the we only beat 6/11 Ax hands (excluding AA and AJ) and lose to the slowplayed flush which could be the nut flush.

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the cards on the board make it more likely for someone to be holding AT/A8 than A9/A7, DUCY?

I'd discount AK quite a bit, here I give him just 4 combos of AKo:


Board: Ah 7d 2d 9d Qs
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 54.878% 51.22% 03.66% 42 3.00 { AsJd }
Hand 1: 45.122% 41.46% 03.66% 34 3.00 { AQs-A2s, AcKd, AcKh, AcKs, AdKc, AQo-A2o }

baudib1 said:

the cards on the board make it more likely for someone to be holding AT/A8 than A9/A7, DUCY?

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I'm assuming you mean because since there's one on the board there's less in chance of one being in play.
Makes sense. And I like the use of poker stove
Any thoughts on this?

Stoober said:

Would an average player that's either hit a 2 pair or flush by the turn here just call a small turn bet as a slow play? Or should we expect to see someone go balls deep into their stack when they see a weak bet on the turn?

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Obviously at these stakes there will be some people that never show aggression even with the nuts, but I think they aren't the majority.

Usually even passive players will raise sets here unless they're uber passive/fishy, but against those types who will also call down with A3o the river is a big fat value bet.

I think this spot is pretty close because this guy is probably not that type, he's probably just a bad reg. Bad regs are for sure raising 2 pair + on the flop and generally 3-betting AQ/AK pre.

Against this type we can eliminate most bad offsuit Aces from his range but almost completely eliminate sets, AK, most flushes. So his range is actually going to be pretty narrow, it really depends on how he'd play AQ and flushes really, unless he has exactly A9s.

Don't bet the river here. You aren't getting called by worse very often and are just value betting for a better hand.

baudib1 said:

It's pretty close I think given our read is pretty bad. IDK, I feel nitty reading these hand histories because it's so obvious people only post hands they lose.

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I feel good that I am only posting hands that I win for analysis. I like being different.

BlackRain79 said:

Don't bet the river here. You aren't getting called by worse very often and are just value betting for a better hand.

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You should probably value-bet thinner.

jordanbillie said:

I feel good that I am only posting hands that I win for analysis. I like being different.

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I usually only post hands I win, too.

jordanbillie said:

I feel good that I am only posting hands that I win for analysis. I like being different.

Click to expand...

I usually only post hands I win, too.

baudib1 said:

Board: Ah 7d 2d 9d Qs
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 54.878% 51.22% 03.66% 42 3.00 { AsJd }
Hand 1: 45.122% 41.46% 03.66% 34 3.00 { AQs-A2s, AcKd, AcKh, AcKs, AdKc, AQo-A2o }

Click to expand...

Wow I didn't think our equity would be this bad.
A mere 55% equity when we have included no flushes, no sets and not remotely discounted the likes of A2o shows this bet is defo -EV

He has no flushes or sets and it also doesn't include a gazillion other hands he could be playing in retarded fashion, such as 7x, 54, 88-KK. But that wasn't the point of the stove anyway and wasn't even an off-the-cuff attempt at a range, but go ahead and pretend like it was.

Best case scenario/Fishy Range


Board: Ah 7d 2d 9d Qs
Dead:

Hand 0: 54.545% { 99, 77, 22, AdKd, AQs-A2s, KdQd, KdJd, KdTd, Kd9d, QdJd, QdTd, Qd9d, JdTd, Jd9d, Td9d, Td8d, 9d8d, 9d7d, 8d7d, 8d6d, 7d6d, 7d5d, 6d5d, 6d4d, 5d4d, 5d3d, AdKc, AdKh, AsKd, AQo-A2o }
Hand 1: 45.455% 42.42% 03.03% 42 3.00 { AsJd }


Worst case scenario/Nitty Range

Board: Ah 7d 2d 9d Qs
Dead:

Hand 0: 98.214% { QQ, 99, 77, 22, AJs+, KdQd, AQo+ }
Hand 1: 01.786% { AsJd }


Our equity lies somewhere between 1.8% and 45%. "Value betting" here loses us money. Honestly don't think this is remotely arguable as I can't see how you can make even the best case scenario range profitable.

baudib1 said:

He has no flushes or sets and it also doesn't include a gazillion other hands he could be playing in retarded fashion, such as 7x, 54, 88-KK. But that wasn't the point of the stove anyway and wasn't even an off-the-cuff attempt at a range, but go ahead and pretend like it was.

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Your range including every Ax hand was genuinely surprising how poor our equity was. I assumed the one pair hands would out number the two pair hands +AQ, still pretty puzzled as to how they don't tbh.

But ye I checked to see if your range did indeed add up to 55% and then when it did added the flushes and sets. I didn't mean any offence.