$10 NLHE 6-max: Fold AKs pre VS TAG?

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 25/19/3.2

I ran terribly today, but was wondering if I have to consider folding AKs preflop here against a TAG with these stats. Also: is the 1.50 raise too much?

pokerstars, Hold'em No Limit - $0.05/$0.10 ($0.02 ante) - 6 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

UTG: $14.92 (149 bb)
MP: $17.54 (175 bb)
CO: $14.67 (147 bb)
BU (Hero): $14.22 (142 bb)
SB: $10.35 (104 bb)
BB: $10.00 (100 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.27) Hero is BTN with K♣ A♣
UTG raises to $0.30, 1 fold, CO calls $0.30, Hero 3-bets to $1.50, 2 players fold, UTG 4-bets to $3.90, 1 fold, Hero 5-bets to $14.20 (all-in), UTG calls $10.30

Flop: ($28.97) 9♠ 5♥ Q♥ (2 players, 1 all-in)

Turn: ($28.97) 9♦ (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($28.97) 6♠ (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $28.97 (Rake: $1.30)

Showdown:
BU (Hero) shows K♣ A♣ (a pair of Nines)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 12%, Flop: 2%, Turn: 0%, River: 0%)

UTG shows A♥ A♠ (two pair, Aces and Nines)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 88%, Flop: 98%, Turn: 100%, River: 100%)

UTG wins $27.67

Those stats are certainly TAG, but definitely not NIT. I think your play is fine. Sometimes you run AKs into Aces, and it's just not fun.

IDreamNL said:

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 25/19/3.2

I ran terribly today, but was wondering if I have to consider folding AKs preflop here against a TAG with these stats. Also: is the 1.50 raise too much?

PokerStars, Hold'em No Limit - $0.05/$0.10 ($0.02 ante) - 6 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

UTG: $14.92 (149 bb)
MP: $17.54 (175 bb)
CO: $14.67 (147 bb)
BU (Hero): $14.22 (142 bb)
SB: $10.35 (104 bb)
BB: $10.00 (100 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.27) Hero is BTN with K♣ A♣
UTG raises to $0.30, 1 fold, CO calls $0.30, Hero 3-bets to $1.50, 2 players fold, UTG 4-bets to $3.90, 1 fold, Hero 5-bets to $14.20 (all-in), UTG calls $10.30

Flop: ($28.97) 9♠ 5♥ Q♥ (2 players, 1 all-in)

Turn: ($28.97) 9♦ (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($28.97) 6♠ (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $28.97 (Rake: $1.30)

Showdown:
BU (Hero) shows K♣ A♣ (a pair of Nines)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 12%, Flop: 2%, Turn: 0%, River: 0%)

UTG shows A♥ A♠ (two pair, Aces and Nines)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 88%, Flop: 98%, Turn: 100%, River: 100%)

UTG wins $27.67

Click to expand...

Yeah, you could think about folding preflop, although IMO it is not optimal: the sizing gave for Villain was preposterous for a 4-bet: 2.6x vs your Squeeze: this is a masssive sizing.
We could be easily calling to play in position with one of the best hands ever: AKs.
When we elect to go all-in, we give all the chances for Villain that could now easily fold AQ, AJ, AT, and sometimes even TT, JJ and QQ.
Usually at the micros when players polarize their 3-bet and 4-bet ranges it is only for value (only the aggro donkeys had the guts of polarizing 3-bet and 4-bet with semi-bluffs, for example).
Besides, I don't believe cash is a type of game that we are going all-in preflop in a high frequency.
By going all-in preflop we are giving up our ability to overplay opponents postflop, plus turning a natural low variance game into a high variance one.
There is nothing wrong in going all-in preflop while playing cash games, if you have the proper bankroll management and a very powerful mindset.

Regards;

Carlos 'Aballinamion' Barbosa

You don’t want to be playing for stacks PF unless you’re against some super loose fish/whale. If you are going to my view is that it needs to be QQ+ and even then you’ll have some time’s when you run into AA or a weaker suited hand hits the board. Premium hands don’t just deserve to win and so don’t feel the need to play for stacks every time. Build a decent pot PF to apply pressure and help them make post flop mistakes, then extract value post flop when the board favours you. If not let it go and find another spot to take their money.

I made a similar blunder a while ago and did some rough maths on shoving AKs here (https://www.cardschat.com/forum/cash-game-hand-analysis-50/20-nlhe-6-max-aks-pf-456031/)

If you put yourself in the other players shoes and ask what are they calling with, most of the time you’re behind in the hand (even vs 22 they’re the favourite) and if you’ve done well you’re in the 50-60% range to win the hand, you’re essentially just gambling.

It’s fine to raise and reraise but if you shove here you’re losing over half the time you’re called and when you force the fold you’re not picking up that much (yes here you’d have got 40BB but his sizing over your huge bet made it clear he was calling anything)

The above doesn’t counter what the other guys have said - the shove is ok if you’re willing to accept high variance swings on coin flips.

Carlos’ points about the hands that may 3bet and fold to the shove are fair, but I find in these lower limits 3bet ranges are very strong so unlikely to have the weaker holdings suggested, and the better ones mentioned are beating you when called.