$10 NLHE 6-max: Flopped Set facing river shove on drawy run out.

E

Eisenheim

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I haven't played cash games for a while so just finding my feet again.
Don't like my turn raise - should I be raising the turn more or even shoving?
River decision?


888 Poker - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: 121.6 BB (VPIP: 20.65, PFR: 16.30, 3Bet Preflop: 11.76, hands: 282)
MP: 116.2 BB (VPIP: 40.91, PFR: 27.27, 3Bet Preflop: 6.25, Hands: 90)
Hero (CO): 102.5 BB
BTN: 127.5 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 17.30, 3Bet Preflop: 4.41, Hands: 186)
SB: 188.2 BB (VPIP: 44.13, PFR: 13.41, 3Bet Preflop: 5.56, Hands: 185)
BB: 205.4 BB (VPIP: 27.66, PFR: 23.40, 3Bet Preflop: 10.53, Hands: 50)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 5:club: 5:diamond:

fold, MP raises to 3 BB, Hero calls 3 BB, fold, fold, fold

Flop: (7.5 BB, 2 players) 5:heart: 4:club: T:club:
MP checks, Hero bets 5.6 BB, MP calls 5.6 BB

Turn: (18.7 BB, 2 players) K:spade:
MP bets 13.3 BB, Hero raises to 29.6 BB, MP calls 16.3 BB

River: (77.9 BB, 2 players) A:spade:
MP bets 78 BB and is all-in,

Hero?
 
87shorts

87shorts

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well theres only a few combinations you lose to. AA,KK,QJ,1010. I cant see him raising pre-flop with QJ so that is out. AA,KK,1010 would be a cooler if he did that have that. I would put him on probably AK, AQ, or maybe AJ. I think his river bet was a bluff at the pot hoping to scare you off pairs and sets. I would call. I'm no expert though. how did it play out and what did he have?
 
D

Decent

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I shove the turn, as played call river. Too many combinations we beat, villain could just show up with some whacky broadway straight or a set, but yeah easy call for me.

I bet his hand was JQ clubs.
 
antonis32123

antonis32123

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On the turn I would raise x3 his bet , that means 40 bb , and on the river I'd call his shove .
 
skavenger

skavenger

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Turn and river horrible for you ... but I think you can not fold this hand - so I call!

It will be in front much of the time.
 
E

emarcolino

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Do you have any stats regarding his post-flop agression rate? Any notes on villain about turn and river play? That would help in this situation.

Well, we know he is a loose player (VPIP = 40), so his pre-flop range is big.

With no further info, I would call. You are losing to a few combinations (AA, KK, TT and JQ). I don't think he would check flop with AA or KK often. Maybe he did slowplay TT, and then bet the turn to protect him from a flush or straight draw. And maybe he had QJc for a monster draw. Those are real possibilities. But when he pushes river I put him on busted draws (bluffs) most of the time.

So I think calling is risky, but it is +EV anyway. Unless you have notes or stats indicating he does that for value most of the time.
 
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