$10 NLHE 6-max: Herocall this river in 3b pot?

JCgrind

JCgrind

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only 86 hands on villain, hes 32/19. awkwardly enough his button raise first is only 13%, but his PFR for button is 20% so i feel like i have a bit of a sampling error. 0% f3b over 4 samples. aggF 2.3 with infinite river aggression (35% flop, 33% turn, 67% river). fold to Cbet 50% in 3b pots, 43% OTF and 33% OTT overall, so hes fairly sticky.

Cant be sure what my stats were like for that table, but my 3b vs steal in BB is 8%, overall 3b 6% from BB, Cbet after 3bing 75%

flat/flat/overbet shove feels like a flush draw to me. i cant see him playing a Q like this, and hes 4b 1/3 times so i can be relatively sure that he doesnt have AA/KK/QQ despite small sample imo. i guessss he could have flopped/turned a set but would he really bet it like that OTR considering i checked?

seems like a snap OTR to me but curious as to what others think.
cheers

poker stars $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 1874553
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

MP: $18.29
CO: $14.60
BTN: $13.90
SB: $5.45
Hero (BB): $13.78
UTG: $17.32

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is BB with T :spade: T :heart:
3 folds, BTN raises to $0.20, 1 fold, Hero raises to $1, BTN calls $0.80

Flop: ($2.05) 2 :diamond: 4 :spade: Q :diamond: (2 players)
Hero bets $1.07, BTN calls $1.07

Turn: ($4.19) 7 :club: (2 players)
Hero bets $2.20, BTN calls $2.20

River: ($8.59) 2 :spade: (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $9.63 all in, Hero ?????

we both have pretty much the same stack so ESS ~135BBs. so i have to call ~the full overbet
 
acky100

acky100

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I don't think we can think of it as much as an over bet but more like a pot sized bet if you get me...

Tricky cause i know what you mean that most people aren't going to value bet their Qx here as good as they SHOULD. I mean a lot of them will check back things like QJ and stuff im sure just because they worry about you having AA or something.

I could go both ways here, it looks like a flush draw but it could also be a Qx hand and he has quite a lot of them here, but its 10nl and i don't know if the average villain would shove Qx here instead of betting half pot or even checking. Its really hard to get to the river with a hand that would bet all in here that isn't anything other than Qx or a busted flush draw. Because we think he is pretty tight on the button i'm going to say it's probably a fold, he can just have too much Qx compared to the number of FD's, so even if it worked this time and he had a FD im not sure long term at these stakes people will bluff shove missed draws enough without showing up with Qx too. Even if they shove Qx and missed draws i don't think you could ever call the shove profitably with your "bluff catcher" because he's essentially giving you 2:1 meaning that he can have 1/3 bluffs without you exploiting that at all and when you think about how much Qx there is AQ,KQ,QJs,QTs there is like 40 combo's of Qx there and he's probably always defending them if he doesnt fold to 3bets so vs other guys it could be wider too... and for FD's he can afford to bluff 1/3 of them, which he probably doesn't even have 13 combo's of them in his range if that makes sense? e.g. AJs = 1 combo here ATs, KJs, KTs, maybe if he defends a lot of Ax suited we can get the number closer to 10 combo's but you see, it's not looking like an easy way for us to bluff catch.

Basically, if he is capable of betting Qx here when you check, which i think he definitely should do, but a lot won't, or a lot won't shove with it, then i think its a fold.

If you have a read that he never bets his Qx like this or something (you've seen him check back QJo here or something) then i like the snap call.

sorry for the essay
 
JCgrind

JCgrind

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acky100 said:
I don't think we can think of it as much as an over bet but more like a pot sized bet if you get me...

Tricky cause i know what you mean that most people aren't going to value bet their Qx here as good as they SHOULD. I mean a lot of them will check back things like QJ and stuff im sure just because they worry about you having AA or something.

I could go both ways here, it looks like a flush draw but it could also be a Qx hand and he has quite a lot of them here, but its 10nl and i don't know if the average villain would shove Qx here instead of betting half pot or even checking. Its really hard to get to the river with a hand that would bet all in here that isn't anything other than Qx or a busted flush draw. Because we think he is pretty tight on the button i'm going to say it's probably a fold, he can just have too much Qx compared to the number of FD's, so even if it worked this time and he had a FD im not sure long term at these stakes people will bluff shove missed draws enough without showing up with Qx too. Even if they shove Qx and missed draws i don't think you could ever call the shove profitably with your "bluff catcher" because he's essentially giving you 2:1 meaning that he can have 1/3 bluffs without you exploiting that at all and when you think about how much Qx there is AQ,KQ,QJs,QTs there is like 40 combo's of Qx there and he's probably always defending them if he doesnt fold to 3bets so vs other guys it could be wider too... and for FD's he can afford to bluff 1/3 of them, which he probably doesn't even have 13 combo's of them in his range if that makes sense? e.g. AJs = 1 combo here ATs, KJs, KTs, maybe if he defends a lot of Ax suited we can get the number closer to 10 combo's but you see, it's not looking like an easy way for us to bluff catch.

Basically, if he is capable of betting Qx here when you check, which i think he definitely should do, but a lot won't, or a lot won't shove with it, then i think its a fold.

If you have a read that he never bets his Qx like this or something (you've seen him check back QJo here or something) then i like the snap call.

sorry for the essay
Click to expand...

lol yeah PSB my bad. i dunno man its a weird spot for 10NL, like you said you dont get too many bluff shoves, but you also dont get people valuebetting Qx here much at all, like AQ is the only hand that will, and even then only sometimes. TBH if he half potted id happily fold.
i just literally cant see any hand that valuebets like this. like you say, theres a ton of Qx in his range vs busted FDs but ye villains arent smart enough to value bet Qx here imo unless AQ but thats still rare. a few times villain shows up with weird underPPs like 88 here turned into a bluff but ye its just such an awkwardly uncommon move for any vil to ship a river here at 10
 
S

swingro

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I do not know. I experienced it 50/50 . Bluffs and value bets.
There is a weak draw here that could tell us he could be bluffing but still you need to see him do this at least twice.
As the board is i intend to say he called your 3-bet and hit his set because of his preflop raise. I saw a lot of players doing this with small pp because they hope to setmine for few chips. I would not be surprised if he has quads of deuces. Sometimes the dumbest moves gives you the cooler of the day.
 
acky100

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^ if its 50/50 bluffs and value bets then you surely always call here?

I think the call is fine in a vacuum jc, obviously nice to know how he vbets tp here but i doubt it's gonna affect your bottom line if you call, not worried about sets theyre hard to make. He opened on the btn so the raise size isnt indicative of a small pair it might just be his standard. I also rarely expect to see 88 turned into a bluff here by regs, thats just dumb, fish do it sometimes though yeh.
 
JCgrind

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look. heres the same spot again. obv im a huge fan of hero calling, and an even bigger fan of typing "OWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWNED" in the chatbox when i do it.

perfect example of why i think hand in the OP is a herocall


Poker Stars $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em $0.02 Ante - 6 players - View hand 1874802
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

BB: $6.18
UTG: $29.40
MP: $2.78
CO: $8.32
BTN: $25.00
Hero (SB): $28.29

Pre Flop: ($0.27) Hero is SB with A :club: T :club:
UTG raises to $0.25, 3 folds, Hero raises to $0.90, 1 fold, UTG calls $0.65

Flop: ($2.02) 8 :club: Q :club: 3 :heart: (2 players)
Hero bets $1.20, UTG calls $1.20

Turn: ($4.42) 3 :spade: (2 players)
Hero bets $2.60, UTG calls $2.60

River: ($9.62) 8 :spade: (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $8.50, Hero calls $8.50

Final Pot: $26.62
UTG shows J :spade: T :spade: (two pair, Eights and Threes)
Hero shows A :club: T :club: (two pair, Eights and Threes - Ace kicker)
Hero wins $25.42
(Rake: $1.20)


people are just to dumb to Vbet Qx in those spots. this hand is totes going in my thread for bragging rights lol
 
JCgrind

JCgrind

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fwiw villain in OP has 53 for the OESD lmfao. just wanted to know if its generally an ok call
 
acky100

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nh if you think he wont bet KQ and AQ there? feels so pro making hero calls
 
JCgrind

JCgrind

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acky100 said:
nh if you think he wont bet KQ and AQ there? feels so pro making hero calls
Click to expand...

if he does he doesnt ever pot it imo... well maybe he will now hahaha

feel soooooooooo pro, esp while 18 tabling
 
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