$10 NLHE 6-max: Folding the nuts to avoid paying rake: Ax on KQJT board
10NL 6-max zoom on PokerStars
. Villain is unknown but presumably a thinking reg. We're both deep-stacked with effective stack sizes of $28.50 (285bb).
Hero (CO) is dealt Ad Qc
SB posts $0.05
Villain (BB) posts $0.10
Hero (CO) raises to $0.30
Villain (BB) calls $0.20
$0.65 in pot
Flop shows Ks Qh Tc
$0.65 in pot
Turn shows Js
Hero bets $0.34
Villain raises to $28.20 and is ALL-IN
Now this might seem crazy to you, but let me explain my logic for folding: I'm pretty much 100% sure that the villain has Ax here, so I never expect to win this pot outright.
The best I can hope for is a split pot if my opponent has Ax.
The worst: I can actually lose this entire pot if my opponent has Axss and the river is another spade!
Now let's look at rake: max rake paid at 10NL is $1.50, which will be the case if I call here. The pot size that is being shoved over is: [my 34 cents] + [his 34 cents] + [65 cents from previous streets] - [$1.50 rake] = NEGATIVE $0.17
So we're literally fighting for a negative pot here! If I fold, I lose nothing beyond what's already in the pot. If I call and pay rake, I'm losing a further 17 cents!
So basically: best case scenario is I call and lose $0.17, worse case scenario is I call and lose $27.86. Either way I lose, mainly because of rake, but also because of the slight (but possible) chance that I'll be outdrawn to a flush.
So do you think that folding the nuts is correct here?