$10 NLHE 6-max: Hero call on the river with 99?

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Xmaster

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888 Poker - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 107.1 BB (VPIP: 35.29, PFR: 29.41, 3Bet Preflop: 14.29, hands: 18)
Hero (BB): 127 BB
UTG: 31.3 BB (VPIP: 23.70, PFR: 18.48, 3Bet Preflop: 9.86, Hands: 217)
CO: 102.5 BB (VPIP: 31.11, PFR: 27.78, 3Bet Preflop: 12.00, Hands: 93)
BTN: 98.5 BB (VPIP: 19.05, PFR: 9.52, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 23)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 9:spade: 9:diamond:

fold, CO raises to 2.5 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 1.5 BB

Flop: (5.5 BB, 2 players) 2:heart: 5:heart: T:spade:
Hero checks, CO bets 3.5 BB, Hero calls 3.5 BB

Turn: (12.5 BB, 2 players) 4:heart:
Hero checks, CO bets 8.5 BB, Hero calls 8.5 BB

River: (29.5 BB, 2 players) A:diamond:
Hero checks, CO bets 17.5 BB, Hero calls 17.5 BB

I somehow felt, that his range is pretty polarized after the tripple barrel. Would you have played different? Thank you guys! :)
 
Aces2w1n

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3bet for value against this guy would be good as well.

im folding river
 
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seventhsense

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We really don't need to 3 bet there. Fold the turn when he bets. People are rarely triple barrelling at this level.
 
Aces2w1n

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i beg to differ ... its important we control the hand early against a weaker player.

fold equity increases so we can easily defend the hand easier and get value from broadway hands before they hit ... villain can do the mistake to float us and then they fold when miss turn.

99 is a good hand but best played aggressive oop... we can setmine but generally oop we dont get paid off but 99 is strong enough we dont need a set to make money
 
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Maybe I have to add: Most of the times i 3bet 99 in the bb vs co. So I totally agree with Aces2w1n. But: I'm not a huge fan of always playing the same way. I also want to be better in spots, where I'm out of my usual thinking. That's why some of my hands posted are played different than I would normally do. So I thought calling 99 pre is also fine. Of course the postflop action is now a lot more difficult. I called the river and was right. But I'm not sure if the call can be profitable in the long run?
 
Aces2w1n

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thats a flaw there.

ur opponents are unknown so mixing up ur play means nothing. tho gives experience on diff lines

make sure your aware of your surroundings
 
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seventhsense

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i beg to differ ... its important we control the hand early against a weaker player.

fold equity increases so we can easily defend the hand easier and get value from broadway hands before they hit ... villain can do the mistake to float us and then they fold when miss turn.

99 is a good hand but best played aggressive oop... we can setmine but generally oop we dont get paid off but 99 is strong enough we dont need a set to make money

What evidence is there that he is a weaker player?

I think you're 3 betting for the wrong reasons. Yes, technically you can 3 bet this for value. However, we are 3 betting the CO, meaning he won't be calling quite as light so it is thin value. When you don't flop a set, you have an inflated pot oop with an 81% chance of an overcard. You say get floated as if it's a good thing with this hand. By the turn the odds of us having two overcards is fairly high. Are you really barreling on that kind of board?

3 betting just puts us in tough spots. It's not awful but just not necessary. Flat and play the hand out that way.
 
Delvuter

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Here you are a calling station. This is basically just a set mine scenario. If you get your set do your best to extract money from OOP if we don't hit our set get out. As played for sure fold on the turn, that board is as wet as the get. Calling right there is the very definition of a fish.
 
Aces2w1n

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What evidence is there that he is a weaker player?

I think you're 3 betting for the wrong reasons. Yes, technically you can 3 bet this for value. However, we are 3 betting the CO, meaning he won't be calling quite as light so it is thin value. When you don't flop a set, you have an inflated pot oop with an 81% chance of an overcard. You say get floated as if it's a good thing with this hand. By the turn the odds of us having two overcards is fairly high. Are you really barreling on that kind of board?

3 betting just puts us in tough spots. It's not awful but just not necessary. Flat and play the hand out that way.


hmm not weak sorry hes a LAG just he will have a wider range making him weaker
 
IPlay

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Pretty clear 3 bet pre, I'd sometimes flat vs nits but I'm 3 betting vs this villain all day. Calling to set mine 99 against a LAG opening from a steal position is weak and we are going to fold the best hand a lot post. It is also pretty hard to set mine vs a weak range and get paid.

Call down is pretty bad regardless of the results.
 
antonis32123

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I think I would 3bet to this villain preflop ,
then on flop I would make a cbet ,
another one , not very big of course , half pot or less , also on the turn
and if he hasn't fold ,then on the river I would check and fold to his bet .
 
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Pretty clear 3 bet pre, I'd sometimes flat vs nits but I'm 3 betting vs this villain all day. Calling to set mine 99 against a LAG opening from a steal position is weak and we are going to fold the best hand a lot post. It is also pretty hard to set mine vs a weak range and get paid.

Call down is pretty bad regardless of the results.

So he calls your 3 bet and then floats you almost always. Are you just barreling off, or check/calling to let him bluff off? Either way how are we not getting pushed off our hand a lot? And if we arent, then we can also not get pushed off in a smaller pot.

His 3 bet calling range is likely far tighter CO vs BB as I've already said so how often are we actually doing this for value? Who said we are flatting to set mine? It just keeps the pot smaller with a hand that's tough to get to showdown with.

If there is evidence that he will call the 3 bet light then it's fine, but we have no evidence of that.

I have never said 3 betting is bad. It will be profitable. You just said 'clear' 3 bet and I could not disagree more. This isn't definite. Flatting is absolutely fine.

Also, we only have 93 hands on him. I play far tighter than that and have starts to my session where I run stats like that. I'm not LAG at all.
 
IPlay

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So he calls your 3 bet and then floats you almost always. Are you just barreling off, or check/calling to let him bluff off? Either way how are we not getting pushed off our hand a lot? And if we arent, then we can also not get pushed off in a smaller pot.

On this run out I would bet flop, x/call/fold turn depending on sizing and consider river. I really can't say all my strategies for all flops and runs out because ain't nobody got time for that. In a 3 bet pot with us as the aggressor villains perceived fold equity on broadway boards is very low while if we flat he has tons of fold equity on broadway boards. People generally play more straightforward in 3 bet pots. Also with us as the aggressor and by 3 betting we are taking it down pre or on the flop often so that is how we are not getting pushed off our hand a lot.

His 3 bet calling range is likely far tighter CO vs BB as I've already said so how often are we actually doing this for value? Who said we are flatting to set mine? It just keeps the pot smaller with a hand that's tough to get to showdown with.

Well I wasn't addressing you directly and other posters said "call to set mine and fold flop if we miss" What makes you think his 3 bet calling range is going to be soooo tight in a steal vs steal situation? You think people are not calling 3 bets light in position vs the blinds these days? First you say we shouldn't 3 bet because he will float us and steal the pot often and now you are saying we shouldn't 3 bet because his continuing range will be too tight, both wrong IMO but I think you need to pick one. I agree this is a tough hand to get to showdown with so why not take it down pre/on the flop with a 3 bet?

If there is evidence that he will call the 3 bet light then it's fine, but we have no evidence of that.

I mean, calling light 3 bets in position is pretty standard these days and I doubt a 31/27 is a nit only continuing with 1010+ AQo+ while IP. Also, we are ahead of his opening range and in your scenario he folds a lot to 3 bets so why not just take it down pre when we are going to have the best hand often instead of going to a flop OOP with no initiative against a wide range that might not let us get to showdown easily.

I have never said 3 betting is bad. It will be profitable. You just said 'clear' 3 bet and I could not disagree more. This isn't definite. Flatting is absolutely fine.

This being a clear 3 bet is a part of my strategy and doesn't have to be a part of everyones. I don't really care if you agree or not. Flatting I'll reserve for the nits and I'll 3 bet the loose players.

Also, we only have 93 hands on him. I play far tighter than that and have starts to my session where I run stats like that. I'm not LAG at all.

Yeah sure, we can look looser than we are over a smaller sample size like this but that is more of a statistical outlier and more often than not this is going to be pretty close to his true stats.
 
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Figaroo2

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There is a lot of chit chat about the preflop action but not much on the call down.
We have discussed 99 in the blinds in the Polished Poker thread.
You can flat here or 3bet, both are +EV against someone opening this wide.
At 10nl it is likely higher EV to 3bet simply because the players hand reading skills are not as good at this level and 99 oop is going to be tricky for anyone.
In terms of equity 99 v a 27% opening range is a 60/40 fav and the 4 doesn't change it that much on the turn.
There is no way I am folding on either the flop or the turn here.
The Ace on the end changes things a lot, after this card falls we are a 32/68 dog, so you could argue without reads a fold on the end is correct against this players range.
Check calling all the way down is fraught with difficultly and you end up guessing, a problem arising from the flat and why 3betting pre is likely to be better in the long run.
Therefore as played I would be looking to simplify this hand by either leading out or check raising this flop, looking to fold out his overcards; or as I prefer cc flop and overbet lead out on the turn here to charge his draws and fold out his overs. This isn't a hand where I want to keep in his air as there will be too many scare cards for us on the river. Players at this level don't know how to respond to the overbet lead on the flop play and will usually fold unless they are very strong.
 
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I'm curious as to what hand u put him on to call there on the river?? If u thought he was bluffing...why/with what hand? Those kinds of questions can help dictate ur actions in future spots, rather than memorizing +EV lines for every diff hand u play. Hint: most people aren't bluffing there most of the time.

Also, I agree with a lead out on flop or check-raise flop line (if not 3 betting pre). Oop with a hand that's quickly losing equity (like mid pairs), I prefer to see where I'm at early.
 
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This being a clear 3 bet is a part of my strategy and doesn't have to be a part of everyones. I don't really care if you agree or not. Flatting I'll reserve for the nits and I'll 3 bet the loose players.

That was a little hostile.

So if it doesn't have to be part of everyone's strategy, then the decision isn't clear at all.

You seem to think I'm arguing against a 3 bet, I'm not. It can definitely be justified. However, you spoke in absolutes and I feel that is misleading for new players because both options are available here.
 
IPlay

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That was a little hostile.

So if it doesn't have to be part of everyone's strategy, then the decision isn't clear at all.

You seem to think I'm arguing against a 3 bet, I'm not. It can definitely be justified. However, you spoke in absolutes and I feel that is misleading for new players because both options are available here.

Yeah that came off a little bold but it is the truth. You were 100% arguing against a 3bet though. People reading this forum should already know there is no absolutes in poker and when someone uses a term like "clear" it is meaning it is the best play, not the only play.
 
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I'm definitely 3betting this preflop for value. The last thing you want to do with a hand like 99 is to play out of position without the initiative.

As played, I'm check-calling the flop too.

Once the turn card comes, without a heart in your hand, I would honestly just check-fold. Think about all the nasty river cards that can come out: any heart, any J, Q, K or A. Also consider the fact that when you check-call the turn, rather than check-raising, it's hard for you to represent a flush. So now you're going to face that third barrel pretty often, which combined with a scare card, puts you in a nasty spot.

On the river, I would check-fold here too. I mean, there are definitely some bluffs in the villain's range, such as any 2 broadways not featuring an A or T but featuring a heart (eg. KhJc), but I think that he has it more often than not. In your initial post, you said that you think the villain's betting range is polarised here. Might I ask why you think that? He doesn't have to worry about you having a flush because you've just check-called the flop and turn, plus it's very difficult for you to have a straight (how many 3's are in your range?), so he's pretty safe to value bet any Ace here. He could easily have a hand like AhJc here. Villain can also have sets and flushes himself. He probably checks back the river with a T but he's betting all his Ax hands, 2 pair combos like A4, sets and flushes. There's just too much here that has you beat.
 
IPlay

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If a spot is a clear 3bet with AA it doesn't mean that option 2 is -EV, it is just less EV. Deflate your ego a little and open your mind. You are not always going to be right. It's ok. That is why we discuss hands here.
 
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Pretty clear 3 bet pre, I'd sometimes flat vs nits but I'm 3 betting vs this villain all day. Calling to set mine 99 against a LAG opening from a steal position is weak and we are going to fold the best hand a lot post. It is also pretty hard to set mine vs a weak range and get paid.

Call down is pretty bad regardless of the results.

I tend to 3Bet this against LAGS. but how low would your pairs go before you are flatting.

Im probably 3 Betting 88+ flatting 44-77 and maybe 3 Bet 22 & 33 but mostly flat them
 
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