Originally Posted by John A
Fold pre-flop. River is ubber close because a range you're behind makes little sense here. I guess a % of the time an opponent at these stakes checks this flop w/ a set or over pair (which I'd never recommend doing at these stakes. You don't need balance in this spot, you just need value, and you don't want to check sets on these kinds of boards). Maybe he donks it up w/ AA and gets lucky on the river. But some % of the time he'll also have 9x (89 being the most likely, as 2 pairs bet this flop a ton as well). No turned draw really makes sense that he c/c's with except maybe TdJd, maybe KdTd, but still think he bets that a lot.
It's micros, so I guess you fold here, and maybe he just hit it. But his range is pretty odd here.
I do agree fold pre is probably best course of action here. However....
I am not too sure about the stats, but it looks to me like UTG is TAG. So if we know he is opening a tight range, and we are live, and if we are confident we can play well postflop, is taking a peek at the flop horrible? Specifically, if our goal is to hit 5 card poker hands, not hit an 8 or a 10, and live in no-man's-land...
Like I might even 3b with this hand sometimes in this spot at micros.... but I sincerely doubt it's optimal... I just play aggro sometimes
. But I don't have any stats available to me online, I 3b people (sometimes) that I think will make mistakes postflop, call 3b too light, etc, and they do seem to play straight forward postflop, especially when OOP. And I also feel like TAG range is still probably 2/3 unpaired hands, and he really only 4b when he has AK+ (depending on H's image here of course, if image is even an issue at $10 NL?).
I must also state that I don't feel my suggestions are right or wrong
, I just want to hear more about preflop thought process that's all.
Just for my own curiosity, it would be great if you and the others would discuss this preflop decision in a little more detail. I would really like to hear more thoughts on this. I may play a little too loose IP sometimes as well....
Now, as far as turn and river...
Like what does this guy really
ever have here? It doesn't make a ton of sense. Like he C/C with a set? C/R AA on the turn? Fishy as hell, but it is micros, so I agree 100% that this is a pretty close spot on the river. I probably get it in on turn, 3b ram it down his throat? Like he's saying he has a 9. Let's go, run the cards dealer...
If I'm wrong, oh well. At least if V shows up with A-9 "sooted" we get it in super good here, but we aren't faced with some strange river spot.