$10 NLHE 6-max: hard spot

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 20/15/6

PokerStars - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (CO): 171 BB
BTN: 107.7 BB (VPIP: 23.53, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 2.86, hands: 110)
SB: 101.7 BB (VPIP: 19.11, PFR: 17.37, 3Bet Preflop: 4.85, Hands: 418)
BB: 234.3 BB (VPIP: 21.34, PFR: 16.80, 3Bet Preflop: 7.18, Hands: 527)
UTG: 34.3 BB (VPIP: 80.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 22)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has J:club: A:spade:

UTG calls 1 BB, Hero raises to 4 BB, BTN calls 4 BB, fold, fold, UTG calls 3 BB

Flop: (13.5 BB, 3 players) 2:heart: A:diamond: 8:diamond:
UTG checks, Hero bets 7.7 BB, BTN calls 7.7 BB, UTG calls 7.7 BB

Turn: (36.6 BB, 3 players) 3:heart:
UTG checks, Hero checks, BTN bets 24 BB, fold, Hero calls 24 BB

River: (84.6 BB, 2 players) T:spade:
Hero checks, BTN bets 54 BB, fold

BTN wins 80.8 BB

I could have bet half pot myself ott but felt like checking then and his bet looked mighty though its not huge and thought about folding immediately ott. but couldnt really figure it out looks bluffy. doesnt raise pre so no ak? dont raise flop so does he actually have a set? big bet otr but why bluff at this point with all his money? comment bet sizing of yours at this point and opinions on his actions. thnx in advance!

More on flop.

Bet turn obviously.

Call river as played, you can't play AJ so weak like that and fold to a river bet, asking to be bluffed.

So I am confused why you checked the turn. Did you put him on AK or AQ? Were you worried about 45? If so, why call his bet and subsequently fold on the river?

Once you check/call the turn you really open us your opponents bluffing range, so it needs to widen your calling range. As played you should call the river. However, you should bet the turn in the future unless you're specifically doing it to invoke more of your opponents bluffing range to bet the river.

You recede initiative on the turn. So as you played, I bet the turn, and eventually I make check on the river, but in this situation better for me is also bet on the river, because you're out of position and opponent can bluff you. But if you want check on the river - here IMO I risk and I make a call. Top pair with J kicker looks good to call.

Trying to analyse this situations is in my experience much easier when you understand your equity.
Lets ask ourselves what he is calling with on the flop. If he is calling with AQ down to A2 suited or not or any pair 99 or lower you have around 63% equity (ie you are 63% fav)
A flush draw is also reasonable, you are still 63% fav against KQ diamonds which goes up to 80% after the brick on the turn.
As you stated you can exclude AK to 10 10+ because there was no re raise preflop
Looking at things this way you should not have been scared by the turn card and should in theory be betting the turn for value and pricing out the flush draw..
If he calls a large value bet on the turn you have to re-evaluate his range to include hands that beat you and check the river. Call on the river if you are getting a reasonable price.
Some times he will float and bluff so sometimes you must call. If you always fold the river with marginal hands you will be bluffed mercilessly.

Yoshimiii said:

More on flop.

Bet turn obviously.

Call river as played, you can't play AJ so weak like that and fold to a river bet, asking to be bluffed.

Click to expand...

This. Keep in mind that he flatted your 3-bet after a limp, I'm expecting he'd pop it up with AQ/AK. Occasionally he shows up with A10, 2p, or a set, but a lot of the time he blanked on FDs.

flat-called... He's just waiting for you to slow down and he steals the pot with ATC looks like you've played a bit together as well. Good fold equity against you..... I doubt he has 54 he's only at 23% and if you raise the turn being behind and he flat calls... The river may favour you especially if the flush doesn't come out and you get an ace or a jack.

I remember early on when I was reading up... Found out that the turn card is the most misplayed street in poker.