$10 NLHE 6-max: To gamble, or not

IPlay

IPlay

Bum hunts 25NL
Silver Level
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PokerStars - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 70.5 BB (VPIP: -, PFR: -, 3Bet Preflop: -, hands: 1)
BB: 212 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 5)
Hero (UTG): 128.7 BB
MP: 136.1 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 5)
CO: 96.5 BB (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 3)
BTN: 55.1 BB (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 5)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 8:heart: 7:heart:

Hero raises to 3 BB, MP raises to 5 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 2 BB

Flop: (11.5 BB, 2 players) 9:heart: 7:diamond: Q:heart:
Hero checks, MP raises to 131.1 BB and is all-in, Hero ???
 
D

DunningKruger

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If you want to, sure, go nuts. I do think you have enough equity vs his range of holdings to make that call and at the very least break even on it (you're +EV here imo) based on what an idiotic play such as this one usually ends up turning out to be. Some people are probably going to disagree with me on that, but if we're going to get stacked by somebody it's better a moron does it than a good tough player or even a nit. Anyway just don't steam if he shows like for example 55 after turning the only 5 left that doesn't fill your flush. If you're the type that's prone to let that bother you then folding might be a better option.
 
akaRobbo

akaRobbo

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Snap calling.

His fish 3bet pre screams AA KK or AQ type hands which we have great equity against. QQ is possible too though which is a bit of a ball ache but still isn't making me fold due to the amount of spazz in his range too.
 
M

MinhANguyen

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Depends on whether on not you're in the mood to flip for your stack. It's not going to be +EV by that much, even with all the dead money in the pot due to rake.
 
IPlay

IPlay

Bum hunts 25NL
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Depends on whether on not you're in the mood to flip for your stack. It's not going to be +EV by that much, even with all the dead money in the pot due to rake.

Good point on the rake, I thought it would be slightly +EV but after rake it might be breakeven or slight -EV
 
IPlay

IPlay

Bum hunts 25NL
Silver Level
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Factoring in rake (12.9BB) I need 50% equity for a call here. It was 47% before rake but after factoring rake in, it is a losing call against the range I assigned him. I think there could be a solid argument made that villain isn't shoving a set like this too often, but you never know read less. He could also spaz here with just AK no draws, never know on Bovada. With that said if you add in a few % equity due to "Bovada" it may still be break even, lol.

http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: 9h7dQh
Equity Win Tie
MP2 48.35% 48.35% 0.00% { 8h7h }
MP3 51.65% 51.65% 0.00% { QQ+, AQs, AhKh, AQo }
 
akaRobbo

akaRobbo

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Hate how rake affects calls like that. Ruins the game!
 
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