$10 NLHE 6-max: Good fold?

freddydr87

freddydr87

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Vilain is a louse agresive regular i have some notes off him,his stats are 26/22 and 20 off fold to 3bet(he doesnt like to fold 3bets), wath leads me to think he could have a lot off bluffes,as well as value hands like Set an 2pairs.
I need to win 35% off time to be a brake even call,do you think he has enough bluffes(we are deep,so peaple tent to play more value oriented when deep,no ones wanth to gamble 150 bb in a bluff)
https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/2qxcfu3
 
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gustav197poker

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Fold reasonable in my opinion. This villain should have at least one set he connected and is not looking to give up. If this is the case, there would also be another possibility to fold on the flop. Considering the size the V raised in this 3-bets pot, possibly the most exploitative option is the fold on the flop, plus we have a better SPR margin so we don't get too involved here.
I think the main question would be which hands raise 4.4X on the flop. If the answer is overpairs, we defeated 12 combos and if we think we are behind sets or double pairs, we could have up to 18 combos against. Obviously if we think that this guy doesn't have bluffs in his range we should fold on the flop, otherwise it was a good fold on the turn.
Greetings.
 
Aballinamion

Aballinamion

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Vilain is a louse agresive regular i have some notes off him,his stats are 26/22 and 20 off fold to 3bet(he doesnt like to fold 3bets), wath leads me to think he could have a lot off bluffes,as well as value hands like Set an 2pairs.
I need to win 35% off time to be a brake even call,do you think he has enough bluffes(we are deep,so peaple tent to play more value oriented when deep,no ones wanth to gamble 150 bb in a bluff)
https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/2qxcfu3


Hi dear mate, thanks for sharing. How many hands have you played with this Villain, because 3-bet and fold to 3-bet preflop are very tricky stats for a short volume of hands played.

Because if we consider a loose aggressive player is very rare at the micro limits and most of them are just tilted or aggro donkeys. I know many regulars like to use the sizing of 4x to 3-bet out of position, but when there is a Loose Aggressive, sitting on the BTN, and I have history with this player, I would either 3-bet for a size that could fit to the BB's stealing range versus BTN, something like 3.3x, 3.5x, or I would call preflop with JJ+ and even ATs+, BTN being LAG, of course, because there is a great chance that when we 3-bet preflop that Loose Aggressive Kid might fold and we don't want this risk, specially when we are heavy value with TT+ for example.

If the opponent is a real attentive and concentrative loose aggressive player, it would have noticed very easily the sizing used for your 3-bet preflop BB vs BTN, and perceived polarization, turning your decision much more harder postflop, because we don't really 3-bet very much for bluff at the micros, so it becomes very easy to realize the we are very strong preflop and we (BTN's shoes) can extract a lot of value for the times we hit something OTF, or a good draw, for instance.

This is why I like to check a lot of position, even when I do 3-bet preflop, even when I have KK and AA, because I avoid to make the pot grow too much or simply to get check raised for a player that I am certain that either it is weak or it is playing way more hands than it should, and I am going want to kill myself after the guys jams OTT, because we are both deep stacked, etc.

To be sincere, I am analysing hands here for about 6 months and to be very candid, I never saw any player, in any situation, flatting preflop with KK+ and AKs, it seems that everyone 3-bets the top premium (at the micros) a 100% of times regardless of position, even when the SB is loose aggressive and opens steal versus BB, and the BB is holding AA, BB is going to 3-bet a 100% of times and get at least 80% of fold equity of any type of player.

I can't say if your fold OTT is good or bad, considering there aren't too many Loose Aggressive at the micros, but a bunch of aggro donkeys, and for these aggro retards we are not folding not even the weakest part of our range, i.e, we never fold KK+ versus these guys, so it is kindda confusing to state whether your fold was a good fold or a bad one.

Regards;

Carlos 'Aballinamion' Barbosa
 
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I would need pretty good reads on villain not to shove on that flop. As you said, he's aggro, and could have a lot of semi bluffs and outright bluffs in his range.
 
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