This is a discussion on $10 NLHE 6-max: Flopped Set facing river shove on drawy run out. within the online poker forums, in the Cash Game Hand Analysis section; I haven't played cash games for a while so just finding my feet again.
Don't like my turn raise - should I be raising the turn
River:(77.9 BB, 2 players) A♠ MP bets 78 BB and is all-in,
28th September 2016, 10:04 PM
Online Poker at: Poker Stars
well theres only a few combinations you lose to. AA,KK,QJ,1010. I cant see him raising pre-flop with QJ so that is out. AA,KK,1010 would be a cooler if he did that have that. I would put him on probably AK, AQ, or maybe AJ. I think his river bet was a bluff at the pot hoping to scare you off pairs and sets. I would call. I'm no expert though. how did it play out and what did he have?
29th September 2016, 3:39 AM
I shove the turn, as played call river. Too many combinations we beat, villain could just show up with some whacky broadway straight or a set, but yeah easy call for me.
I bet his hand was JQ clubs.
30th September 2016, 8:13 AM
Online Poker at: Pokerstars
2nd October 2016, 2:33 PM
Poker at: pokerstars
On the turn I would raise x3 his bet , that means 40 bb , and on the river I'd call his shove .
5th October 2016, 8:30 PM
re: Poker & $10 NLHE 6-max: Flopped Set facing river shove on drawy run out.
Turn and river horrible for you ... but I think you can not fold this hand - so I call!
It will be in front much of the time.
5th October 2016, 9:30 PM
Do you have any stats regarding his post-flop agression rate? Any notes on villain about turn and river play? That would help in this situation.
Well, we know he is a loose player (VPIP = 40), so his pre-flop range is big.
With no further info, I would call. You are losing to a few combinations (AA, KK, TT and JQ). I don't think he would check flop with AA or KK often. Maybe he did slowplay TT, and then bet the turn to protect him from a flush or straight draw. And maybe he had QJc for a monster draw. Those are real possibilities. But when he pushes river I put him on busted draws (bluffs) most of the time.
So I think calling is risky, but it is +EV anyway. Unless you have notes or stats indicating he does that for value most of the time.