$10 NLHE 6-max: How many percent of the time should I fold in this situation?

G

gochillgo

Enthusiast
Silver Level
Joined
May 24, 2020
Total posts
38
Chips
0
Flopped a set though board was 1 suited. Bet the flop, checked the turn but now becomes 4 cards to a suit. Villain fires at River, so the question is should I fold to this situation 100% of the time?



888Poker Snap, Hold'em No Limit - $0.05/$0.10 - 6 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

UTG: $10.00 (100 bb)
MP: $13.61 (136 bb)
CO: $10.09 (101 bb)
BU: $3.76 (38 bb)
SB: $18.03 (180 bb)
BB (Hero): $10.00 (100 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.15) Hero is BB with 8 8
3 players fold, BTN raises to $0.20, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.10

Flop: ($0.45) K 8 4 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $0.22, Hero calls $0.22

Turn: ($0.89) 9 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

River: ($0.89) 6 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $0.44, BB (Hero) folds

Total pot: $0.89 (Rake: $0.04)
BU wins $0.85
 
Aballinamion

Aballinamion

Sleeping with the Dark Lady of the Sith
Loyaler
Joined
Dec 4, 2017
Total posts
2,517
Awards
3
BR
Chips
331
Flopped a set though board was 1 suited. Bet the flop, checked the turn but now becomes 4 cards to a suit. Villain fires at River, so the question is should I fold to this situation 100% of the time?



888Poker Snap, Hold'em No Limit - $0.05/$0.10 - 6 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

UTG: $10.00 (100 bb)
MP: $13.61 (136 bb)
CO: $10.09 (101 bb)
BU: $3.76 (38 bb)
SB: $18.03 (180 bb)
BB (Hero): $10.00 (100 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.15) Hero is BB with 8 8
3 players fold, BTN raises to $0.20, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.10

Flop: ($0.45) K 8 4 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $0.22, Hero calls $0.22

Turn: ($0.89) 9 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

River: ($0.89) 6 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $0.44, BB (Hero) folds

Total pot: $0.89 (Rake: $0.04)
BU wins $0.85

Considering dynamic positions, in this situations the player in the BTN can have a lot of whiffed and busted hands, Top Pair with No Kicker, Second Pair Top Kicker, you name it! :D

Many players are going to automatically c-bet on the flop when they raise from the BTN and BB calls, no matter what type of board and equity. In this scenario we can be 3-betting for value, our pocket pairs, specially the mid ones such as 77, 88 and 99, so postflop we can have initiative.

On the flop, again, we could be raising our set for protection, since we don't expect many KK on Villain's ranges. A club turn will not be good for us, but the call is not the end of the world as well.

Now, when it completes a flush OTT and Villain checks in position it seems very much that it doesn't have the flush: now the flushes should be betting for protection, because if it double a pair OTR it will not be good for the flush, and ever since BB/Hero had called OTF it can have both flushes, sets and two pair on its range.
So, after checking the turn we assume that Villain/BTN isn't with a great holding and it is trying to control the pot.

On the river I believe that raising our sets and two pair and even some Top Pairs is a big, huge, giant mistake, because we are only getting paid by the flushes, most of times.
Folding, nevertheless, is also a mistake, but a smaller one (we lose less, but we are holding ourselves from winning an interesting pot by folding)
However, given the sizing used for Villain (1/2 pot) we have plenty of odds to be calling down with TPTK, TP2K, and any Two Pair and Set.
The reason for this call is that BTN can be bluffing a lot in this scenario, and we avoid to be bluffed. Second, BTN/Villain can display hands like K8, K9, K6, 98, 86, 64, 44, 66 and (rare), 99.

Regards;

Carlos 'Aballinamion' Barbosa
 
teh_colonel_saigon

teh_colonel_saigon

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 3, 2013
Total posts
382
Chips
0
Considering dynamic positions, in this situations the player in the BTN can have a lot of whiffed and busted hands, Top Pair with No Kicker, Second Pair Top Kicker, you name it! :D

Many players are going to automatically c-bet on the flop when they raise from the BTN and BB calls, no matter what type of board and equity. In this scenario we can be 3-betting for value, our pocket pairs, specially the mid ones such as 77, 88 and 99, so postflop we can have initiative.

...
Carlos 'Aballinamion' Barbosa

You think we should 3bet medium pairs vs BTN? What is out calling range then? Just curious on your thoughts :)


I would play it same as you, but on the flop I'm raising this fool! If he has a pair he likes, let's get money in while we can to avoid bad run outs. This will also stop V from stabbing with weak flushes later on so we can realize our equity vs his pairs. We will have more flopped flushes that he does.

If he 3bets our raise we are going all in here especially since V is short stacked. As if he folds, well f#*k that guy anyway! :mad:

No but TBH if he folds, then we weren't going to get much value out of him anyway. Only way I'd flat call is if this guy will bluff off a FD to me.

---
As played, you can go either way on the river. He wither has a K, or he has a decent flush. You only have to be right 1/4 times... I wouldn't be surprised to call and find this guy with the :jc4: but no matter- At 10nl I think you can call. He would have KT, 89... 66 even... Well, Carlos gave you the list!
 
Folding in Poker
Top