$10 NLHE 6-max: folding overpair 3bpot

YNWA

YNWA

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I'm not in the habit of folding over pairs in 3b pot's to often but how about here ? stats on villain at the time were a little tighter than showing but i'm not sure if i can filter the hand to the time it was played on hem2 for the stats at the exact moment of the hand.

raise and 3b size means getting it in with the spr is worse for me here ? his raise size is pretty big so i'm expecting sets and Tj maybe not sure i can expect much AJ KJ or draws like this. I also have the Ac so block a good chunk of fd's , maybe QQ KK or even AK ?

Thanks.

UTG: $12.34 - VPIP: 21, PFR: 18, 3B: 3, AF: 7.5, Hands: 103
CO: $10.53 - VPIP: 32, PFR: 13, 3B: 0, AF: 1.9, hands: 123
Hero (BTN): $11.98 -
SB: $9.40 - VPIP: 22, PFR: 14, 3B: 0, AF: 0.0, Hands: 59
BB: $21.18 - VPIP: 21, PFR: 14, 3B: 5, AF: 2.3, Hands: 155

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is BTN with A :club: A :spade:
UTG raises to $0.20, 1 fold, Hero raises to $0.66, 2 folds, UTG calls $0.46

Flop: ($1.47) 8 :club: T :club: J :heart: (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $0.90, UTG raises to $3.07, Hero ?
 
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AlfieAA

AlfieAA

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I think more hands beat you here than what you beat...lots of sets/2pairs and the straight ....looks like he's trying to protect against fd's...I think a fold could be made on such a scary board and by the way villians actions went...

You would need to try and find your equity by putting in all of villians possible range....I've not got a clue how to do that yet, but something I'm gonna work on.
 
duggs

duggs

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snap fold, holding the Ac really hurts us here. 88/TT/JJ all squarely in his range. QQ/KK will either 4bet pre or not raise flop. KQcc is like the only realistic bluffing candidate unless you give him credit for hands like 9T/89 as bluffs which is pretty optimistic. and even then there are good reasons for him not to bluff here at all
 
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hffjd2000

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I think he is either bluffing or a strong hand.
Believe more he is leading on the flop.
His check raise is so scary.
 
Keith_MM

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snap fold, holding the Ac really hurts us here. 88/TT/JJ all squarely in his range. QQ/KK will either 4bet pre or not raise flop. KQcc is like the only realistic bluffing candidate unless you give him credit for hands like 9T/89 as bluffs which is pretty optimistic. and even then there are good reasons for him not to bluff here at all

not sure that i'm putting 88/tt/jj in his range at all with his 3% 3bet stat. if it was me i'd be looking at his fold to 3bet stat and taking his perception of heros range into account. If Hero is 3betting 3-4% as well i just don't see him calling the 3bet with 88-JJ and could see him flatting pre with QQ fearing that he may be dominated.Hero would have to be 3betting nearer 8-9 % for villain to start calling 3bets with 88-JJ and then he is likely to be 4betting his QQ. QQ is blocking the straight outs for AK KK and AA and villain still has straight outs himself against AA KK
 
Arjonius

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I think more hands beat you here than what you beat...lots of sets/2pairs and the straight .
Are you considering that the probabilities of various hands that beat you aren't all equal?
 
duggs

duggs

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not sure that i'm putting 88/tt/jj in his range at all with his 3% 3bet stat. if it was me i'd be looking at his fold to 3bet stat and taking his perception of heros range into account. If Hero is 3betting 3-4% as well i just don't see him calling the 3bet with 88-JJ and could see him flatting pre with QQ fearing that he may be dominated.Hero would have to be 3betting nearer 8-9 % for villain to start calling 3bets with 88-JJ and then he is likely to be 4betting his QQ. QQ is blocking the straight outs for AK KK and AA and villain still has straight outs himself against AA KK

why are you assuming villain folds 88-JJ? why are you assuming villain raises QQ as a bluff into a narrow range?
 
Keith_MM

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why are you assuming villain folds 88-JJ? why are you assuming villain raises QQ as a bluff into a narrow range?
thought i made it clear that i wouldn't be looking at this hand in isolation without taking into account villains perception of how hero is playing and how villain typically reacts to 3bets.

If his fold to 3bet is very high then hero would have to have a high 3bet stat for villain to widen his 3bet calling range enough to get those sets into his range.He doesn't look the sort that is going to call 3bets with a wider range than he 3bets .
 
duggs

duggs

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what yes he does? assuming villain makes exploitative pre flop folds at 10nl is optimistic.
 
T

thebigslade

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Villain's opening range is very rarely going to include TJ.

Rule out AK because you have the nut club, and KJ and AJ don't raise. As played I'd say villain has minimum KQc, but most likely a set.
 
Keith_MM

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what yes he does? assuming villain makes exploitative pre flop folds at 10nl is optimistic.

why are you ignoring how villain is perceiving Hero's 3bet range as that will directly influence his 3bet calling range. Villains stats show him to be a reasonable TAG so he is going to adjust his renges according to hero's stats.Without knowing hero's stats we can't tell how he is likely to be adjusting his ranges.
 
duggs

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because we have 100 hand sample and no idea of his win rate. giving him credit for playing perfectly pre flop is absurd. assuming he is going to level us into folding over pairs with his overpair is even more so. the aggregate player at this stake with these stats will call too much and bluff too little.
 
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