$10 NLHE 6-max: Folding AA on the river?

nordcapp · Jan 24, 2017

Hero(UTG) $19.88 - VP:22 PFR:19 AF:4.0 W:43|50 STL:55|73 3B:9|0 CB:71|0 N:5.56 hands:94
Portland56(MP) $10 - VP:31 PFR:21 AF:1.3 W:47|33 STL:43|53 3B:11|25 CB:63|17 N:-38.07 Hands:89
Danimal87(CO) $9.60 - VP:20 PFR:0 AF: W:0| STL:0| 3B:0| CB: N:-0.40 Hands:5
Sergan(BTN) $19.64 - VP:26 PFR:22 AF:1.6 W:25|50 STL:70|92 3B:0|100 CB:75|0 N:1.37 Hands:81
Bashka(SB) $12.06 - VP:23 PFR:16 AF:0.3 W:43|33 STL:50|69 3B:11|50 CB:50|50 N:-3.55 Hands:56
HartmanSSS(BB) $41.56 - VP:17 PFR:17 AF:1.7 W:75|100 STL:57|100 3B:5|100 CB:33| N:20.51 Hands:41

Pre Flop: Hero(UTG) with [Ah,Ad]
Hero(UTG) raises 0.30, Portland56(MP) folds, Danimal87(CO) folds, Sergan(BTN) calls 0.30, Bashka(SB) calls 0.25, HartmanSSS(BB) folds

Flop: (2h,9s,5h) (3 players) pot 1
Bashka(SB) checks, Hero(MP) bets 0.48, Sergan(BTN) calls 0.48, Bashka(SB) folds

Turn: Jd (2 players) pot 1.96
Hero bets 1.19, Sergan(BTN) calls 1.19

River: 7s (2 players) pot 4.34
Hero checks, Sergan(BTN) bets 2.20, Hero??

I didn't bet on the river since BTN did not 3bet and did not have QQ+. 9x and 1010 won't call my third barrel. Most likely BTN is set mining or has 9J. BTN most likely did not have flush draw because he didn't raise on the flop. Is it best that I fold here?

gosunoob · Jan 24, 2017

So in this position once we've checked the river, I think this is 100% a check/call situation. You raised pre-flop, then bet on the 2 following streets, and the board while it ran out very well for AA, didn't run well for most of your other hands that you'd be raising pre-flop with.

When you check the river in position, honestly it looks like you have AK, whiffed on the board, and are looking for a showdown.

What hands can he have, that AA doesn't beat on this board considering he called a pre-flop raise?

There are only a few specific hands that I would be worried about, but the probability that he has them are extremely slim.

One of them is 8-T. I would say unless it was 8-T of hearts that it's even more unlikely that he has this specific hand.

A second hand that would be concerning is J-9. This is a possible specific hand he might have, and in this case we simply got unlucky when he turned 2-pair. It's a hand that would definitely call your flop bet, however a hand that would more likely raise you on the turn with the flush draw and straight draw on board.

A similar story goes for any type of small set that he might have been playing (22,55,99). I think if he had any of these hands, when the turn brings in a possible straight draw along with a flush draw, we are getting raised most of the time.

All that being said, I think his most likely holdings in this situation is something like 9-T suited.

Considering the very few specific hands that we lose to, and the fact that most of those hands would probably raise us at some point in the hand, I would definitely consider this a call on the river after checking.
I actually would prefer checking on the river, since we are very vulnerable to getting raised on the river if we bet.

For half the pot in this spot, with this specific hand and board and the way it ran out, I am calling 100% of the time.

Pbland · Jan 24, 2017

I agree with gosunoob, check/calling is a good play. I was thinking his hand range was T9h, KQh, QJh. Could have a set, but I would think a raise would've come on the turn.

Ficomkd · Jan 24, 2017

i thing the same no way to fold aa here if i am scared for two pairs ill only call

nordcapp · Jan 25, 2017

Actually I called but ran into villain's 77. Unlucky this time, but I shouldn't have been too scared.

AntonEast · Jan 25, 2017

I also agree on Check/Calling the river. Unfortunately he beat you on the last card, but I don't think you could've done anything different and I If he calls all the way with 77 against your AA you will be winning in the long run.

fletchdad · Jan 25, 2017

gosunoob said:
So in this position once we've checked the river, I think this is 100% a check/call situation. You raised pre-flop, then bet on the 2 following streets, and the board while it ran out very well for AA, didn't run well for most of your other hands that you'd be raising pre-flop with.

When you check the river in position, honestly it looks like you have AK, whiffed on the board, and are looking for a showdown.

What hands can he have, that AA doesn't beat on this board considering he called a pre-flop raise?

There are only a few specific hands that I would be worried about, but the probability that he has them are extremely slim.

One of them is 8-T. I would say unless it was 8-T of hearts that it's even more unlikely that he has this specific hand.

A second hand that would be concerning is J-9. This is a possible specific hand he might have, and in this case we simply got unlucky when he turned 2-pair. It's a hand that would definitely call your flop bet, however a hand that would more likely raise you on the turn with the flush draw and straight draw on board.

A similar story goes for any type of small set that he might have been playing (22,55,99). I think if he had any of these hands, when the turn brings in a possible straight draw along with a flush draw, we are getting raised most of the time.

All that being said, I think his most likely holdings in this situation is something like 9-T suited.

Considering the very few specific hands that we lose to, and the fact that most of those hands would probably raise us at some point in the hand, I would definitely consider this a call on the river after checking.
I actually would prefer checking on the river, since we are very vulnerable to getting raised on the river if we bet.

For half the pot in this spot, with this specific hand and board and the way it ran out, I am calling 100% of the time.

Well said.

c9h13no3 · Jan 25, 2017

Duunno why everyone is saying check/call. Passive & loose opponent seems like an obvious bet/fold spot to me. Villain will call more often that he will bluff or valuebet worse.

C9's guide to playing overpairs in early position:

1) Raise preflop
2) Postflop, bet/fold to a raise until showdown

nordcapp · Jan 25, 2017

I think chk/call can see the cards of villain, but bet/fold doesn't. These two ways cost us same amount of chips.

Aces2w1n · Jan 27, 2017

AP

We need to be betting river... a lot of calling hands we crush will call.... we are losing value from AJ Jx QQ KK

if we check river we are trying to induce bluffs...but usually you do this against aggro players but the thing is there is no evidence hes chasing

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$10 NLHE 6-max: Folding AA on the river?

nordcapp

Rising Star

gosunoob

Enthusiast

Pbland

Rock Star

Ficomkd

Enthusiast

nordcapp

Rising Star

AntonEast

Rock Star

fletchdad

Jammin................

c9h13no3

Is drawing with AK

nordcapp

Rising Star

Aces2w1n

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