$10 NLHE 6-max: Folding a set . . .

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ScottishMatt

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poker stars $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 2232084
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

CO: $11.33
BTN: $10.25
SB: $15.94
BB: $19.56
Hero (UTG): $10.00

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is UTG with 8
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8
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Hero raises to $0.30, CO calls $0.30, BTN calls $0.30, 2 folds

Flop: ($1.05) 9
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8
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J
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(3 players)
Hero bets $0.70, CO calls $0.70, BTN raises to $3.18, Hero folds, CO folds

Discussed this on Skype somewhat. I'll post it here to get perspectives from a few others. Villain who raises is playing 22/18/30 (VP/PF/AFq). I'm not going to break my thought process down here. I just want to know if you guys approve of ditching the "never fold a set at the micros" stratagem perhaps this once?
 
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bnasp2

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Maybe its not winning strategy, but I would call here. I often catch FD and SD, which gives hime good odds, but still call for me.
At other cases I hit 2 pairs.
I would say that you have like 50% equity, so pot odds are ok.

But will smallest set and good villain, you can fold this without loosing much money.
 
Matt Vaughan

Matt Vaughan

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Gii. We'll be behind a lot but villain can raise combo draws and also TP + draw type hands, which we're doing fine against. Obviously we're not crushing his range, so it's going to be marginal either way, but I think it's fine to gii with the money that's already in the pot.
 
MediaBLITZ

MediaBLITZ

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Need more info on this guy and a good idea on what he is thinking about me before dropping this hand. Could very easily be running a squeeze with a FL/STRT draw. He sure doesn't seem to want anyone around which makes you go hmmmm... So a more complete idea of his tendencies beyond preflop is needed.
 
acky100

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this looks like the easiest fold in the world!
 
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baudib1

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I assume Acky is joking. We have 30% vs. QTdd so we can obviously call profitably.
 
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buster999

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I raise. If hes drawing. you are ahead plus you have a redraw to the nuts if he has straight/flush draw.
 
Aleksei

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Dude, you have 8 outs to a boat. You have like 30% equity vs QTdd, and BTN's range has to include a nonzero number of made hands you're already ahead of. And you're up vs two people so you have decent implied odds in addition to already having correct pot odds to call (you probably have more like 40% equity). Neither calling nor shoving would be terrible, but folding is bad.
 
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ScottishMatt

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The fact is I'm a fairly straightforward player who is generally only betting if I have it and yet I'm far more aggressive than him. My AFq runs at 50, compared to his 30. I don't know if you bothered to read the OP this time Aleksei but in case you missed it he runs 22/18/30. What that means is he never bluffs postflop. Now tell me what range a passive player raises here that I have enough equity to GII with. Looking at stove right now I'm getting 27%. You recommend I put my stack in with 27% equity?

Edit - OK I'll be generous, I'll give him J9s. Stove says 31%. Hell I'll give him JdTd. Stove says 32. The absolute best case scenario is that I have 32% equity. Far more likely I have 27% though.
 
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Aleksei

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I can't for the life of me figure out a range against which we just have 27%. Assuming a range of {JJ,99,QTs,JTs,AdTd,KdTd}, which includes a ton of sets and no 2-pair type hands (and honestly I refuse to believe anyone would be nitty enough to not try and bet top two for protection here), we STILL have 33% equity -- enough to call.
 
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Matt Vaughan

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Honestly, guys, not that I think discussing this is worthless, but let's all just realize that this is going to be VERY close to 0 EV.
 
Aleksei

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Honestly, guys, not that I think discussing this is worthless, but let's all just realize that this is going to be VERY close to 0 EV.
I agree.

Still, I don't think we should get into the habit of folding sets or encourage it. Folding trips sure, if the spot is ugly, but sets? They're bloody redrawing hands AGAINST drawing hands.
 
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ScottishMatt

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Villain has no drawing hands here. Every hand he raises is made. Simple as that.

I don't know if you realise just how ****ing passive this guy is, but when I was playing fit or fold postflop play I ran an AFq of 40. Most passive fish I see at the tables are within the 38-45 range as well. If fit or fold = 40 AFq just how many draws do you think 30 AFq is raising here?
 
Matt Vaughan

Matt Vaughan

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Yes but Matt keep in mind that we only NEED 30.6% equity to breakeven in this spot (technically not quite right since he's not all in).
 
Aces2w1n

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shoving everytime i'm in this situation... If your folding this hand... quit poker simple ..

$10,000 ... $1mil dollars it don't matter i'm calling


If your folding this please don't show your hand... cuz you'll be a tight weak player.
 
Matt Vaughan

Matt Vaughan

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Honestly, guys, not that I think discussing this is worthless, but let's all just realize that this is going to be VERY close to 0 EV.

..
 
AlfieAA

AlfieAA

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I'm guessing he hit a higher set and is scared of the flop, esp with 3 players in it, so he's hoping a smaller set will snap call and a drawer will fold...I would prob fold here too, not beating much if its a made hand.
 
acky100

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shoving everytime i'm in this situation... If your folding this hand... quit poker simple ..

$10,000 ... $1mil dollars it don't matter i'm calling


If your folding this please don't show your hand... cuz you'll be a tight weak player.

lololol
 
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